On Sunday, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada announced that a federal election is set for April 28, marking yet another significant date on the calendar during a period of considerable upheaval and uncertainty for the nation.
President Trump has imposed harsh tariffs on Canada and indicated that more are on the horizon, while also challenging its sovereignty, casting doubt on America’s longstanding alliance and trade partnership, and disrupting years of cordial cooperation across various sectors.
Mr. Carney, 60, is new to politics but has an extensive background in central banking and finance. He became the leader of Canada’s Liberal Party on March 9 and took office as prime minister on March 14. He succeeded Justin Trudeau, who had headed the Liberals for 13 years and governed the nation for nearly a decade but had seen his popularity decline significantly.
It was widely anticipated that Mr. Carney would call for an election promptly. He currently does not hold a seat in Canada’s Parliament, and the Liberals lack a majority, meaning the government could face a no-confidence vote as early as Monday if an election were not called.
The main challenger to the Liberals is the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre.
Mr. Trump’s confrontational approach towards Canada has favored the Liberals and Mr. Carney. Prior to Mr. Trump’s administration, the Conservatives were leading in polls by double digits, making a Poilievre victory seem almost inevitable.
However, voters have started to feel that Mr. Poilievre shares too much of Mr. Trump’s political ideology to effectively challenge him, and they appreciate Mr. Carney’s expertise in economics and his extensive international experience. Recent polls indicate that Mr. Carney and the Liberals have successfully closed a 25-percentage-point gap previously held by the Conservatives, putting both parties in a closely contested race as they head into the elections.
Who’s running?
Mr. Carney and the Liberals will be up against the Conservatives and Mr. Poilievre, 45, a career politician known for his aggressive speaking style and willingness to adopt some of Mr. Trump’s tactics.
Mr. Poilievre is a traditional conservative who has consistently advocated for deregulation, tax reductions, and the dismantling of Trudeau-era environmental policies to enable Canada to enhance the extraction of its abundant natural resources, especially oil and gas.
Mr. Poilievre has also engaged in cultural issues, adopting terminology from Mr. Trump: He criticizes practices and politicians as “woke,” he has called for the defunding of the national broadcaster, and he asserts that there are only two genders.
Moreover, he aims to position Canada as the global leader in cryptocurrency, reflecting a similar enthusiasm for alternative financial assets as Mr. Trump.
In contrast, Mr. Carney has been well-known in the public sphere for many years, though not necessarily as a politician. He served as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 global financial crisis and of the Bank of England during Brexit.
Since then, he has held senior roles in the private sector and has become a leading advocate for sustainable investment, recently taking on duties as a United Nations special envoy on climate action and finance.
In his brief time in office, Mr. Carney has portrayed himself as knowledgeable in economic matters and adept on the global stage, although he is still adjusting to the scrutiny that comes with high public office.
The third party in the race, the Bloc Quebecois, is headed by Yves-François Blanchet and is focused on Quebec nationalism.
Canada’s fourth-largest political entity, the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, positions itself to the left of the Liberals. The NDP previously supported the Liberal minority government in the House of Commons until September, successfully pushing for some of its key social policies in exchange.
How do Canada’s elections work?
Canada employs a first-past-the-post electoral system, which means candidates who receive the most votes in their respective districts win, irrespective of achieving a majority. Voters elect local representatives for the House of Commons, not individual party leaders as seen in presidential systems. Party leaders are then selected by their respective parties and can assume the role of prime minister.
The country is divided into 343 electoral districts, referred to in Canada as ridings, each corresponding to a seat in the House of Commons.
To establish a majority government, a party must secure 172 seats. If the leading party has less than 172, it can still form a minority government but would require support from another party to pass legislation.
What happens next?
In the lead-up to the election, Mr. Carney will continue as prime minister, effectively leading the country alongside his cabinet. However, they will enter “caretaker” mode, focusing solely on essential matters such as addressing routine or urgent issues, and refraining from making significant or contentious decisions.
Both parties and their leaders will commence campaigning immediately. This period is crucial for Mr. Carney, as he is not an experienced campaign strategist, unlike Mr. Poilievre, who is skilled in engaging voters.
Both candidates will traverse the expansive country to garner support. Mr. Carney’s campaign will allow journalists to travel alongside him at their own expense.
In contrast, Mr. Poilievre’s campaign has stated that media representatives will not be permitted to accompany him during his travels, although he welcomes news coverage due to logistical concerns.
