President Trump claims his priority is to end the “death march” in Ukraine “as quickly as possible.”
However, for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, any cease-fire discussions with Mr. Trump serve broader strategic purposes.
On Monday, Russian and American officials are scheduled to convene in Saudi Arabia to further discuss the technical specifics of a potential partial cease-fire aimed at ceasing attacks on energy facilities and ships in the Black Sea. Ukraine has expressed readiness for a complete cease-fire, but Mr. Putin has indicated he will demand various concessions beforehand.
The implication is that the Kremlin is intent on extracting as many advantages as it can from Mr. Trump’s wish for a peace settlement in Ukraine, all while dragging out the negotiations. From Moscow’s perspective, improved relations with Washington are economically and geopolitically advantageous — a goal that could be pursued even as Russian missiles continue to strike Ukraine.
Recent interviews with senior Russian officials at a security conference in New Delhi revealed that the Kremlin views negotiations on Ukraine and U.S.-Russia relations as operating on two distinct levels. Mr. Putin is still pursuing a comprehensive victory in Ukraine but is indulging Mr. Trump’s cease-fire initiative to gain the benefits of improved ties with the United States.
Vyacheslav Nikonov, deputy chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the Russian Parliament, remarked that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin are creating a “bilateral agenda” that is “unrelated to Ukraine.”
“The situation in Ukraine is unfolding,” Mr. Nikonov stated in an interview during the Raisina Dialogue conference in New Delhi. “The offensive is in progress,” he added. “However, I believe that for Putin, maintaining relations with America holds greater significance than the issue of Ukraine itself.”
Moscow appears to believe that engaging with Mr. Trump could provide economic advantages, such as spare parts for Russia’s Boeing aircraft, along with broader geopolitical benefits, including a decrease in NATO’s presence in Europe. It remains uncertain whether Mr. Trump will utilize these expectations as leverage to secure a better arrangement for Ukraine, or whether he may eventually become impatient with Mr. Putin.
“Mr. Trump favors swift agreements,” noted Aleksandr A. Dynkin, an international relations expert advising the Russian Foreign Ministry. “If he encounters significant obstacles, he might become disillusioned and abandon the issue.”
Consequently, Mr. Putin appears to be making every effort to keep Mr. Trump engaged.
During a meeting in Moscow with White House envoy Steve Witkoff this month, Mr. Putin presented a “stunning portrait of President Trump” commissioned from a Russian artist, according to Mr. Witkoff’s recent interview.
“It was a truly gracious moment,” Mr. Witkoff recounted during an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
Regarding Ukraine, Mr. Putin has shown no inclination to waver from his extensive objectives — namely ensuring that Ukraine never joins NATO, reversing the Western alliance’s influence in Central and Eastern Europe, imposing restrictions on Ukraine’s military, and exerting some influence over Ukraine’s domestic politics.
Feodor Voitolovsky, director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, indicated that Russia would seek a “road map” for a more comprehensive agreement before consenting to any cease-fire.
He also mentioned that Russia would be amenable to a United Nations peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, provided it did not include troops from NATO nations.
“For Russia, long-term benefits outweigh the significance of a tactical cease-fire,” stated Mr. Voitolovsky, who serves on advisory boards for the Russian Foreign Ministry and Security Council. “We could develop a framework that would allow Russia and the United States, as well as Russia and NATO, to coexist without overstepping each other’s interests,” he added.
To pursue such an agreement, Russia is appealing to Mr. Trump’s business-oriented perspective. Mr. Voitolovsky argued that a significant consensus regarding Ukraine is essential for U.S.-Russian collaboration and that Mr. Trump, being a businessman, recognizes that Russian assets are presently undervalued.
Mr. Dynkin, the international relations expert, indicated that the Kremlin might consider removing the United States from its list of “unfriendly countries,” which currently restricts American firms’ operational capabilities within Russia.
He pointed out that Russia has a keen interest in negotiations regarding the aviation sector, especially considering the difficulties faced by Russian airlines in maintaining their American-made aircraft. The U.S. could permit the export of aircraft spare parts and reinstate direct flights to Moscow; in turn, Russia could allow American airlines to overfly Siberia, a privilege it revoked in 2022.
Anastasia Likhacheva, dean of international affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, expressed skepticism that Mr. Trump would provide immediate and extensive relief from sanctions.
Nonetheless, she stated that easing tensions with the United States could lead to less strict enforcement of sanctions and facilitate Russian companies in operating internationally by signaling that Russia is no longer a contentious partner.
“Such a detox,” she remarked, “could be advantageous and enhance our range of possibilities.”
