Probable cause to hold Trump admin in contempt, judge says
A federal district judge asserts there is probable cause to hold the Trump administration in criminal contempt due to deportations.
Trouble?
President Donald Trump is facing challenges.
It’s a stark moment when a federal judge’s warning, indicating “probable cause” to believe your administration has violated criminal laws, isn’t the worst news of the day.
Even more concerning were Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s unflinching remarks suggesting that the president’s tariffs are “highly likely” to increase inflation and could hinder economic growth, a scenario reminiscent of the “stagflation” of the Jimmy Carter era.
Voters typically prioritize the economy when evaluating presidents. President Joe Biden’s inability to swiftly and effectively tackle inflation was a major factor contributing to his defeat by Trump.
Now, just two weeks after Trump heralded his new sweeping tariffs as “Liberation Day,” critics argue he is now facing the consequences of his actions.
Trump has often defied expectations since declaring his candidacy in 2015, a bid most deemed improbable. He secured the presidency and has since been a pivotal figure in American politics.
No scandals, convictions, or political controversies have stopped his eventual successes.
However, this time, what’s under scrutiny isn’t solely his rhetoric or personal conduct, but the financial figures that many Americans are seeing on their 401(k) statements amid the stock market’s fluctuations.
In many cases, they’re hesitant to check their retirement investments’ current values.
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Trump’s economic approval is declining
His approval ratings have taken a dip.
Initially, in the Economist/YouGov survey, he began his second term with a positive rating of 49% approval against 43% disapproval. However, the latest poll shows a reversal to 43% approve and 51% disapprove, indicating a 14-point swing before reaching his 100th day.
Perception of his economic management has deteriorated even more sharply, now showing a 10-point negative difference at 51%-41%. Notably, among 2024 voters who previously supported him, approval ratings have slumped from 75% to 66% since late March.
On immigration, however, public opinion remains favorable toward Trump, sitting at 50%-40%. This reflects the sustained strength of an issue that has consistently galvanized his supporters.
This context may explain why, following a challenging day, the White House orchestrated a press briefing featuring an unexpected guest: Patty Morin, the mother of a Maryland woman murdered by an undocumented immigrant from El Salvador, whose trial concluded with a guilty verdict.
The murder of Rachel Morin was a rallying point during last year’s elections.
The wrongful deportation of another Salvadoran immigrant, Kilmar Abrego Garcia, has emerged as a new contentious issue in Trump’s presidency, one that his administration endorses.
Will angry town halls signal trouble?
Disregarding a judicial warning may present new political challenges.
Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg has signaled his consideration to initiate contempt proceedings against the Trump administration. He remarked that they have shown “willful disregard” for his order issued on March 15 that prohibited the deportation of Venezuelan alleged gang members under the Alien Enemies Act.
At a town hall in Fort Madison, Iowa, constituents expressed worries that Trump might ignore a Supreme Court ruling, prompting heated exchanges with Senator Chuck Grassley.
One attendee demanded, “Are you going to bring that guy back from El Salvador?” after pointing out that Trump had blatantly defied a Supreme Court ruling.
The six-term senator from this reliably Republican state received a torrent of criticism regarding the adverse impact of tariffs on agricultural exports and looming threats to Social Security.
A voter asked pointedly, “Are you proud of voting for Trump and what he’s doing in office?”
Grassley replied, “There’s no president I’ve agreed with 100% of the time.”
He is among the few Republicans conducting town hall meetings during the two-week congressional recess. The chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee has cautioned GOP members against engaging in these forums out of concern for potential voter backlash.
Since the emergence of the Tea Party in 2009, lively town halls have served as an early indicator of public sentiment and political energy.
The current challenges facing the president aren’t stemming from a natural disaster or an international crisis.
Instead, they originate from his aggressive pursuit of two main objectives: implementing tariffs that he has touted as a cure-all since his days as a real estate mogul in the 1980s, and employing every measure possible to reduce illegal immigration, even if it stretches his executive powers.
In light of the tariffs, Powell indicated at the Economic Club of Chicago that rising unemployment is anticipated as economic growth decelerates. He noted that part of the tariff costs would ultimately fall on consumers, though the specific magnitude of price increases remains uncertain. In response, Trump called for Powell’s “termination” and urged the Fed to lower interest rates through a post on Truth Social.
Powell cautioned that the Fed’s primary goals of stable growth and maximum employment could face conflicting pressures and that tough choices lie ahead for central bank officials.
The White House is likely bracing for the impacts as well.
