Judged by the clamor of Russian propaganda and the gloom felt by some Europeans, Vladimir Putin appears to be nearer to achieving his objectives in Ukraine than ever before. However, three years post-invasion, the definition of “winning” remains ambiguous. His ambitions are difficult to pin down. The planning for his “special military operation” was conducted in secrecy, leaving both his government and the Russian populace uninformed. While Mr. Putin speaks of safeguarding Russian sovereignty, the outcome hinges on various uncontrollable factors: the political landscape in Ukraine, Europe’s re-armament initiatives, and notably, Donald Trump. Formal negotiations with the Trump administration commenced on February 18th in Saudi Arabia.
