Nuclear Weapons Alert for Donald Trump as NATO Allies Reassess U.S. Commitments

While President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to eliminate nuclear weapons, experts in nuclear policy indicate that the ambiguity surrounding global alliances he is fostering could lead more nations to explore their own nuclear options.

This raises the specter of a new nuclear proliferation wave, where an increase in the number of states possessing nuclear weapons could heighten the risk of either deliberate or accidental deployment of such arms—or even spark World War III.

Elena Sokova, executive director of the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, noted, “Many countries that previously opted against pursuing nuclear weapons did so precisely because of the security assurances afforded by the United States and its alliances.”

“My primary concern lies with the dynamics between the United States and Europe, historically reliable partners, and similarly within Asia. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region are also feeling the strain and expressing doubts about the dependability of these alliances.”

Newsweek reached out to the U.S. State Department for their insights.

Trump’s Vision for a Nuclear-Free World

Trump has advocated for denuclearization discussions with Russia and China, stating on Thursday that “it would be wonderful if everyone would dispose of their nuclear weapons.”

However, European nations are unsettled by the security strategies of the Trump administration, with many openly questioning the viability of the longstanding U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which has served as their primary shield for decades.

Trump has not only cultivated a closer relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and indicated a willingness to offer concessions to resolve the Ukraine conflict—contrary to the preferences of European nations—but his administration has also pushed them to boost their defense budgets and seemed ready to scale back the number of U.S. troops stationed in Europe. Additionally, Trump has made provocative remarks toward Panama and suggested the U.S. should annex Greenland, potentially making Canada the 51st state.

Identifying U.S. Allies

Allies of the U.S., including Japan and South Korea in Asia, as well as nations in the Middle East, are closely monitoring the situation and reevaluating their reliance on American military protection.

Lukasz Kulesa, director of Proliferation and Nuclear Policy at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain, stated, “There are ongoing discussions in Europe, along with interest in nuclear capabilities among nations such as South Korea. Many will evaluate their positions and observe.” He emphasized, “It is not a decision any nation would undertake lightly, especially in light of recent turbulent weeks under the Trump administration.”

Current Nuclear-Armed States

As of now, only nine countries are recognized to possess nuclear arms, ranked by the number of warheads: Russia, the United States, China, France, Britain, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.

The Federation of American Scientists also counts decommissioned warheads awaiting dismantlement in its assessments.

The U.S. “nuclear umbrella,” a promise to safeguard allies in exchange for their abstention from developing nuclear weapons, has been pivotal in curbing nuclear proliferation since 1945, according to Sharon Squassoni, a research professor at George Washington University and former U.S. government official.

“Confidence in the United States is at an unprecedented low. It would not surprise me in the least to observe a surge in nuclear weapon proliferation reminiscent of the post-World War II era amidst this turmoil. Such a scenario would certainly render the world considerably more perilous,” she told Newsweek.

Potential New Nuclear States

Iran is considered the most likely candidate to develop nuclear capabilities in the near future. Despite Trump’s assertions that he will prevent the main adversary of nuclear-armed Israel from acquiring such weapons and has increased pressure for negotiations, he maintains a military option.

If Iran were to successfully obtain nuclear weapons, it could trigger a ripple effect among other regional players, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Although Turkey hosts U.S. nuclear arsenal under NATO agreements, it has also expressed interest in developing its own capabilities, a prospect that could gain traction if NATO’s cohesion weakens, especially in light of Turkey’s historical tensions with Russia.

In Europe, France has proposed extending its nuclear protection to other nations, receiving initially positive responses, while Russia has deemed it “extremely confrontational.”

Friedrich Merz, the likely incoming Chancellor of Germany, stated he would engage with both France and Britain regarding the extension of nuclear safeguards. However, as time progresses, other countries—potentially Germany—may feel compelled to act if a credible European deterrent is not swiftly established, according to experts. At the very least, France and Britain might need to enhance their arsenals.

There is also growing uncertainty in East Asia, where South Korea and Japan have historically relied on the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

The Legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Polling indicates that a significant majority of South Koreans support the development of an independent nuclear deterrent. Conversely, while most Japanese citizens oppose this due to the grim legacy of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, that sentiment could shift if the perception of U.S. protection diminishes.

Self-governing Taiwan never produced nuclear weapons but engaged in research on the subject, currently depending on U.S. support due to the looming threat from China, which regards Taiwan as a breakaway region.

According to Sokova, “Launching a nuclear program is a significant undertaking. It requires considerable financial resources. While some nations may aspire to develop nuclear weapons, their technological capacities or other constraints may work against that ambition.”

Understanding Nuclear Weapon Production

For countries with established nuclear power capabilities, acquiring, processing, and enriching nuclear isotopes is more straightforward. Subsequent steps include designing and constructing weapons as well as testing delivery systems—all while under the watchful gaze of potential adversaries. The fact that North Korea, one of the poorest nations globally, was able to develop nuclear weapons illustrates that any state with sufficient determination can achieve this goal.

International agreements and organizations are positioned to curtail the spread of nuclear arms. Many nations honor their commitments under the U.N. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. This treaty includes a safeguard system managed by the International Atomic Energy Agency that ensures compliance.

Squassoni remarked, “There are still organizations and treaties in place, and a prevailing sense that the world hasn’t entirely descended into chaos. However, we are indeed at a perilous juncture.”