During a meeting in Tokyo last weekend, Wang Yi, China’s foremost diplomat, expressed that China perceives “great potential” for trade and stability if Japan, South Korea, and China collaborate. He referred to their common “Oriental wisdom” by quoting a proverb that appeared to hint at the United States as an unreliable ally, stating, “Close neighbors are better than distant relatives.”
However, while discussions were ongoing, two Chinese Coast Guard vessels initiated an unusual foray into waters near the contentious islands in the East China Sea. Japan’s coast guard intercepted them and reported that the Chinese ships were armed and had been chasing a small Japanese fishing boat.
Japan indicated that the incursion, which lasted nearly four days, marked China’s longest intrusion into the waters surrounding the islands claimed by both nations. Japan’s foreign minister raised concerns with Mr. Wang on Saturday regarding the increase in such activities near the uninhabited islands, referred to as Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China.
China’s dual strategy of promoting friendship while deploying armed vessels highlights its approach towards coping with a Trump administration that is swiftly reorienting the United States’ role on the global stage.
According to Bonnie S. Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, China employs a “carrots and sticks” strategy with its neighbors to “reward policies in target countries that promote Chinese interests and deter those that could harm China.”
On one hand, as Mr. Trump isolates U.S. allies through tariffs and queries about the fairness of defense treaties, especially with Japan, China views this as an opportunity to cultivate relations with those nations.
Conversely, China appears to have recognized that Trump’s aggressive foreign policy provides it with leverage to promote its interests while many U.S. allies feel vulnerable and question America’s dependability.
“China perceives Trump’s distancing of U.S. allies as a chance, yet this doesn’t preclude Beijing from expressing discontent when its core interests are at risk,” asserted Ms. Glaser.
This seems relevant to Australia, which at times has experienced a turbulent relationship with China. Following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s inauguration in 2022, efforts were made to mend ties. In response, China lifted bans on various Australian exports, including wine, red meat, and lobster. Last month, defense officials from China and Australia conducted high-level discussions in Beijing for the first time in six years.
However, shortly after, a Chinese naval fleet began an unannounced circumnavigation of Australia, conducting live-fire exercises in the vicinity for the first time, leading to the rerouting of several civilian flights.
This military exercise raised alarms in Australia and sparked discussions about reevaluating its defense strategies. Some analysts suggested that the drills were likely a reaction to the frequent presence of the Australian Navy in the South China Sea, where China asserts its sovereignty. Others speculated that China was testing how the Trump administration would respond to such displays of military force near a key ally.
“Beijing might be assessing the limits of its actions,” commented Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, indicating that it hopes to establish new operational norms in the region. “One calculation could be that if the United States proves ineffective or immobilized, other players may be left with limited options.”
China has adopted a similar combination of hard and soft tactics with South Korea and Vietnam. Trade with Vietnam is thriving, and there are indications that China may soon lift an unofficial ban on K-pop from South Korea.
Nonetheless, last month, China conducted live-fire drills in the Gulf of Tonkin after Vietnam asserted territorial claims in those waters. Additionally, it sent its coast guard to South Korean waters last week after a Korean vessel attempted to investigate Chinese-constructed steel structures there, prompting South Korea to lodge an official complaint with Beijing.
Such assertive actions remind observers that despite evolving geopolitical dynamics, China remains committed to one of its fundamental goals: to assert dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, noted Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy think tank in Sydney.
“The seas surrounding Japan, the South China Sea, and Australia are all interconnected realms of Chinese interests,” he stated. “China intends to pursue these objectives regardless of fluctuations in U.S. relations, believing it can simultaneously manage goodwill and confrontation.”
Japan’s relationship with China illustrates these complexities.
Recently, the ties between the two countries have warmed. In January, representatives from China’s Communist Party engaged in talks with Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party for the first time in years. Both nations have eased visa restrictions for each other’s tourists, and China has toned down its objections to Japan’s plan to release treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.
Yet, tensions remain. This month, Japan announced it is contemplating the deployment of long-range missiles on its southwestern island of Kyushu. These missiles could target Chinese forces in the event of an attempted invasion of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.
Meanwhile, Japan asserts that China has been increasing its naval presence in the waters surrounding the Senkaku islands, which Japan controls, a move that Japanese analysts interpret as a systematic approach to escalate challenges to the existing order.
The latest incursion commenced before dawn on Friday, when two Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered the territorial waters near Minamikojima, apparently pursuing a smaller Japanese fishing boat. Japan’s coast guard intervened to prevent the Chinese ships from advancing.
Japanese vessels safeguarded the fishing boat while demanding that the Chinese retreat. The Chinese declined, resulting in a 92-hour standoff where both fleets patrolled side by side, each asserting sovereignty over the islands. At one point, two additional Chinese vessels briefly joined the encounter.
Ultimately, Japan’s coast guard reported that it successfully “forced the Chinese Coast Guard ships to withdraw” late on Monday evening, marking China’s longest prior incursion, lasting nearly 81 hours, in 2023.
A former Japanese Coast Guard commander, Atsushi Tohyama, remarked that this recent incursion is indicative of a strategy of attrition that has been in place since 2010 when a Chinese fishing trawler collided with a Japanese Coast Guard vessel near the Senkaku islands.
“They appear to have reacted to the fishing boat’s presence,” said Mr. Tohyama regarding the Chinese vessels involved in the latest confrontation. “Reports indicate that the fishing boat lingered in waters around the island longer than usual, prompting a Chinese reaction.”
“In disputes like this, even fishing activities can be interpreted as assertions of sovereignty,” Mr. Tohyama concluded.
Berry Wang contributed reporting from Hong Kong.
