In recent times, President Donald Trump has portrayed himself as akin to an American monarch or a formidable president in need of a third term to rescue the nation. Distinguishing between his flights of fantasy and genuine intentions can be challenging. However, should he genuinely seek a third term, he would encounter nearly insurmountable barriers to continuing in the Oval Office past January 20, 2029, despite his vivid imagination and political acumen.
Trump has hinted at the prospect of a third term on several occasions, notably right after the November election when he told House Republicans, “I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’”
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”
– The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution
On February 21, during a White House event for Black History Month, he deviated from his speech, asking the crowd, “Should I run again? You tell me.” According to Politico, the audience, which included elected officials such as Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Rep. John James of Michigan, as well as notable figures like golfer Tiger Woods, responded with shouts of: ‘Four more years!’
Trump is not the only one suggesting the possibility of a third-term campaign. At the recent Conservative Political Action Conference, participants donned stickers promoting a “Trump Third Term Project.” Former White House advisor Steve Bannon declared, “The future of America is MAGA, and the future of MAGA is Donald J. Trump. We want Trump in 2028.”
As the audience cheered, Bannon added, “A man like Trump only comes along once or twice in a country’s history, right? We want Trump.”
Indeed, Trump is a distinctive figure in American history, boasting a dedicated following that most politicians envy. Furthermore, promoting the idea of a third term ensures he remains in the news and, as he acknowledged in his remarks, is likely to create “controversy.” This tactic also helps counteract the perception of him as a “lame-duck president,” which could diminish his influence as his second term progresses.
However, the straightforward language of the Constitution obstructs Trump’s bid for a third term. The 22nd Amendment states, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
If Trump and his supporters choose to pursue another run, they may attempt to reinterpret the amendment’s meaning. In September 2020, while campaigning for a second term, Trump mused about circumventing the 22nd Amendment’s clear wording: “After [getting re-elected], we’ll negotiate, right? Because we’re probably — based on the way we were treated — we are probably entitled to another four after that.”
Examining history can provide perspective as we consider MAGA’s assertions.
Supporters may argue, as one contributor to The American Conservative pointed out, that “those who supported the amendment more than 70 years ago could not have anticipated a one-term president who lost the office only to regain it later.” They would likely depend on a sympathetic Supreme Court to interpret the amendment in a way that aligns with their view.
A historical perspective is helpful as we evaluate MAGA’s claims.
The Founders once thought about capping the presidency at a single seven-year term but eventually decided on a four-year term without restrictions. In 1875, as Ulysses S. Grant’s supporters hoped for a third run, the House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a resolution asserting that “the precedent established by Washington and other Presidents of the United States, in retiring from the Presidential office after their second term, has become by universal concurrence a part of our republican system of government.”
Nearly seventy years later, President Franklin D. Roosevelt broke this precedent by winning a third and a fourth term. Roosevelt’s administration brought the concept of term limits to prominence. Thomas Dewey, the Republican candidate in the 1944 election, labeled four terms or 16 years as “the most dangerous threat to our freedom ever proposed.” Three years later, Republicans and conservative Southern Democrats passed the 22nd Amendment, which was ratified in 1951.
The discussions surrounding the amendment clearly indicate that its purpose was to restrict presidential tenure, not just the number of times an individual can seek the presidency. Political scientist Alan P. Grimes explained that supporters intended “the twenty-second amendment would strengthen and safeguard democracy from what they perceived to be its greatest threat: the aggrandizement, consolidation, and even usurpation of political power by the executive branch. For them, the twenty-second amendment was a democratic check on any future, dangerously ambitious demagogue, not an undemocratic limitation on the popular will.”
On February 11, two judges from the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals supported this interpretation, stating clearly, “The Twenty-second Amendment … mandates that President Trump cannot be elected to another term after the current one.”
A third judge, Trump-appointed Judge Allison Eid, left some ambiguity when she described the issue of whether the 22nd Amendment applies to Trump as a “novel and complex constitutional question.” However, even Trump’s Attorney General Pam Bondi acknowledged during her confirmation hearing that the president could not serve a third term “unless they change the Constitution.”
At least one Republican has already initiated this process: Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee filed a bill last month aiming to amend the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment to allow the president to serve “for up to but no more than three terms.” Ogles likely understands that there is virtually no chance his proposal will achieve the required two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate or be ratified by three-quarters of the states. Moreover, because state laws dictate ballot eligibility, without such an amendment, Trump cannot be elected for a third term.
That said, it is not to imply that Trump won’t attempt it anyway. However, his route to power beyond his current term will unlikely proceed through the electoral process.
