The prospect of systemic collapse in the United States, though difficult to fathom, can no longer be dismissed. The deterioration of federal governance under Donald Trump and Elon Musk may set off a series of interconnected crises, resulting in social, financial, and industrial breakdown.
Several mechanisms could lead to this outcome, starting with their blatant attack on financial regulation. Trump’s choice for the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), Russell Vought, has halted all agency functions, curtailed its budget, and may pursue Musk’s goal to “eliminate” the bureau. Created by Congress following the 2008 financial meltdown, the CFPB was designed to shield individuals from the predatory practices that contributed to the crisis. The message to the financial industry is clear: “Seize the opportunity.” A financial disaster in the U.S. would swiftly escalate into a global catastrophe.
However, the threats extend even further. Musk’s call for a “complete deregulation” sends his supporters to undermine government departments that stabilize the entire U.S. system. Regulations, often criticized by corporate interests and oligarchic narratives, are vital safeguards against various disasters. In its immediate effects, deregulation constitutes class warfare, disadvantaging the lower and middle classes for the benefit of the affluent. As the ramifications spread, it becomes a threat to everyone’s welfare.
For instance, this year’s wildfires in Los Angeles are projected to incur insured losses ranging from $28 billion to $75 billion, with total losses estimated between $160 billion and $275 billion. These staggering costs may pale in comparison to future climate catastrophes. As Trump dismantles environmental safeguards and undermines federal responsiveness, the fallout could increase exponentially, potentially creating non-linear shocks to the insurance sector or homeowners, leading to a nationwide economic and social crisis.
If (or when) another pandemic occurs—potentially involving a pathogen more contagious and deadly than Covid-19, which has so far claimed 1.2 million lives in the U.S.—it will strike a nation with diminished defenses. Basic public health measures, such as vaccination and quarantine, may become inaccessible to many. In such circumstances, a pandemic could result in millions of deaths and trigger spontaneous economic shutdowns.
Given the general lack of public understanding regarding the operation of complex systems, collapse often takes virtually everyone by surprise. Complex systems, such as economies and societies, possess characteristics that can render them either resilient or fragile. A system that lacks diversity, redundancy, modularity (compartmentalisation), circuit breakers (such as government regulations), and backup strategies (alternative methods to achieve objectives) is less resilient than one that retains these attributes. Similarly, systems whose processes become synchronized are at risk; disruptions in one area can escalate into widespread disaster. This cascading failure is what happened to the financial system in 2008, as elucidated by Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England.
Globalized capitalism consistently undermines systemic resilience. As corporations chase similar profit-making strategies and financialization and digitization infiltrate enterprises, the economic system loses diversity and begins to synchronize. As conglomerates consolidate and become central hubs to which numerous other businesses are linked—such as Amazon or Cargill—major disruptions may cascade rapidly across the system.
In the pursuit of efficiencies, organizations diminish redundancy. Standardization of trading practices and infrastructure (e.g., uniform container terminals, shipping, and trucking networks) leads to a loss of both modularity and backup strategies. When a system lacks resilience, even minor external shocks can trigger cascading failure.
Ironically, through his trade wars and attacks on global standards, Trump may inadvertently desynchronize the system and restore some modularity. However, as he simultaneously dismantles circuit breakers and undermines preparedness, treating Earth’s systems as adversarial forces, the overall impact will likely heighten the vulnerability of human systems to collapse.
In the short term, the far right often capitalizes on chaos and disruption, creating feedback loops that transform crises into catastrophes. Trump presents himself as the savior of the nation amidst the turmoil he causes while shifting blame onto scapegoats.
Alternatively, if collapse appears imminent, Trump and his administration may choose inaction. Many wealthy individuals, including those within or connected to his administration, indulge in the type of psychopathic fantasies depicted in Ayn Rand’s novels, such as *Atlas Shrugged* and *The Fountainhead*, where the elite abandon the masses to perish in the inferno they’ve ignited, retreating to bunkers in New Zealand, Mars, or the ocean depths—ignoring that their wealth, power, and survival rely entirely on others. Some even fantasize about a different kind of apocalypse, where the rest suffer while they celebrate with Jesus in a restored kingdom.
Governments should aspire for the best while preparing for the worst. However, like many issues—climate change, ecological collapse, freshwater depletion, food system failures, antibiotic resistance, and nuclear proliferation—most governments, including the UK’s, seem inclined to hope for the best without further action. Although effective government is irreplaceable, we must strive to establish our backup systems.
Begin with this essential principle: do not confront your fears in isolation. Cultivate friendships, engage with neighbors, create support networks, and assist those facing difficulties. Historically, individuals with strong social connections have exhibited greater resilience than those without them.
Engage in discussions about our challenges, exploring potential responses. Through neighborhood alliances, start constructing a deliberative, participatory democracy to address some of the issues resolvable at the local level. If possible, secure local resources for the community (in England, this will be facilitated by the forthcoming community right to buy, similar to Scotland’s initiative).
From these democratized neighborhoods, we might aspire to develop a new political framework, as proposed by Murray Bookchin, in which decisions ascend rather than descend, aiming to establish a political system that is not only more democratic than those we currently endure, but also allows for greater diversity, redundancy, and modularity.
Indeed, we also urgently need national and global actions facilitated by governments. However, it increasingly seems that we lack dependable support. Prepare for the worst.
