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historically wealthy but lightly defended nations have often discovered that proximity to a significantly stronger state – whether in geographical terms or diplomatic leverage – can lead to a precarious situation. An assertive new administration in the more dominant state can swiftly transform a relatively balanced relationship of economic and military partnership into one that feels exploitative or even menacing.
Since Donald Trump’s second inauguration, this awareness has been rising throughout the west, particularly in Canada. The country shares the longest international border in the world with the US, stretching 5,525 miles across vast stretches of sparsely populated and difficult-to-defend land, lakes, and rivers. The two largest Canadian cities, Toronto and Montreal, are mere hours away if approached in a US Army tank.
Earlier this month, I spent a week in this particularly sensitive region of Ontario and Quebec, visiting my daughter at university and encountering a newfound anxiety in Canada. As trains traversed the congested trans-Canadian rail corridor, individual American rooftops sparkled in the cold sunlight across the border. The sensation of being an outsider in a tense, contested area rekindled memories of my time living in West Germany near the East German border during the early 1980s, a period rife with Cold War tensions.
Until Trump began insisting on making Canada his nation’s “51st state,” such a comparison would have seemed ludicrous. But that’s no longer the case. “The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country,” stated the new Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, in his inaugural speech as Liberal leader. “If they succeed, they will obliterate our way of life.” A relationship once regarded as one of the most harmonious – and strategically significant – among affluent western nations appears to have undergone a radical shift.
The Canadians I spoke with in shops, at bus stops and train stations, at home, and through emails were generally less alarming about the situation than Carney, who needs to solidify his reputation as a leader and win the upcoming election next month. There was some frustration directed toward the US – and at Britain for not condemning Trump’s threats against a Commonwealth nation. “The king is proud to associate with a despot for … a potential trade agreement,” a Montreal professor remarked, referencing King Charles’s recent invitation to Trump for a second state visit to Britain. “A bold response from us in Canada would be to sever ties with the monarchy.”
More commonly, though, individuals I encountered merely shrugged or rolled their eyes at Trump’s antics. They described him as erratic, chaotic, and utterly inconsistent – a stark contrast to what they implied is the steadiness of Canadians. Many expressed satisfaction at the decline of the US stock market driven by tariffs. Yet, there was also a shared sentiment that Trump’s threats would necessitate significant changes in Canadian life. However, discussions about what those changes might entail were generally avoided – with the exception of a baker in Montreal, who sold me sourdough while we debated whether Canada might need to acquire nuclear weapons.
Historically, US-Canada relations have not always been peaceful. The US invaded Canada in 1775 and again in 1812, both times unsuccessfully. During the 1920s and 1930s, it devised a hypothetical invasion plan known as War Plan Red. Fundamentally, a fear of the US has shaped Canadian identity, spurring its unification from originally disparate territories and influencing the decision to establish its capital in Ottawa, situated further from the border than other eastern cities.
Similar to Britain, in the mid-20th century, Canada endeavored to forge what it termed a “special relationship” with the US. Canada’s export-driven economy – essential due to the nation’s relatively small and dispersed population – gained access to US markets. American companies could tap into Canada’s affluent consumer base, often located near America’s industrial heartlands. During the Cold War, both nations perceived Canada as a strategic partner for building defenses against potential Russian aggression.
With Trump appearing much more aligned with Moscow than Ottawa, the North American alliance may effectively be in jeopardy. By land area, Canada ranks as the world’s second-largest country after Russia, yet its military forces are modest, roughly half the size of those in Britain. This feeling of military abandonment by the US potentially explains the large “Fuck Trump” flag displayed on a pickup truck in Kingston, Ontario, usually known for its polite citizens and home to the Royal Military College of Canada.
Economic connections will inevitably take longer to dissolve. California carrots were still available on the shelves of Montreal supermarkets, and my trains were regularly overtaken by numerous freight wagons from the renowned American company Union Pacific. Nevertheless, Canadian visitation to the US has already sharply declined: last month, the numbers mirrored those seen in the later stages of the pandemic. In numerous respects, Canada may be a forerunner in developing new behaviors toward the US, which could eventually influence broader trends across what remains of the liberal west. For those sympathetic to leftist ideals, both American culture and places may lose much of their allure, as the US has evolved into a realm that feels increasingly authoritarian and unwelcoming toward outsiders, primarily due to the actions of such a prototypically American figure.
Canada is consciously carving out an alternative path. “Canada is a mosaic,” Carney asserts, while government and business entities promote pro-diversity messages, seemingly designed to provoke US conservatives. In addition to its vast and increasingly sought-after water and mineral resources, Canada – despite facing considerable inequalities and a significant per capita carbon footprint – offers a compellingly different way of living on the North American continent.
Will Trump or any hard-right successors in the White House permit this provocative stance to persist? Another US invasion may not be on the immediate horizon. Trump already juggles numerous ambitious policy objectives. Subduing and occupying as vast and physically challenging a nation as Canada would pose an intimidating challenge, even for a party driven by fantastical ambitions like the Republicans.
However, it is equally difficult to envisage a swift restoration of US-Canadian relations to their former state. Numerous disparities and contrasts between the two nations have been brought into sharp focus, and too many threats have been issued. Trust has been severely eroded. Political careers on both sides are being bolstered by adopting a tough stance toward the neighboring government.
Canadians may not be as well-known as Americans for displaying their flags, yet a notable number were seen flying proudly along the border this month. It could be many years before those flags come down.
