Donald Trump’s return to the presidency is turning out to be more troubling for US allies and friends than for its adversaries. China, while wary of a trade war with the US, appears to be better equipped than others to handle Trump’s tariffs, and both nations seem to be leaving open the possibility for a future agreement. Despite the challenges posed by a second term for Trump, Beijing is also encountering new opportunities along with its difficulties.
The previous Trump administration saw a significant decline in international respect for the US. As the current president intensifies pressure on long-standing partners, China is keen to capitalize on the situation. For instance, Colombia quickly acquiesced to Trump’s demands regarding migrant returns, while China’s ambassador has been reveling in what he calls the “best moment” in China-Colombia relations. Under the Trump regime’s pressure, Panama decided to let its engagement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) lapse. However, behind-the-scenes efforts have already begun steering Panama back towards Washington. Trump’s strategies of intimidation may backfire not just there, but across Latin America as a whole.
Trump is expected to encounter greater resistance globally, particularly in regions such as Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The US has a history of wielding hard power, but trade, aid, and military alliances have also played vital roles in its global dominance—roles that seem to be waning. Trump’s decision to cut financial aid to South Africa may please figures like Elon Musk, yet it unnecessarily alienates a crucial middle power. His claim that the US will extend its territories in several areas—potentially via military action—highlights his disregard for legality, mirrored by his directive to suspend enforcement of laws against foreign bribery.
China could potentially gain from the vacuum left by US aid reductions, as it already funds some affected organizations. However, its emphasis on loans and infrastructure over genuine partnerships suggests it might struggle to fill the financial void left by the US.
Countries today are not naive about engaging with China, yet many may feel compelled to diversify their alliances. China is likely to see an uptick in influence within multilateral institutions and among middle-income nations, which tend to hold a more favorable view of it compared to high-income countries.
Mr. Vance’s criticisms of European leaders at the Munich Security Conference and his backing of the far-right was a moment of blatant revelation. However, rather than extending a cooperative hand, Beijing has appointed a controversial “wolf warrior” diplomat as its special representative for European affairs. Lu Shaye, the former ambassador to France, stirred anger by questioning the sovereignty of former Soviet republics and disputing Ukraine’s claims over Crimea. As China and the US vie for influence, many nations may find themselves not courted, but coerced by both sides.
China has ascended in global standing more swiftly than anticipated, while simultaneously observing the decline of US power at an alarming rate. This scenario is favorable for a nation that aspires to a multipolar world devoid of burdensome universal values. However, the real question lies not only in how other nations will respond to China’s rising power, but in whether a nation reluctant to take on security responsibilities will have to step up, or grapple with the void created by its inaction.
