UJ
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President Donald Trump has sparked a direct confrontation with the one nation that stands a chance of rivaling the US in a trade conflict.
Trump’s aggressive actions against China — which is about to experience tariffs exceeding 104% on imports into the US — represent the most significant escalation in his global tariff campaign and could severely impact American consumers with rising prices.
This confrontation is the result of years of US efforts to address perceived trade injustices by China and is the culmination of worsening relations over the last decade due to an assertive and nationalistic shift by a now-hostile superpower that seems poised to challenge US dominance.
This marks a troubling moment in diplomatic relations that will shape the 21st century, highlighting the breakdown of a long-held US objective to prevent escalating tensions from leading to a comprehensive trade war—or something even worse—between these two major powers.
The US has been attempting to navigate China’s rise for over five decades—since President Richard Nixon’s groundbreaking visit to Chairman Mao Zedong to “open” a previously isolated and struggling country and to drive a wedge between Chinese leaders and their communist allies in the Soviet Union. It’s been nearly 25 years since another pivotal moment when the US brought China into the World Trade Organization in an effort to foster democratic change and secure its place in a Western-oriented economic system.
The ultimate failure of those well-meaning attempts is coming to light during Trump’s second term. His rise to power was partly fueled by the backlash against globalization, which has led to the outsourcing of US manufacturing jobs to China and left devastation in its wake.
Trump asserts that numerous countries are eager to negotiate trade agreements to mitigate difficult US tariffs.
However, China does not appear to be among them.
Beijing has dismissed Trump’s warning of retaliation against a previous 34% tariff linked to an earlier wave of duties, asserting it is prepared to fight until the end. The US leader, entangled in an escalating conflict with President Xi Jinping, subsequently felt compelled to follow through on his threat of imposing a tremendous import tax on goods from the world’s second-largest economy.
“Countries like China that choose to retaliate and attempt to intensify their exploitation of American workers are making a significant error,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Tuesday. “President Trump possesses a spine of steel, and he will not yield, nor will America under his guidance.”
The considerable personal and political capital Trump has now committed to this standoff with Xi makes it the most serious pivot of a turbulent week since the US president introduced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in the Rose Garden.
China shows every indication that it believes it can outlast Trump in this confrontation, for which it has been preparing for years. It remains unclear if Trump and his senior officials fully grasp the magnitude of China’s resilience or the costs that could be imposed on American consumers.
If the US president believed that what he consistently praises as his “great relationship” with Xi would lead to a swift concession from China, he is mistaken. The chance of negotiating a trade agreement with Beijing similar to that reached during Trump’s first term—which mostly unraveled during the pandemic—seems increasingly unlikely.
Trump’s assertions that the US has been “raped” and “pillaged” by its trade partners are exaggerated. However, his grievances concerning Beijing’s actions have resonated with multiple presidential administrations. Tensions regularly escalate over concerns such as dumping, market access limitations for US businesses, theft of intellectual property, currency manipulation, and industrial espionage. Previous administrations have pursued targeted enforcement mechanisms and penalties in an attempt to alter China’s conduct. Years of discord have contributed to a bipartisan consensus in Washington that views Beijing as the foremost military and economic threat to US interests.
However, Trump’s confrontational approach is unprecedented. He is convinced he has a unique and perhaps final chance to alter the US-China dynamic, which the US Trade Representative’s office refers to as the largest trading nation in the world. “We have one shot at this,” Trump remarked to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.
Yet, his methods are often impulsive and indiscriminate, lacking a coherent strategy.
Furthermore, it demonstrates a blatant disregard for Chinese dignity and power—a recurring theme in the administration’s interactions with other nations.
Vice President JD Vance, for example, recently ridiculed China when criticizing past US trade policy. “We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the products those Chinese peasants manufacture,” he stated. “That approach won’t lead to economic success, affordable prices, or quality jobs in the United States,” Vance told “Fox & Friends.”
Vance’s derisive comments neglect to acknowledge the significant changes within China’s economy, which now stands as a global leader in innovation across fields like artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and energy production. On Tuesday, Beijing condemned Vance’s remarks as “astonishing,” “lamentable,” “ignorant,” and “disrespectful.”
There are significant political and economic implications for why Xi cannot yield.
The unyielding Chinese leader portrays himself as a pivotal figure in restoring China’s rightful place in the world order. Thus, capitulating to a firm American president is unthinkable. Displaying weakness towards the United States would undermine China’s power and could be perceived as a loss of face—particularly within Asia.
Meanwhile, China’s rhetoric is filled with the notion that the US aims to harm its economy and political system. For instance, Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, denounced US tariffs on Tuesday as “abuse” and an infringement of China’s “legitimate rights.”
In both Beijing and Washington, arrogance is exacerbating hostility.
Chinese state media expresses a firm belief that America is an empire in decline. Instead of projecting strength, Trump’s second term and the political turmoil he incites are viewed as signs of weakness.
Trump’s dramatic behavior and his criticisms of US allies, including those in Southeast Asia, support China’s narrative that the United States is an unreliable partner and that China’s form of capitalism merged with political control offers a superior model.
China’s confidence as it heads into what could be a prolonged trade conflict with the US is rooted in Xi’s strategic adjustments and modernization of the Chinese economy.
“If you are Xi Jinping right now, you might think, ‘Well, in terms of the metrics I care about—technological resilience and self-sufficiency, we are performing well. These tariffs might not impact us immediately,” remarked Lily McElwee, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She added that Xi may believe that beyond China’s core competencies, it possesses “retaliatory tools that can impose costs on the United States as well.”
As a true authoritarian leader, Xi, unlike Trump, has no concerns about how a trade war might impact upcoming elections—like the congressional midterms next year. Though public opinion still holds weight in China, Xi may believe he can handle inflicting more pain on the Chinese populace than Trump can on Americans.
If inflation in the US surges and triggers a recession, it might be the Americans who seek trade reconciliation under terms favorable to Beijing.
American consumers are about to feel the sting.
China has emerged as the leading foreign supplier of goods to the US, constituting approximately 16% of total imports in recent years, according to the USTR. It leads the market in smartphones, computers, and toys—likely to face sharp price increases when the new tariffs come into effect. Coupled with the tariffs implemented by the Biden administration, which expanded upon Trump’s first-term duties, China is now confronted with an average tariff rate of 125%.
Beijing can also impose other forms of sanction on the US, including halting export licenses for essential rare earth minerals critical to the US tech sector—one reason why Trump was so focused on identifying alternative supply sources in locations like Ukraine and Greenland.
Following the severe inflationary fallout experienced in the US due to supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, Chinese leaders might choose to impose new constraints on exports to the US. Furthermore, American laws and businesses could be restricted from operating in China. Beijing could also strike at the US agricultural sector by limiting the import of soybeans and sorghum. While these steps would inflict pain on both Chinese and American interests, they would illustrate Xi’s capacity to retaliate.
Small businesses remain highly susceptible. While large corporations like Apple can explore alternative manufacturing locations—such as India—US firms that depend on products and components from China will find themselves considerably exposed.
“If you are a small business, especially those involved in imports or reliant on foreign materials, you will face challenges,” stated Alex Jacquez, a former special advisor on Economic Development and Industrial Strategy to President Joe Biden. He added that broader economic repercussions would ensue. “Expect a drag on GDP that will impact the labor market, and anticipate inflationary pressures,” Jacquez warned.
“One of the concerns here is that there is a lack of rational thought or direction in the strategy.”
