Following the Kremlin’s release of its summary regarding President Vladimir V. Putin’s Tuesday call with President Trump, it became evident that the Russian leader remains firmly committed to his aggressive objectives in Ukraine, conceding very little to date.
During the call, Mr. Putin’s agreements — which included a limited 30-day suspension of energy infrastructure strikes from both sides, a prisoner swap, and discussions on security in the Black Sea — were portrayed as concessions to Mr. Trump in the summaries shared by Moscow and Washington.
However, these were objectives that the Kremlin had previously pursued, viewing them as advantageous. There was already a tacit understanding between Russia and Ukraine to avoid energy infrastructure strikes, which have negatively affected both nations. Russia has a history of conducting prisoner exchanges with Ukraine, as the repatriation of its soldiers is considered a key interest. Additionally, uninterrupted trade in the Black Sea is vital for Russia’s economy.
Mr. Putin’s requirements concerning Ukraine remained unchanged. During the conversation, he reiterated his demands for a comprehensive 30-day cease-fire, which he is aware are non-negotiable for Ukraine. The Kremlin reported that he accused Ukraine of sabotaging previous agreements and referred to it as committing “barbaric terrorist crimes” in the Kursk region of Russia.
According to the Kremlin, Mr. Putin also identified his “key condition” for a broader resolution to the conflict: a complete end to external military and intelligence assistance for Kyiv. Analysts believe that such a scenario would effectively make Ukraine, considerably smaller than Russia, permanently vulnerable to Moscow’s military dominance and isolated from potential counterbalancing supporters.
The Kremlin may be banking on Washington’s growing impatience during negotiations, hoping that the U.S. might abandon Ukraine entirely, allowing Mr. Putin to persist with his military actions while also re-establishing separate relations with the United States. Moscow might also rely on the possibility that Kyiv, facing a deteriorating situation on the battlefield and the potential loss of its primary ally, would ultimately consent to compromising its sovereignty in a manner beneficial to the Kremlin.
“The optimal outcome for Putin is to achieve his objectives in Ukraine while normalizing relations with the U.S.,” noted Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former U.S. intelligence official now analyzing for the Center for a New American Security. “Putin likely intends to keep Trump engaged, offering minimal concessions to see if he can achieve that aim.”
Ms. Kendall-Taylor further pointed out that Mr. Putin feels he has little to lose, considering that Mr. Trump has openly expressed skepticism towards Ukraine and Washington’s European allies, and may be reluctant to apply significant pressure on Russia or recommit to supporting Europe.
“There are numerous incentives for the Russians to engage, to comply, and to maximize every opportunity for their advantage,” Ms. Kendall-Taylor remarked.
Mr. Putin possesses notable advantages on the battlefield as his forces regain territory. Ukraine’s most vital supporter, the United States, is openly eager to distance itself from Kyiv, leaving Europe unsettled and scrambling to figure out how to secure its defense, much less that of Ukraine.
“In Russian diplomatic practice, negotiations are often just a means to buy time and destabilize the adversary,” stated Andras Racz, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Mr. Racz emphasized that Washington’s declared desire for a swift resolution to the conflict grants Moscow an advantage, as it is “not in a hurry.”
Post-Soviet Union dissolution, Washington’s influence in Europe significantly increased, with many former Soviet-aligned nations joining NATO and the West. Mr. Putin has continually rejected this development, seeking more extensive discussions on European security with the Trump administration. His apparent hope is that Washington will agree to arrangements that place Ukraine back under Russia’s influence while conceding broader restrictions on U.S. presence in the region.
While providing minimal concessions regarding Ukraine, Russia has begun enticing Washington with the possibility of improved relations. Russian officials have been highlighting their rich reserves of rare earth metals, expressing willingness to collaborate with American companies, alongside potential investment opportunities for U.S. investors in the energy sector.
During their Tuesday conversation, Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump discussed what the Kremlin referred to as “a wide range of opportunities for collaboration,” specifically mentioning energy sector cooperation. According to the Kremlin, Mr. Trump even agreed to participate in hockey matches featuring U.S. and Russian professional players.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, noted that the Kremlin is likely hoping to restore ties with the U.S. without linking renewed relations to the cessation of conflict in Ukraine. This is why he said the Kremlin is introducing discussions centered on the potential benefits for the U.S. stemming from a renewed relationship with Russia.
“They seem to have a remarkably astute understanding of Trump,” Mr. Gabuev said regarding the Kremlin’s approach. “They know how to identify and appeal to his vulnerabilities. It appears that the Russian team is currently ahead in this situation.”
