European leaders are urgently seeking ways to address a possible gap in leadership and security in Ukraine and across the continent, especially with President Trump’s administration considering a reduction in American support and military presence in Europe.
As the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine approaches amid the threat of a resilient Russia, high-ranking officials from Europe will be visiting Kyiv on Monday to express solidarity.
Concurrently, foreign ministers from various European nations will gather in Brussels, where they will deliberate on the next aid package for Kyiv.
Initial projections for this aid package began with modest figures but could exceed 20 billion euros, based on information from two sources privy to the talks, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions. The ministers are also expected to sanction a new set of measures against Russia, potentially complicating relations with the White House as Mr. Trump aligns more closely with President Vladimir V. Putin.
More broadly, European leaders are exploring the idea of deploying troops in Ukraine for peacekeeping or reassurance purposes, according to officials. They are also discussing increasing military budgets overall, with the European Commission expected to unveil a defense strategy in mid-March.
In light of the growing uncertainty regarding American commitments to Europe, António Costa, the president of the European Council, announced that a special meeting of European leaders will take place on March 6 to address both Ukraine and European defense matters.
This surge of activity occurs during a tumultuous period for Europe. Until now, the United States has been a key ally in supporting Ukraine’s efforts against Russia, providing diplomatic, financial, and military backing and uniting allies as it has done since World War II.
However, Mr. Trump is seemingly reshaping this dynamic, or at least raising concerns about it.
Last week, he surprised European leaders by suggesting Ukraine’s leadership shares the blame for the invasion, labeling President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator without elections.” He asserted that the implications of the war resonate more deeply with Europe than with America, which he described as being separated by a “big, beautiful ocean.”
It remains uncertain whether America will significantly cut military expenditures in Europe. Nonetheless, European leaders are increasingly anxious that the U.S. could withdraw thousands of troops, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently intimated. This potential withdrawal could leave Europe, particularly smaller NATO allies, exposed to an assertive Russia.
Following Russia’s invasion, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. had bolstered American troop presence in Europe by 20,000, and European officials express concern that this contingent could be the first to be reduced.
The broader implication for Europe is that its defense landscape might necessitate more independence — while also becoming increasingly complex.
“Financially and militarily, Europe has contributed more than anyone else. And we are prepared to enhance our efforts,” stated Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, in a statement last week on X after a meeting with U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg regarding Ukraine.
“This is a pivotal moment,” she remarked.
In recent years, Europeans have been significantly increasing defense expenditures, especially post-Russian invasion. However, they are still far from achieving the military capacity necessary to operate autonomously without U.S. assistance.
The United States has allocated roughly $119 billion for the war in Ukraine, including $67 billion in military aid, as per a commonly cited tracker. In comparison, Europe has contributed $65 billion in military assistance — slightly less — but has outspent the U.S. by $21 billion on humanitarian and financial aid.
Currently, European leaders are striving to ensure the U.S. remains engaged on both Ukraine and other critical military issues. They have underscored their readiness to heed Mr. Trump’s call for Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own defense.
“We have stopped complaining and started taking action, getting organized,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte declared in a recent speech. He acknowledged what he views as an important initiative from President Trump to push for a lasting peace in Ukraine.
Should the U.S. dramatically scale back its support, the repercussions would be severe and challenging to counteract, both in terms of military personnel and advanced military technology. Even if Europe were to procure such equipment now, delivery could take up to a decade.
A recent analysis by the Bruegel think tank suggested that Europe would require an additional 300,000 troops, military spending at around 3.5 percent of economic output, and rapid stockpiling of munitions to function independently from the U.S.
“Achieving credible European deterrence — for example, to prevent a swift Russian assault in the Baltics — would necessitate a minimum of 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces,” the analysis noted. “This is a volume of combat power greater than what currently exists in the land forces of France, Germany, Italy, and the UK combined.”
Mr. Rutte and others have highlighted that proceeding without American support is not feasible in the immediate future due to the essential nature of modern defense capabilities.
However, some European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, are advocating for a more robust approach to European self-defense within the NATO framework. Meanwhile, leaders like Friedrich Merz, likely to be Germany’s next chancellor following the recent election, are questioning the long-term credibility of the NATO alliance itself.
Mr. Macron is scheduled to visit Washington on Monday, where he aims to encourage Mr. Trump not to show weakness in negotiations with Mr. Putin. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will also make a visit to the White House later this week.
Previously, Mr. Macron suggested the possibility of deploying European troops to Ukraine following a resolution to the conflict, and Mr. Starmer has agreed to consider a similar option. However, Mr. Starmer indicated that such an arrangement would only be viable if the United States acted as a “backstop.”
Mr. Trump has stated that there will be no American troops on the ground in Ukraine, but he hasn’t entirely ruled out the possibility of American air support. This “backstop” would involve the U.S. committing to providing military assistance to European forces if they came under attack from Russia or another adversary, yet there are few signs that Mr. Trump supports this concept.
Additionally, Mr. Putin has made it clear that he will resist any deployment of European troops in Ukraine as part of any peace settlement.
For now, Europe’s central focus is to ensure it has a presence at the negotiation table as peace discussions unfold.
“This is the way we envision the negotiation table: Ukraine as part of Europe, with Europe, the United States, and Russia,” Mr. Zelensky stated during a forum on Sunday.
In the wake of the Munich Security Conference, where U.S. antagonism toward Europe was articulated by Vice President JD Vance, Mr. Macron has organized meetings for European leaders at the Élysée Palace to strategize about Ukraine’s future and European security.
However, as Europe considers a future with a potentially indifferent American ally, a significant question arises: How will it finance increased military expenditure?
Enhancing Europe’s military capabilities will require substantial investment — possibly necessitating joint funding initiatives. EU leaders are exploring various options, including issuing collective debt or granting countries greater flexibility regarding deficits to accommodate military spending.
European fiscal regulations seek to limit budget deficits to under 3 percent of each economy’s size, risking financial penalties for non-compliance. However, officials could activate an “escape clause” allowing for tailored exceptions for military spending, similar to provisions made during the Covid-19 pandemic response.
“I will recommend activating the escape clause for defense investments,” Ms. von der Leyen announced in a recent speech. “This will enable member nations to significantly increase their defense expenditures.” A consensus among European leaders will be necessary for this to occur.
Such matters are expected to feature prominently in the upcoming March 6 European Council meeting, as well as in the European Union’s eagerly awaited March “white paper” on defense, which is set to propose recommendations for necessary investments, particularly within European military industries. These issues are likely to dominate discussions among European leaders in the approaching days and weeks.
In announcing the special summit, Mr. Costa remarked on Sunday evening: “We are facing a decisive moment for Ukraine and the security of Europe.”
