The actions of President Donald Trump in Washington are echoing through the milking barns of an upstate New York dairy farm. AJ Wormuth has reported rising costs due to Trump’s tariffs, while the looming threat of a broader trade conflict is dragging down the price he receives for the milk produced by his cows.
“We’re facing a double impact — with prices dropping and costs rising,” said Wormuth, who manages 3,600 dairy cattle at Half Full Dairy.
Although none of Trump’s policies have singled out the milk sector, dairy farmers claim they have been inadvertently affected on several levels. Their experiences reflect the rapid changes occurring in the federal government as Trump begins his second term, highlighting the intersection of two key policy areas—immigration and the economy—where voter feedback on Trump appears to be mixed thus far.
Tariffs are escalating costs for farmers, while market anxiety surrounding declining U.S. dairy exports is pushing milk prices down. At the same time, Trump’s intensified deportation policies could threaten the workforce of the dairy industry, as immigrants are estimated to comprise about half of dairy farm laborers. Moreover, there are increasing concerns about the spread of bird flu among dairy cattle, which has escalated over the past year.
“There’s so much uncertainty surrounding everything right now,” remarked Annie Watson, who operates an organic dairy farm in Maine with 70 cattle. “As dairy farmers, we work on three-year cycles—from when a calf is born until it becomes a milking cow. Changes don’t occur rapidly on our farms. Therefore, policies that take effect quickly can pose significant challenges for those of us who utilize this sort of timeline.”
Trade War Tensions
Trump has announced plans to impose comprehensive tariffs on goods from around the world, with additional 20% tariffs on imports from China already in place, along with a 25% tariff on imports of automobiles, steel, and aluminum. He has threatened, though so far postponed, a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada.
In reaction to Trump’s tariff initiatives, other nations have pledged to implement their own tariffs on American products. Notably, China and the European Union have initiated tariffs targeting specific U.S. goods, including dairy items.
These retaliatory tariffs could diminish global demand for American dairy, potentially leading to an oversupply of milk domestically. This scenario would create a supply-demand imbalance, resulting in lower prices for farmers, although consumer prices for dairy products may remain relatively stable. This stability is due to various factors impacting the final prices of dairy products, such as transportation, marketing, and labor costs.
“Any disruption in trade flow is definitely concerning,” stated Jaime Castaneda, the executive vice president for policy and strategy at the National Milk Producers Federation. “The farming community is particularly apprehensive about broad, sweeping tariffs as opposed to more targeted and focused approaches.”
Concerns around the tariffs have already led to a noticeable decline in the prices farmers are receiving for their milk since Trump took office, according to Castaneda.
However, there could be potential benefits for dairy farmers if Trump’s trade conflict can successfully eliminate trade barriers with countries like Canada and European Union members that currently restrict imports of American dairy products, Castaneda added.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned last week that her department is exploring ways to “potentially mitigate any economic disasters that could arise for some of our farmers” due to Trump’s tariffs. During Trump’s first term, the federal government provided direct payments to farmers who suffered from a loss of sales due to retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on U.S. agricultural products.
Rising Costs, Funding Cuts
In Maine, Watson expressed concern about the increasing cost of feed if Trump moves forward with his proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian imports. Due to her farm’s proximity to the Canadian border, a significant portion of her feed is sourced from Canada, and these tariffs could add an additional $1,200 a month to her grain expenses.
“It would be easier to withstand if so many of our organic dairy farmers weren’t already struggling financially due to market conditions,” remarked Watson, who is also the president of the Maine Dairy Association. “Many farmers might just try to endure without accumulating much more debt, but so many of us are already behind on our bills.”
Wormuth is also apprehensive about rising costs. He commenced barn renovations earlier than planned after learning that the price for new metal stalls would increase from $85,000 to $106,000, triggered by Trump’s implementation of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.
“We can’t simply increase our prices in the market because our expenses are rising, which leaves us in a difficult position,” he explained.
At the same time, dairy farmers are facing the negative effects of funding cuts and freezes at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency has reduced funding for a program aimed at assisting schools and food banks in purchasing goods from local farmers, including milk from nearby dairy farms. Other farmers are left waiting for reimbursement for millions of dollars in grants previously awarded for conservation projects on their farms, such as the installation of solar panels on barn roofs.
Immigration Fears
Dairy farms heavily depend on immigrant labor, with these workers contributing to the production of 79% of America’s milk, according to the National Milk Producers Federation. Working on dairy farms requires early starts, long hours, and weekend shifts throughout the year in challenging weather conditions.
“It’s a labor-intensive and hands-on job. It’s not glamorous; it’s hard, valuable work, but it’s something that society has started to undervalue,” said Watson. “As a result, we depend on immigrant labor. They arrive ready to work and do an exceptional job on our farms. The prospect of losing that workforce could be catastrophic for the dairy industry.”
For dairy workers not born in the U.S., obtaining the necessary work authorization can be complex due to the lack of a specific visa for dairy workers, unlike other agricultural sectors where employers can bring in workers on temporary visas during harvest seasons.
Dairy workers do not qualify for those temporary agricultural worker visas because they are engaged year-round. Over the past twenty years, Congress members and the dairy industry have made several attempts to establish a visa program for dairy workers but without success.
This leaves dairy farmers anxious that their workers could be affected by the Trump administration’s intensified deportation strategies. The National Milk Producers Federation estimates that if the U.S. dairy sector lost its foreign-born workforce, retail milk prices could nearly double, costing the overall U.S. economy over $32 billion.
One dairy farmer, who requested anonymity due to concerns about retaliation against his workforce, mentioned hearing a great deal of fear from his employees, who are trying to avoid public places and are preparing their families for the possibility of deportation.
“They see advertisements on television indicating that anyone who isn’t here legally should leave, which fosters a lot of anxiety and fear,” the farmer recounted. “Our workers are like family. They’ve been with us for a long time and are vital to us, but you can tell they’re frightened and uncertain about what the future holds.”
Bird Flu Spread
The concerns surrounding tariffs and immigration coincide with the industry’s vigilance regarding the ongoing spread of avian flu among dairy cattle over the past year.
Currently, the death rate among infected cows has been low, with most able to recover within a few weeks. However, these infections can lead to temporary reductions in milk production, impacting farmers’ earnings.
“We certainly do not need to contend with further production losses due to bird flu on top of all the volatility from tariffs and immigration issues,” expressed Wormuth, who fears that bird flu could begin to spread among New York dairy cattle when migratory birds return in the spring.
The Trump administration has yet to initiate significant changes to the federal response regarding avian flu in dairy cattle. The USDA, under the Biden administration, previously allocated funding to dairy farms aimed at curtailing the virus’s spread, covering veterinary expenses, and reimbursing farmers for milk losses resulting from infected cows.
The USDA began a voluntary milk-testing initiative in December, during the last days of the Biden administration, though some states have been slow to implement this system. Public and animal health experts emphasize that widespread testing is crucial to containing cases of the virus, which might otherwise go unnoticed, allowing for more opportunities for variants to spread among animals and humans.
The dairy sector is urging the Trump administration to keep developing a vaccine for avian flu in dairy cattle, according to Castaneda. However, he is apprehensive that some countries may be unwilling to accept milk from vaccinated cows, even though pasteurization has been proven effective in eliminating the virus—adding yet another layer of uncertainty for dairy farmers.
“I don’t believe that a vaccine should be mandatory, but having one available is certainly something we seek as an additional tool to handle this issue,” Castaneda noted. “This is our first encounter with this problem; we don’t know if it will reoccur or if it’s a one-time event.”
