A closely monitored election for a state supreme court judgeship in Wisconsin provided Democrats with a notable victory Tuesday night, while two special elections in Florida awarded two seats to House Speaker Mike Johnson’s precariously slim GOP majority. Although off-year and special elections usually draw a smaller electorate compared to presidential elections, the results in both states offered valuable insights for Democrats and Republicans moving forward. Here are some key takeaways:
Wisconsin State Supreme Court Race
A Blow for Trump and Musk
In spite of substantial financial support from Elon Musk and affiliated groups — exceeding $20 million — alongside an endorsement from President Trump, conservative candidate Brad Schimel was defeated by a 10-point margin by liberal candidate Susan Crawford. Musk’s multi-million-dollar contributions failed to convince Wisconsin voters in this statewide judicial contest, marking a significant political loss in a battleground state that Trump narrowly flipped in 2024.
Crawford campaigned strongly against Musk’s influence in the state, and this victory could shape a tactical advantage for national Democrats as they gear up for the gubernatorial contests later this year and the 2026 midterms.
Record-Breaking Spending Exceeding $90 Million
This election is now recognized as the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, with total expenditures surpassing $90 million, with some estimates nearing $100 million. The unprecedented financial influx — powered by prominent donors on both sides, including Elon Musk, George Soros, and JB Pritzker — highlights the increasing nationalization and politicization of state judicial contests and raises concerns regarding the sway of external interests on local elections.
In the showdown among billionaire patrons, Musk emerged as a prominent loser; he donated $3 million to the state GOP and his affiliated groups spent over $20 million. According to Wisconsin Democrats, the efforts of the world’s wealthiest individual motivated Democratic voters to support Crawford.
Implications for Musk’s Future Political Spending
The results from this race will be crucial to observe regarding Musk’s future financial and political investments leading up to the 2026 midterms, especially following his setback in Wisconsin.
With Musk’s influence, Republicans secured the White House and Senate in the 2024 election and retained control of the House. However, the GOP will confront challenges in maintaining and expanding its slender House majority in the 2026 midterms. The significant interest in Tuesday’s race from voters and major Democratic donors indicates a forthcoming influx of investment from both sides, particularly as the president’s party risks experiencing substantial losses amid voter dissatisfaction.
High Voter Engagement
Voter turnout was notably high for a spring election and judicial contest, potentially exceeding 2.4 million voters, significantly surpassing the participation in the 2023 state supreme court race, according to estimates from CBS News. This turnout surge, along with Crawford’s strong performance in pivotal regions like Dane County, signifies robust mobilization among Democratic and left-leaning voters, driven by concerns over the policies of the new Trump administration and opposition to Musk’s involvement.
Moreover, this trend suggests a wider interest among the Wisconsin electorate regarding judicial independence on critical issues such as abortion rights and congressional redistricting.
Liberal Majority Retained on Wisconsin State Supreme Court
Crawford’s victory ensured that the Wisconsin Supreme Court retained its 4-3 liberal majority. This outcome sustains the ideological balance of the state’s highest court, which has been in place since 2023, leading to significant rulings favoring progressive agendas like invalidating Republican-drawn legislative maps and addressing voting rights.
A Boost for Democrats
Following the Wisconsin election results, national Democrats indicated that this win has energized the party as they navigate intra-party debates on its direction leading into the 2026 midterms. The race in the Badger State served as a referendum on Musk and Trump policies, with the election’s outcome acting as a warning for Republicans as they prepare for the 2025 gubernatorial races and the 2026 elections; to many, it was a litmus test for voter enthusiasm.
Trump Highlights Voter ID Victory
Despite Schimel’s defeat, President Trump took to social media to celebrate one conservative success: Wisconsin voters approved a measure to enshrine the state’s voter ID requirement in the constitution. This measure, which mandates presenting a photo ID at the polls, now carries the weight of a constitutional amendment.
Florida Special Congressional Elections
Narrower Republican Victories
Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine secured victories in the 1st and 6th Districts in Florida on Tuesday, thereby maintaining GOP control over these strongholds vacated by Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz. However, their victories were recorded with significantly reduced margins in comparison to the 2024 general election. Patronis defeated Gay Valimonti with a 57-42% margin, while Fine also won against Democrat Josh Weil by the same margin of 57-42%, a striking decline from Waltz’s 33-point lead in November.
Democrats Overperform in Fundraising
Democratic candidates significantly exceeded expectations in two staunchly Republican Florida districts on Tuesday, bolstered by remarkable fundraising achievements that outpaced those of their Republican counterparts. Weil raised over $9 million, while Valimont collected roughly $6 million — contributions that made the contests considerably more competitive than anticipated. Although Republicans retained both seats, the close margins highlight the GOP’s entrenched advantage within these Trump strongholds.
Nevertheless, the Democratic contenders achieved a symbolic victory by carrying Escambia County — traditionally a Republican bastion in presidential contests — marking a rare blue spot in the deep red district.
Trump’s Influence Tested but Confirmed
Both Patronis and Fine benefited from endorsements and campaign activities led by Mr. Trump, including tele-town halls and posts on Truth Social, which were pivotal in securing their wins. However, the narrower-than-expected outcomes, despite Trump’s active participation and his considerable victories in these districts — 68% in the 1st District and 65% in the 6th — raise concerns about potential vulnerabilities in his influence as he begins his second term, particularly when he is not on the ballot. The results bolstered the GOP’s slim House majority, now sitting at 220-213, though the tighter margins suggest that Trump’s influence may not be as absolute in off-cycle elections.
Special Elections in the House Remain Challenging for Opponents
Tuesday’s results in Florida align with analysis from CBS News’ political unit, indicating that since Trump’s initial election in 2017, less than 15% of seats have changed in House special elections.
