How Trump Is Benefiting Liberals Internationally

By
Joe Killer
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The trade conflict initiated by President Trump is intensifying. Just yesterday, Canada and the European Union declared significant retaliatory tariffs on exports from the U.S., amounting to billions of dollars.

Countries have solid reasons to respond: resisting Trump is proving advantageous for leaders at home.

Trump’s approach — demanding tariffs, hinting at territorial acquisitions, and disparaging allies — has sparked outrage among voters in countries such as Britain, Mexico, and Ukraine. Take Canada, for instance; this week, the Liberal Party astonishingly reversed its declining fortunes against the Conservatives. Incoming prime minister Mark Carney revitalized his party by vowing to stand against Trump: “Canada will never be part of America in any way, shape, or form,” Carney declared in response to the president’s annexation threat. “Make no mistake. In trade as in hockey, Canada will prevail.”

Trump has inadvertently provided various foreign populations with a common adversary. As a result, they’re rallying behind leaders who challenge him. This phenomenon is referred to in political science as the “rally ’round the flag” effect, where public support for government leaders often surges during times of crisis.

I will elaborate below on how Trump’s confrontational tactics are unintentionally benefiting some of his adversaries.

Trump is disrupting America’s international relationships. However, the world leaders affected by this discord are performing well.

He applied global tariffs on metal imports and announced a 25% tax on goods from Mexico and Canada. Furthermore, he clashed with Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, right before the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, embraced Zelensky in London, signaling strong support for Ukraine.

In all these instances, leaders and political parties that confronted Trump have experienced boosts in their domestic approval ratings, as highlighted by my colleague Mark Landler.

Canada: The governing Liberal Party was on track for a significant electoral defeat. Yet, over the past few weeks, as Trump implemented tariffs, polling for the party surged by at least 10 points. In the race for prime minister, Carney is now either tied or leading in certain polls. The ongoing trade war may be instilling a sense of determination among Canadians.

Mexico: President Claudia Sheinbaum, representing the left, has seen her approval ratings climb to 80% while negotiating with Trump over tariffs. Last weekend, tens of thousands gathered in Mexico City to celebrate her successful efforts to postpone the tariffs.

Britain: Starmer has navigated cautiously in his dealings with Trump, refraining from retaliating against tariffs. However, he has vocally supported Zelensky following Trump’s withdrawal of backing for the war, resulting in a rise in his ratings. British voters now perceive Starmer’s Labour Party as more competent in addressing foreign policy and defense matters compared to the Conservatives, who are typically regarded as stronger in defense.

Ukraine: Zelensky’s clash with Trump may have salvaged his presidency. As the war progressed, political rivals attempted to unseat him. Following his visit to Washington, his approval ratings increased according to two recent polls, while his adversaries publicly acknowledged that now is not the appropriate time for elections.

Research indicates that people hesitate to abandon their leaders during a crisis. The rallying effect can shift the balance of power both within nations and among countries.

Several current conflicts fit this description, as noted by Matthew Baum, a public policy professor at Harvard: “Is national honor at stake? Absolutely. Is there a threat to national security? Without a doubt. Has a singular adversary emerged? Certainly.”

Conversely, weak leadership can produce drastic outcomes. Take Colombia, for example, where President Gustavo Petro clashed with Trump over deportation flights. His unexpected decision to return planes filled with deportees shocked even his closest advisers. In retaliation, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all Colombian goods, threatening to devastate the economy.

Petro capitulated, and his handling of the situation weakened his governing coalition. “It’s tough for him to project himself as a strong leader defending national honor,” Baum noted.

Perhaps Petro’s situation offers Trump a pathway to overcome his most resolute challengers. For instance, Trump could eventually raise the costs of resisting him too high for Carney in Canada. In Brazil, in reaction to the metal tariffs, the government indicated it would refrain from retaliation. “President Lula advised remaining calm during this period,” Brazil’s economy minister stated. “We’ve negotiated under harsher circumstances than this.”

Trump is intent on taking charge of the situation. Reports suggest that he believes forceful and occasionally erratic decisions afford him an edge in negotiations with other countries.

In many respects, this is accurate. Leaders in other nations cannot set the agenda; they find themselves compelled to respond. Consequently, the global landscape is currently operating under Trump’s conditions.

Opposing Trump requires a nuanced approach. Nevertheless, liberal leaders who execute this effectively are witnessing success. This might be fleeting; the rally effect can be short-lived. For example, while Covid initially boosted domestic support for numerous global leaders, their approval ratings dwindled afterward — often falling back to pre-pandemic levels.

In the interim, however, leaders who navigate this terrain skillfully can anticipate an upswing in support.

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