The letter that US President Donald Trump claims to have sent to Iran’s leadership, proposing to reopen discussions regarding the nation’s nuclear program, arrives during a period of significant instability in Iranian domestic politics.
Recently, the conservative-controlled parliament has exerted its influence over the largely reformist president elected last June by impeaching and dismissing the experienced economy minister, Abdolnaser Hemmati. Additionally, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the vice-president and leading reformist figure, has also been ousted.
These maneuvers were evidently made against President Masoud Pezeshkian’s preferences. However, with the economy struggling under the weight of US economic sanctions, the 85-year-old supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has clearly opted not to support Pezeshkian.
Building on its momentum, the parliament is now calling in another group of 11 ministers to answer 49 questions about their performance, seemingly as a tactic to further subdue Pezeshkian’s administration.
Rumors are rampant that Pezeshkian, known for his emotional nature and commitment to integrity, may resign soon. His exit would signal that the deep state, or what some refer to as the shadow government, will not accept a diminishment of its power.
Should he leave, Pezeshkian has made it clear whom he would blame. In a notably frank address, he asserted his stance, stating he had advocated for negotiations with the West, but the supreme leader had turned them down, declaring, “it’s over and done.”
“My stance has always been in favor of negotiations, but now we must adhere to the directions set by the supreme leader,” Pezeshkian remarked. “When the supreme leader establishes a path, we must align ourselves with it. To adapt, we need to discover a solution.
“From the moment we assumed control of the government, we were met with challenges regarding energy, water, and power shortages, coupled with substantial debts owed to the agricultural sector for wheat, healthcare, and retirement benefits.”
He also mentioned that his attempts to relieve the pressures women face regarding the hijab have faced persistent opposition. On Saturday, he publicly apologized once more for the inadequacies in energy provisions.
Much of this maneuvering, while ostensibly centered on economic mismanagement and poverty, actually represents a larger struggle regarding ties with the West, as conservatives remain convinced that experience shows Trump and his ally, Israel, are not only untrustworthy but also intent on regime change in Iran.
During the election, Pezeshkian had maintained that Iran could halt its confrontation with the West and still preserve its independence.
If Trump’s letter establishes stringent conditions for negotiations concerning Iran’s nuclear program, conservatives will feel justified in stating that the price demanded by Washington is excessively high. However, if Tehran dismisses Trump’s overture, the likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities may increase.
The main barrier to such an attack might not be Iran’s numerous threats of retaliation—Israel believes it has incapacitated Tehran’s air defenses—but rather the concerns of the Gulf states. Qatar’s level-headed Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, issued a stark warning during an interview with Tucker Carlson, claiming that an assault on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant could result in radioactive materials contaminating the Gulf, jeopardizing drinking water supplies for all neighboring countries reliant on desalination. He emphasized that not only marine life but all forms of life in the region would be at risk.
To date, Iranian diplomats have maintained a firm stance by asserting they will not engage in direct negotiations with the US. This approach preserves the possibility of indirect discussions facilitated by Russia, representing a continuation of the exhaustive negotiations attempted in Vienna under the Biden administration that failed to reinstate the 2015 nuclear agreement. Such an offer might provide Iran with some breathing room.
The prevailing view in Iran is that Trump’s letter has been strategically timed as a psychological tactic designed to compel Tehran into a refusal, exacerbating internal divisions over its approach and elevating the crisis between Iran and the West to a critical, climactic stage.
