Recent discussions coincide with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy responding to Trump’s remarks from Tuesday, where Trump attributed the onset of the conflict with Russia to Ukraine. Zelenskyy accused Trump of being ensnared in a “disinformation bubble” and emphasized that Ukraine is not for sale.
Trump’s swift shift in U.S. policy towards Russia has potentially improved ties with Moscow, which has been diplomatically and financially isolated since President Putin initiated the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, this pivot has also led to a noticeable distancing from Kyiv, raising concerns throughout Europe.
“We find ourselves in a very serious situation where the longstanding assumptions have been dismantled — especially the belief that the U.S. will guarantee Europe’s security,” commented Lough, a former NATO representative based in Moscow.
This significant change in Washington’s approach comes at a unique juncture for the European Union, a disparate and sprawling 27-nation bloc representing over 500 million individuals, grappling with a lack of strong leadership.
With German Chancellor Olof Scholz’s party facing poor election prospects on Sunday and following Macron’s party losing its parliamentary majority last summer, traditional power centers in the E.U. appear weakened.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who achieved a decisive victory in last year’s election and leads one of Europe’s largest economies, can only offer insight from the outside due to the U.K.’s exit from the bloc in 2020.
Now, as Europe finds itself devoid of strong leadership and weary from Ukraine’s prolonged conflict, “the Europeans have been notably slow to acknowledge” America’s shift, remarked Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow focused on European security at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
According to Arnold, the realization among Europeans that “they can’t fully depend on the U.S. has been evident for a while, but they’re now beginning to panic as the implications could be more dire than previously assumed.”
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Whether this realization has begun to take root remains uncertain.
After consultations on Tuesday with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who held discussions in Saudi Arabia with Russian officials, E.U. foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas remarked on X that “Russia will endeavor to create divisions among us. We must not fall into their traps.”
“By collaborating with the U.S., we can secure a just and lasting peace — based on Ukraine’s conditions,” she added.
However, thus far, European leaders have struggled to provide a clear and unified response to the swift developments in diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. The discord stemming from Trump’s perspective on the war is revealing divisions and disunity within Europe, Arnold noted.
“I believe that’s precisely what Trump is attempting to do in Europe. He’s trying to work around the organization,” he stated, adding that Trump seeks to “pit them against each other to achieve his own goals.”
A significant focus of urgent discussions has been what potential security guarantees for Ukraine might entail, with French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders insisting that any settlement to conclude the war in Ukraine must include “robust and credible security guarantees for the Ukrainians.”
