Travel between Canada and the US by air is experiencing a significant downturn, with recent data indicating a decline of over 70% in flight bookings due to Donald Trump’s tariff war.
A report from the aviation analytics firm OAG reveals that airline capacity between the two nations has been slashed through October 2025, particularly during the July to August peak travel season. Current passenger bookings for Canada to US routes are down more than 70% compared to last year during the same timeframe.
OAG analyzed bookings from March 2024 to March 2025, focusing on trans-border flights in the six-month window from April to September. Their findings show that ticket purchases have decreased significantly, ranging from 71% to 76%.
The total available capacity for passengers on flights between Canada and the US has similarly decreased, likely in response to lower demand. Airlines have removed over 320,000 seats through October, with the largest reductions, at 3.5%, occurring during the busy summer months.
However, this steep decline in capacity suggests that the reductions implemented by airlines do not adequately address the current lack of interest in traveling to the US.
The significant drop in bookings indicates that Canadian travelers are hesitating to make flight reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty stemming from the tariff conflict. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has described the latest tariffs imposed by Trump as a “direct attack” on Canadian workers.
While a decrease in travel between Canada and the US was anticipated, the dramatic 70% decline in bookings may necessitate substantial adjustments for airlines, particularly for Air Canada, which operates the largest network of border-crossing flights between the two countries.
In addition to the trade issues, many Canadians express growing unease about crossing into the US, especially following several high-profile cases of foreign visitors being detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
