Shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan’s leadership participated alongside the United States and its allies in expressing support for Ukraine. They emphasized the shared values of democracy, noting that both Taiwan and Ukraine face threats from their imposing authoritarian neighbors.
Now, with President Trump’s shift in stance towards Ukraine, there may be growing concerns in Taiwan about the reliability of American assistance should tensions with China escalate, as Beijing asserts its claim over the self-governed island.
“Taiwan has spent considerable time over the last three years advocating for the connection between the fates of democracies, highlighting that events in Ukraine have repercussions for Taiwan,” said Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute based in Washington.
“Given the seemingly abrupt shift in the U.S. position on the Ukraine conflict,” Mr. Hsiao noted, “it may lead some individuals in Taiwan to question whether the U.S. could ultimately abandon them.”
For years, Taiwan has confronted the threat of a potential invasion from China, which regularly conducts flights and naval operations to test Taiwan’s defense capabilities. The island’s capacity to deter an attack largely depends on the United States’ readiness to provide support, including military involvement. Strengthening ties with Washington has been a cornerstone of Taiwan’s foreign and defense policy for nearly a decade.
However, as Mr. Trump reverses U.S. policy regarding Ukraine by dismissing Western efforts to sanction Russia and placing blame on Ukraine, U.S. allies, including Taiwan, are compelled to reevaluate their own standing and consider how to gain Mr. Trump’s favor.
In Taiwan, Mr. Trump’s critical remarks about Ukraine may enhance public sentiment that the island has been perpetually let down by Washington and cannot depend on its assurances.
“The idea of the United States negotiating a settlement with Russia while excluding Ukraine from the discussions will further engender skepticism about American commitments in Taiwan,” said Marcin Jerzewski, head of the Taiwan office at the European Values Center for Security Policy, which aims to promote collaboration between European and Asian democracies.
Some unease has emerged on social media, with various Taiwanese commentators suggesting that should conflict arise between China and Taiwan, Mr. Trump might adopt a similarly transactional approach. (Officials in Taiwan have pointed out that the Chinese government discreetly amplifies skeptical discourse about Washington online.)
Recently, a gathering of Ukrainians and Taiwanese took place outside the de facto Russian embassy in Taipei. “Russia is the aggressor,” stated one organizer—an implicit yet pointed message directed at Mr. Trump.
“If he can abandon Ukraine today—and I question whether he truly will—could he also turn his back on Taiwan?” remarked Huang Yu-hsiang, a 23-year-old technician present at the protest. “If he no longer values democratic principles, it raises concerns about Taiwan’s security, a steadfast pro-democracy supporter.”
Mr. Trump does not seem committed to upholding Taiwanese democracy, contributing to worries that he might jeopardize Taiwan’s welfare for a major trade agreement with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who has previously communicated that Taiwan is an essential issue in their relations.
At present, Taiwanese officials have been optimistic regarding relations with Washington, prudently avoiding a direct clash with Mr. Trump. During a security forum in Taipei last week, President Lai Ching-te portrayed Taiwan as a pivotal player in the global fight of democracies against authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China, and Iran. However, Taiwan’s more recent expressions of support for Ukraine have been cautious, deliberately sidestepping specifics regarding Mr. Trump’s actions.
What is Taiwan’s perspective on the possibility of the United States ceasing support for Ukraine or compelling it to accept terms that favor Russia? Joseph Wu, secretary general of Taiwan’s National Security Council and a former foreign minister, dodged the inquiry at the same security forum.
“Having served in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for over six years, I understand there are certain things I can discuss and others I cannot,” Mr. Wu stated. He stressed that Taiwan recognizes the necessity of strengthening its military capabilities. “Our destiny is in our own hands,” he affirmed.
When President Vladimir V. Putin commenced his full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, Taiwanese officials were already apprehensive that Mr. Xi might feel emboldened to undertake a similar action regarding Taiwan. Under Xi’s leadership, China has enforced a severe security crackdown in Hong Kong alongside a rapid military expansion.
Then-President Tsai Ing-wen and her administration drew rhetorical connections between Taiwan and Ukraine to bolster public support for military preparations and strengthen bonds with other democracies.
Invaders must face consequences, Bi-khim Hsiao, currently Taiwan’s vice president, remarked to reporters in 2023, during her tenure as the main representative in Washington. “We must ensure that anyone contemplating an invasion understands this,” she said, “which highlights the importance of Ukraine’s success in its defense against aggression for Taiwan as well.”
Taiwan is aware that Mr. Trump’s potential return to the White House would create uncertainty in U.S. relations, even prior to his recent comments regarding Ukraine.
As both a presidential candidate and subsequently in office, Mr. Trump criticized Taiwan for underinvesting in its military and exhibiting complacency in expectations of U.S. help in the event of conflict. He also alleged that Taiwan has gained an unfair advantage in the production of advanced semiconductors for smartphones and other technologies.
However, Taiwanese officials and experts argue that, despite Mr. Trump’s pressure, Taiwan is considerably different from Ukraine and holds greater economic significance to the United States. They contend that the Trump administration perceives China as a more urgent challenge than Russia, hence Taiwan’s potential as a loyal ally in this context.
Currently, Mr. Lai, Taiwan’s president, is working to prevent any significant fallout with Mr. Trump. This month, he revealed plans for Taiwan to increase military expenditure to at least 3 percent of its GDP (up from approximately 2.45 percent this year). He also indicated that the island—home to the world’s largest number of semiconductor manufacturing facilities—would devise plans in response to Mr. Trump’s request for more such plants to be established in the United States.
“From new arms acquisitions to energy imports and semiconductor facilities in the U.S., the Lai administration will need to create an optimal strategy that captures Mr. Trump’s attention and accelerates the process,” emphasized Mr. Hsiao, the researcher in Washington. “Timeliness is crucial for Taipei.”
