President Donald Trump’s approval ratings began higher than during his first term in 2017, yet they are still low compared to other presidents within the same timeframe.
Recent polls taken in the initial weeks of his second term indicate that a greater number of people approve of Trump’s job performance than those who disapprove. However, early data released on January 28 by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight showed that the gap between Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings was the second-lowest for any newly-elected president since World War II, aside from his first term.
This gap, known as the net approval rating, has decreased as more polls have been conducted, sliding from approximately 7 percentage points on January 27 to about 1.3 percentage points by February 20, based on FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages.
Polls from Trump’s first month in office coincide with numerous executive actions, legal disputes, and policy directives from his administration. The administration has enacted substantial layoffs of federal employees while aiming to modify federal entities and reduce government expenditures.
How does Trump’s approval rating compare to his first term and other newly inaugurated presidents?
Using FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average methodology retrospectively, Trump’s initial net approval rating in 2017 was +3.2 points on January 27. In contrast, just over a week into their presidencies, former President Joe Biden had a +21.8 rating while former President Barack Obama enjoyed a +46.9 approval rating, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Biden maintained a largely positive approval rating of at least 18 percentage points throughout his first month. However, by the time he left office earlier this year, FiveThirtyEight’s data indicated that a larger proportion of respondents disapproved of him by a 20-point margin.
Typically, presidents are viewed more favorably at the onset of their terms, with approval ratings often declining over the course of their administrations.
This potential decline in public perception may already be occurring for Trump, as several polls conducted in mid-February demonstrate a decrease in his net approval rating, as shown by FiveThirtyEight’s rolling average.
‘Benefit of the doubt’: Trump ratings are better off…for now, expert asserts
Despite Trump having served two non-consecutive terms, Costas Panagopoulos, head of political science at Northeastern University, believes it’s reasonable to compare his early approval ratings to those of other newly-inaugurated presidents.
“It appears that Americans are granting Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt as he embarks on his second term,” Panagopoulos noted, adding that many people do not expect immediate changes within his first month back in office.
Panagopoulos has identified some “red flags” in the approval polls, with some respondents expressing concerns about how Trump is addressing his campaign priorities such as inflation. Nonetheless, the president appears to be in a better position than at the beginning of his first term.
“It’s crucial to acknowledge that the nation remains divided and highly polarized, which reflects in the approval ratings,” Panagopoulos explained. “His election shifted rapidly, and the same could happen to his approval ratings.”
What recent presidential approval polls reveal
Washington Post/Ipsos:
- More respondents disapproved of Trump’s job by 8 percentage points. (Poll conducted Feb 13-18; 2,601 adults; margin of error ±2.1 percentage points)
- The majority (57%) of respondents believe Trump has exceeded his authority since taking office, according to the Post.
YouGov/TheEconomist:
- More respondents approved of Trump’s performance than disapproved by 3 percentage points (poll conducted Feb. 16-18; 1,451 registered voters; margin of error ±3.2 percentage points).
- Approximately half of Americans (51%) believe the U.S. is undergoing a constitutional crisis.
Morning Consult:
- More respondents approved of Trump’s work by a margin of 3 percentage points (poll conducted Feb. 14-16; 2,217 registered voters; margin of error ±2 percentage points).
- Following three rounds of consecutive weekly declines, these ratings stabilized and are on par with figures at the same point in his first term, according to Morning Consult.
Gallup:
- More respondents disapproved of Trump’s job overall by a 6-point margin (poll conducted Feb 3-16; 1,004 adult respondents; margin of error ±4 percentage points).
- His support is significantly partisan, with a gap of 89 percentage points between Democrats who approve of Trump and Republicans who do, marking the highest gap Gallup has recorded for any president.
Echelon Insights:
- A larger percentage of Americans approve of Trump’s job, at 52% compared to 46% (poll conducted Feb. 10-13; 1,010 likely voters; margin of error ±3.6 percentage points).
- The survey also indicated that voters disapprove of Elon Musk’s current position within the federal government by an 11-point margin.
Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter at USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected], and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.
