Editor’s Note: This analysis was first published in UJ’s Meanwhile in America newsletter. To access previous issues and subscribe, click here.
UJ
—
During the initial month of his second term, President Donald Trump embarked on an unprecedented undertaking — dismantling the international framework that the United States has painstakingly constructed over the last 80 years.
While it was always a theoretical possibility that the West could lose its prominence as memories of World War II and the Cold War faded, no one anticipated witnessing a US president actively using a metaphorical axe.
Following Trump’s election victory last year, some Western diplomats in Washington felt confident their governments could manage a president known for making foreign policy decisions via Twitter during his first term. However, the recent emergency meeting of European leaders in Paris indicates they miscalculated the potential destructiveness of Trump’s second term.
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth expressed to European leaders that they needed to “assume responsibility for conventional security on the continent,” thus raising immediate doubts about NATO’s foundational principle of mutual self-defense.
America’s shift away from its conventional foreign policy is driven by a combination of Trump’s specific priorities and broader geopolitical shifts. The United States, while still the world’s premier power, lacks the capacity to compel others — such as China — to adhere to its regulations. Indeed, it has a president who shows no intention of adhering to any economic, trade, or diplomatic norms and even threatens to annex Canada.
Additionally, the current administration is actively looking to destabilize allied democracies and promote a global surge of rightwing populism. Vance’s address cautioned that European governments pose a greater threat to their own security than China or Russia, citing their policies on free speech and immigration. He also met with the leader of the AfD, a far-right German party with neo-Nazi origins, aiming to bolster similar far-right movements in France and Britain. Trump appears more inclined to collaborate with like-minded allies in a Make Europe Great Again (MEGA) movement than with the centrist leaders currently in power.
Thus, what can Europe do now that the United States — the nation responsible for reconstructing the continent after World War II — seems to be transforming into an overtly antagonistic power?
French President Emmanuel Macron has long warned, based on his experiences during their earlier terms, that Europe must acknowledge America’s unreliability as a partner. With uncertainty regarding US military commitment to its allies, NATO members now face the pressing need to bolster their significantly diminished military budgets.
Such adjustments will be challenging since many European governments are already struggling with their budgets while under immense pressure to uphold their social welfare systems. Moreover, unifying all EU member states on a more independent course will prove perilous. Some nations in the former Soviet sphere — like Poland and the Baltic states — are acutely aware of the Russian threat, while others in Western Europe view the danger as more remote. Additionally, the EU now includes leaders who would be willing to assist Trump in undermining the Western alliance — like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
In just 31 days in office, Trump has fundamentally altered the global landscape.
Unless an unexpected development occurs, the major international focus will likely be on Ukraine.
We might gain further insights into the prospects for a peace agreement to conclude the war and its implementation during Macron’s visit to the White House on Monday, followed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s arrival on Thursday.
These visits will be crucial in determining whether there is potential for cooperation between the US and Europe concerning the war, especially after European leaders were excluded from US discussions in Saudi Arabia with Russia this week. Both Britain and France have expressed readiness to send troops to Ukraine to oversee any possible peace arrangements — but it’s difficult to envision such operations occurring without US support in airpower, intelligence, and logistics. Is Trump ready to take that step and provoke Moscow, which has already dismissed the possibility of foreign troops in Ukraine?
Watch also in the coming week to see if either leader arrives in the Oval Office with proposals to increase their defense budgets to impress their host.
Macron intends to use his visit to bolster Trump’s resolve following his recent acts of deference towards Putin, appealing to the US President’s strong sense of personal power. “I’ll tell Trump, ‘Deep down, you can’t show weakness in front of Putin; that’s not who you are, it’s not your brand,’” Macron stated on Thursday.
Although the UK is no longer part of the European Union, it has aligned closely with Macron and other bloc leaders this week. Starmer aims to restore the UK’s previous role as a mediator between its close ally, the United States, and Europe.
There’s just one complication. Trump has a tendency not to bridge gaps; he prefers to incinerate them.
