WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump and his wealthy adviser Elon Musk are causing uproar within the federal government as they seek to make significant cuts to certain agencies under the guise of addressing the federal deficit.
“BALANCED BUDGET!!!” Trump announced on Truth Social this month. Musk chimed in on X, stating, “The balanced budget is going to happen.”
However, the situation is more complex. Budget specialists indicate that even if Trump manages to implement the spending cuts proposed by Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency—targeting agencies such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and government-wide diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives—his policies would likely lead to a considerable increase in the deficit if enacted.
Trump is advocating for a series of drastic tax reductions, which range from extending his 2017 tax law set to expire to eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits. According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, these cuts could contribute an additional $5 trillion to the 10-year deficit compared to projections if current federal law remains unchanged, with the potential to escalate to $11 trillion depending on the specifics of his unclear proposals.
“It’s rhetoric versus reality,” stated Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the CRFB, which advocates for reducing the deficit. “It’s always popular to claim, ‘I’m reducing the deficit.’ At the same time, it’s also popular to distribute a range of benefits, and this president is well-known for that. Therefore, their rhetoric does not align with reality.”
Goldwein pointed out that Trump’s administration isn’t the first to make such claims, but “the magnitude of the situation is entirely different” when compared with his predecessors. “They’re advocating for a balanced budget on one hand, while making the situation 25% to 50% worse on the other,” Goldwein explained.
Federal spending is controlled by Congress, and it remains uncertain how much of Trump’s agenda will gain traction in the Republican-controlled House and Senate. Last week, the House passed a budget proposing $4.5 trillion in tax cuts alongside a $4 trillion increase in the U.S. debt limit, aiming to offset parts of this with unspecified expenditure reductions. Legislators are considering potential savings from Medicaid, SNAP benefits, and clean energy funding outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Trump has prominently focused on cutting foreign aid, which has constituted between 0.7% and 1.4% of the annual U.S. budget in the 21st century, according to the Pew Research Center. Last year, foreign aid amounted to $71.9 billion—about 1.2% of the overall budget, even including emergency assistance to Ukraine.
Additionally, Trump has proposed eliminating the Department of Education, which represents approximately 3% of federal spending, as reported by the Treasury Department.
“USAID, DEI grants, and educational administration are more targets in the culture war than essential components of a legitimate deficit reduction plan,” remarked Jessica Riedl, a budget expert and senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. “Real deficit reduction necessitates tackling the 75% of spending allocated to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense, veterans, and interest on the debt. Yet Trump is excluding nearly all of these major deficit contributors from potential savings.”
Regarding Social Security and Medicare, Trump mentioned addressing “the theft and the poor management of entitlements” last year while promising to protect benefits.
However, neither the president nor Musk have provided evidence of fraud that would significantly reduce costs. An audit by the inspector general last year indicated that the error rate in Social Security benefits was just 0.84% from fiscal years 2015 to 2022, amounting to $71.8 billion in improper payments—“most of which were overpayments”—from a total of $8.6 trillion.
“To extend the tax cuts and simultaneously balance the budget during Trump’s term would necessitate eliminating 30% of the federal budget,” Riedl noted. “Incorporating Trump’s commitment to not cut Social Security and Medicare would require cutting half of all remaining spending to attain balance. Congress is unlikely to approve that.”
Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., defended the tax proposal, asserting, “That’s what the president was elected to do.” He stated that finding a way for Republicans to offset the cost of extending his 2017 tax cuts, which will expire at the end of this year, is still a work in progress.
“That’s what we’re currently working on,” Hern added. “When you’re spending at twice the rate of your revenue growth, that’s a significant issue.”
Some GOP members argue that renewing the expiring Trump tax cuts should not be viewed as additional deficit spending. However, Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, cautioned: “We need to be cautious with such matters—it can lead to gimmicky results.”
Adding to the complexity, Republican leaders are contemplating a significant boost to the military budget, proposing a $100 billion increase in the House and a $150 billion increase in the Senate for the Pentagon. Additionally, they are considering allocating around $150 billion or more for enhanced border security and immigration enforcement.
Democrats criticize Trump, who referred to himself as the “king of debt” during his initial campaign, claiming he is misleading voters with tax cuts disproportionately favoring the wealthy.
“Even if Donald Trump and his co-President Musk completely eliminated all foreign aid and education funding, they still wouldn’t come anywhere close to balancing the budget. Adding the Trump tax cuts for billionaires will further inflate our debt,” stated Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pa., the leading Democrat on the House Budget Committee. “The funds allocated for foreign aid serve as a distraction from the significant tax cuts benefiting his billionaire allies.”
As Senate Republicans moved forward with their budget resolution on Tuesday night, one member, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., voted against it, expressing concern that its “unstated purpose is to increase spending by $342 billion.”
