In a swift period of five weeks, China has conducted live-fire exercises near Australia, Taiwan, and Vietnam. It showcased new landing barges on vessels that could enable an amphibious assault on Taiwan. Additionally, it revealed deep-sea cable cutters capable of severing another nation’s internet connectivity – a capability that no other country publicly acknowledges having.
Experts suggest that China is demonstrating its naval prowess in the Indo-Pacific to project dominance to its regional counterparts. However, it is also probing the strategies of a more distant adversary: Donald Trump.
Since Trump assumed presidency in January, he and his administration have concentrated their strategy on tariffs, igniting an escalating trade war with Beijing while remaining largely mute on China’s increasing military posturing in the maritime zones of the Indo-Pacific.
However, this is beginning to shift.
On April 1, the US State Department denounced Beijing’s “provocative military maneuvers and rhetoric” regarding unannounced military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, which have expanded in scale recently and are increasingly reminiscent of an actual invasion. This statement followed a trip to the area by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who reassured both Japan and the Philippines of America’s continued support against China. He emphasized that the US had not altered its neutral stance on Taiwan, while the Pentagon reaffirmed that China remains the US’ greatest threat.
Nonetheless, US allies in the Indo-Pacific seek assurances directly from Trump, who has remained non-committal on Taiwan-related issues. When questioned by a journalist in February about his views, Trump declined to elaborate and has not made any further statements regarding Taiwan. His willingness to stray from his senior advisors, alongside his erratic approach to Ukraine negotiations and tariffs, raises doubts about his consistent, long-term strategy on international matters.
“The Chinese are observing the dynamics within the Trump administration and gauging how far they can push the envelope,” noted Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
As China tests Trump, the waters surrounding the country are expected to become increasingly turbulent, according to Davis, who stated that China will likely intensify its exercises in the Taiwan Strait and focus on nations engaged in territorial disputes, including the Philippines and Japan.
“China will be more inclined to inflict risk on the Philippines through aggressive actions such as ramming boats. The shift from non-lethal measures to more assertive tactics is likely,” Davis elaborated. “The aim is to intimidate Manila into accepting Chinese interests.”
Debates on the extent of US military involvement in the Indo-Pacific and the level of protection the US should provide Taiwan from China have divided Trump’s senior officials, as noted by a former State Department employee who served during the early days of Trump’s presidency.
“There are definitely competing factions reminiscent of a royal court, all vying for influence and the final say with Trump,” the former staffer commented. “A clear division exists over Taiwan policy between traditional national security advocates like (Marco) Rubio and (Mike) Waltz versus the America First supporters.”
However, Trump’s own position remains ambiguous.
Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute’s international security program, remarked that it was acknowledged that a segment of Trump’s administration aimed to pivot away from Europe, “but it is unclear whether he aligns with the notion of increasing engagement in Asia,” he pointed out.
What is evident from Trump’s stance in Ukraine discussions is his willingness to interlink trade deals with significant geopolitical issues. He has shown a tendency to shift his position on topics rapidly.
Beijing will be closely monitoring Trump’s potential shifts. If Vladimir Putin of Russia can reach a significant agreement with Trump by proposing economic incentives in exchange for Ukrainian territory, Beijing may seek a similar arrangement regarding Taiwan.
This situation is contributing to apprehension among the US’s closest allies in the Indo-Pacific, expressed Jenny Schuch-Page, a managing principal in energy and sustainability with the Washington-based Asia Group. “The mere possibility of a ‘grand bargain’ with China leaves nations in Southeast Asia concerned about their own fates,” she noted.
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, did not comment on whether Beijing was pursuing such a deal but stated that China “deplores” US criticisms of its exercises near Taiwan, labeling them as “mischaracterizations of the facts and an interference in China’s internal affairs.”
Trump is expected to prioritize maintaining competitiveness with China, which currently leads in sectors such as artificial intelligence, robotics, electric vehicles, and 6G technology.
The absence of a long-term strategy for dealing with China poses a challenge, according to Danny Russel, a former US diplomat and vice president of international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington.
He highlights recent mass layoffs within the country’s intelligence services, which included dismissals of specialized China researchers at the CIA, as a perilous step regarding security and the US’s negotiating position in trade discussions.
China may attempt to recruit these laid-off personnel for its intelligence operations against the US, as suggested by a Reuters report.
“We are blinding ourselves at a time when national security and economic interests demand clarity from us and our allies,” Russel cautioned.
The defunding of Radio Free Asia, which is affiliated with Voice of America, is another detrimental decision, according to Russel, who believes it undermines a critical source of information from China and other challenging regions like North Korea.
“This represents a form of unilateral disarmament in the information domain at a time when China, Russia, and North Korea are on the rise,” Russel remarked about these budget reductions. “Why are we voluntarily forfeiting our most powerful tools for competition? There is a significant difference between prudent budgeting and self-sabotage.”
This could pose a security risk for nations like Australia, which has a long-standing tradition of intelligence sharing with the US. Experts Davis and Roggeveen argue that China is likely to amplify its operations in international waters near Australia, making a steady flow of information regarding China essential.
A recent instance is a Chinese research vessel that navigated around Australia this month. The Tan Suo Yi Hao spent over two weeks in international waters close to Australia’s southern and western shores, near vital subsea communication cables that facilitate communication—including emails and military secrets—among Australians.
When questioned by journalists regarding his thoughts on the vessel’s presence, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese acknowledged, “I’d prefer it wasn’t there.”
Without a strong stance from Trump on the region, additional Chinese vessels may be expected to appear.
