President Donald Trump is currently the second most favored candidate to win the 2028 presidential election, despite being constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, according to a prominent bookmaker.
William Hill has assigned Trump 5/1 odds (16.7 percent) for the 2028 presidential election, placing him just behind Vice President JD Vance. However, a political scientist shared with Newsweek that the idea of a constitutional amendment enabling the incumbent to run again is simply “pure MAGA fantasy.”
Newsweek reached out to the White House press office for a comment on Saturday via email outside of normal working hours.
Significance
In November, Trump won a second term in the White House by decisively defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris, garnering 312 electoral votes compared to the Democrat’s 226 and winning the popular vote for the first time.
Since his victory—making him the second U.S. president to be elected for nonconsecutive terms—many of his supporters, including his former chief strategist Steve Bannon, have suggested that he should consider running again in 2028. Trump has also made humorously vague references to the possibility of a third term.
Key Information
As of March 21, in odds communicated to Newsweek, William Hill placed Trump’s chances of winning the 2028 presidential election at 5/1, with Vance leading at 5/2 (28.6 percent).
Following the president and vice president are Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., with odds of 9/1 (10 percent), while Democratic governors Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gavin Newsom of California rounded out the top five with odds of 9/1 and 10/1 (9.1 percent), respectively.
Trump is unable to serve a third term as president due to the 22nd Amendment, which since 1951 has imposed a two-term limit on anyone elected to the presidency.
The 22nd Amendment states, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
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Congress can propose an amendment to the Constitution with a two-thirds majority vote in both chambers. Additionally, two-thirds of state legislatures can call for an amendment, initiating a constitutional convention. To become law, the proposed amendment must then receive approval from three-quarters of all U.S. states.
Currently, Republicans do not hold a two-thirds majority in either legislative chamber nor control two-thirds of state legislatures, making it impossible to clear even the initial hurdle without bipartisan support.
William Hill has provided odds of 5/2 on the possibility of Trump repealing the 22nd Amendment and attempting to run for a third term before 2029.
During a speech at the New York Young Republican Club’s annual gala in December, Bannon claimed that Trump could seek a third term, arguing that the 22nd Amendment only applies to consecutive terms, though this view is not broadly recognized.
Public Reactions
A William Hill spokesperson told Newsweek: “It’s certainly not going to be easy for Donald Trump if he tries to repeal the 22nd Amendment to run for a third term as president (5/2 to do that before 2029), but given his strong backing in both the House and Senate, he may feel compelled to pursue it.
“Trump ally Steve Bannon predicted this week that the POTUS would attempt to run for a third term and emerge victorious, indicating a sense of possibility, and we’re not taking any chances by placing him at 5/1 in our next president market, just behind favorite JD Vance.”
Thomas Gift, who leads the Center on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek: “Trump may view himself as a king, and many of his closest allies, including Steve Bannon, might be advocating for a 2028 bid.
“However, this is likely a strategy to consolidate his political capital, showcase his current influence, and maintain control over the GOP for as long as possible. A constitutional amendment to eliminate the two-term limit is nothing more than a MAGA fantasy—requiring massive support from both Congress and state levels that simply isn’t feasible.”
Dafydd Townley, an expert in American politics who teaches at the University of Portsmouth in the U.K., told Newsweek: “It would be somewhat ironic if Republicans managed to repeal the 22nd Amendment to enable Trump to serve a third term, given that Republicans instituted it to prevent Harry Truman from being elected for four terms, as his predecessor Franklin Delano Roosevelt had been.
“The repeal would be a lengthy process in terms of its navigation through Congress and the necessary ratification by the states. [Thirty-eight] states’ approval would be needed to ratify the amendment, yet currently, only 23 are identified as being under Republican control.
“If the 22nd Amendment were to be repealed, it could not only pave the way for a third Trump administration but also a third Obama administration. Republicans should tread carefully with their aspirations.”
Future Considerations
For a viable chance of overturning the 22nd Amendment, Republicans would need to achieve considerable gains in the 2026 midterm elections or persuade a significant number of Democrats to support the change to the Constitution.
