Hong Kong
UJ
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President Donald Trump’s initiative to conclude the conflict in Ukraine seems set to provide significant concessions to Russia, placing Kyiv and its European allies in a challenging position as they confront the possibility of a peace agreement made without their involvement.
However, they are not the only key stakeholders dealing with the repercussions of Trump’s shift toward Russia, which has disrupted years of US foreign policy through rapid diplomacy.
In Beijing, the swift developments are prompting debates regarding the impact of the US peace efforts on Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s meticulously crafted partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside China’s delicate relations with the Trump administration.
Not long ago, China seemed to be on the verge of playing a crucial role in Trump’s efforts toward peace in Ukraine. The US president had frequently indicated that he could collaborate with Xi, leveraging China’s economic influence over Russia to help bring the conflict to a close—an important leverage point as Beijing seeks to avoid a trade dispute with the leading global economy.
This trajectory would have aligned with Beijing’s enduring aim to position itself as a neutral mediator and representative of the Global South, prepared to facilitate peace in the drawn-out conflict—even as NATO accused it of providing dual-use goods to bolster Moscow’s defense sector. China maintains that it engages in “normal trade.”
Now, Beijing finds itself neither actively engaged in negotiations as a Russian ally nor recognized as a serious global actor—at least so far—remaining outside the rapid changes that have reportedly left Chinese officials astounded and scrambling to identify benefits.
The stakes are considerable for Xi, who has nurtured a personal connection with his “old friend” Putin while building stronger ties with Russia, viewing it as a crucial partner in a broader power contest with the West.
The Chinese leader made a calculated decision as Russian tanks advanced into Ukraine three years ago, opting not to denounce the invasion and allowing his country to act as a support system for Putin—importing Russian oil and providing vital supplies—actions that eroded Beijing’s trust with Europe and strengthened cooperation among American allies in Asia with NATO.
Recently, Chinese officials have expressed their support for the “agreement” reached between the US and Russia to initiate peace discussions.
“China backs all efforts that are conducive to peace talks,” stated top diplomat Wang Yi during a United Nations Security Council meeting, coinciding with a gathering of leading Russian and US officials in Saudi Arabia to lay the groundwork for negotiations aimed at ending the hostilities in Ukraine.
However, remarks from American officials recently may have caught the attention of Beijing, hinting at deeper US objectives in its collaboration with Russia.
Top US diplomat Marco Rubio highlighted the potential for future “geopolitical and economic cooperation” between Washington and Moscow as one of four critical topics discussed in Riyadh.
Just days before, Keith Kellogg, the Trump administration’s envoy focused on Russia-Ukraine relations, told a Munich panel that the US aimed “to compel” Putin to undertake actions he finds “uncomfortable,” which could disrupt Russia’s relationships with Iran, North Korea, and China.
Analysts are doubtful that Washington can jeopardize the Russia-China alliance, given their profound alignment against the US-led global order and Moscow’s deep-rooted economic reliance on Beijing.
Nevertheless, any concerns arising in China regarding Trump’s leadership—who has often voiced admiration for both Putin and Xi—could be exacerbated by historical tensions between the two nations.
Historical territorial disputes along their extensive border flared into conflict between the Soviet Union and a nascent People’s Republic of China in 1969, only to see resolution largely achieved during the 1990s.
The diplomatic breakthrough orchestrated by President Richard Nixon and his adviser Henry Kissinger, who capitalized on the rift between the two Communist nations to foster relations with Beijing and shift the Cold War balance in favor of the US, remains significant.
Although such history is unlikely to repeat itself, analysts argue that even a hint of a shift in allegiances could benefit Washington’s strategic pursuits.
“Even if it’s merely 30% of a ‘reverse Nixon’ … that’s bound to instigate doubts,” remarked Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington.
“This will lead Xi Jinping to reconsider the strategic alignment he has meticulously developed with Russia over the past 12 years—questioning its reliability and solidity.”
If a moment arrives when China contemplates an invasion of Taiwan, they will have to consider what Russia’s response might be, referring to the self-governed democratic island that Beijing claims. “For the United States, that presents a deterrent scenario.”
Conversely, some commentators argue that Beijing may possess increased assurance in its partnership with Moscow.
“The Sino-Russian relationship is unique, with a robust foundation and historical institutional ties that have been established over the past decades,” stated Yu Bin, a senior fellow at the Russian Studies Center of East China Normal University in Shanghai.
Yu cited the nations’ joint commitment to multilateralism and the formation of their own international organizations, such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, along with the necessity to maintain border stability. “I don’t think either side would abandon this relationship simply because Trump is in office for four years,” he added.
Instead, China seems to be more concerned that as the US and Russia potentially resolve their differences and establish some level of peace in Ukraine, it would allow the Trump administration to redirect its attention toward China.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth conveyed this notion last week by stating to European allies that the US must prioritize “deterring conflict with China” rather than focusing solely on European security.
Had Trump been unable to engage directly with Putin, Beijing might have sought to alleviate some tensions with the US by collaborating with Washington to bring the Russian leader to the negotiating table—yet, it remains uncertain whether China will play any part in future Ukraine peace discussions.
Nevertheless, analysts suggest that should an agreement be reached, Beijing could offer peacekeeping forces to Ukraine through the United Nations and would likely seek a role in the country’s rebuilding efforts.
Currently, Chinese officials are attempting to mend relations with Europe, recently issuing statements urging “all relevant parties and stakeholders involved in the Ukraine crisis” to “participate actively in the peace talks,” acknowledging Europe’s right to be included in the deliberations.
Simultaneously, China has been highlighting its potential contributions while suggesting that Trump’s newfound alignment with Putin validates Beijing’s previous viewpoints.
On the other hand, Ukraine has hinted at possible efforts to recruit China as an ally.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has drawn little attention from Beijing amid the conflict, hinted at this possibility following a meeting between top Chinese diplomat Wang and Ukrainian officials in Germany.
“It is vital for us to involve China in applying pressure on Putin to conclude the war. We are witnessing, for the first time, China showing interest,” Zelensky remarked at a news briefing on Tuesday. “This interest is primarily driven by the rapid developments occurring now.”
Regarding participants at the negotiation table, the Ukrainian leader insisted that it ought to include nations “prepared to take responsibility for ensuring security, offering assistance, curtailing Putin’s actions, and investing in Ukraine’s recovery.”
