President Donald Trump has embarked on his second term with poll numbers that are among the best he has ever experienced in his political career, just under a month in.
Interestingly, there exists a notable contradiction within these numbers: while Americans view Trump unfavorably, they still approve of his job performance.
As per 538, which aggregates reliable polling data, Trump’s current net unfavorable rating stands at +1.6 (unfavorable 48.1 percent against favorable 46.5 percent), while his net approval rating for the presidency is +3.3 (approve 48.9 percent against disapprove 45.6 percent).
Since his election victory, there has been a marked uptick in Trump’s favorability trend, with more Americans expressing favorable views and fewer unfavorable. Nonetheless, since his presidency commenced, his unfavorable rating has begun to rise again.
Despite maintaining a positive net approval rating since his inauguration, that margin has shrunk from its initial high of +8.2 in the early days of his new term.
So, how unusual is it for a president to possess a negative favorability while still enjoying positive job approval? And what could account for this discrepancy? Newsweek consulted experts for their insights. Here’s what they had to say.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
Chris Jackson: Small Group of Americans Reflect Trump Difference
It’s not particularly unusual for Americans to have differing opinions on public officials, assessing them as individuals (favorability) versus their job performance (approval).
Some qualitative research indicates that there exists a small but notable group of Americans who may not personally appreciate President Trump or his demeanor, yet believe he is well-suited for the task at hand.
I believe this accounts for the gap in perceptions.
Chris Jackson is senior vice president, US, public affairs, at IPSOS.
Melvyn P. Leffler: Compare Trump’s Ratings to Biden’s
It’s vital to note that Biden had a favorability rating of over 50 percent during this same period in his presidency.
Melvyn P. Leffler is Edward Stettinius professor of history, emeritus, at the University of Virginia.
Lee Miringoff: Trump Has Battle Scars
The approval rating centers on job performance, where the public is, to some degree, giving the president a positive reception for his second term; however, polarization may hinder a significant honeymoon period, likely remnants from it.
It’s uncertain if he is risking that support as the public begins to question the feasibility of his policy directions.
The unfavorable rating is more concerned with his character, reflecting some of the scars from his previously contentious tenure and worries regarding his public tone and style.
For instance, Ronald Reagan once had a low approval rating but enjoyed high favorability; concerns about his policies existed, yet he was generally liked. Conversely, Bill Clinton maintained a high approval rating (due to the economy) but faced low favorability due to scandals like Monica Lewinsky.
Lee Miringoff is director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
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Christopher P. Borick: These Americans Played a Key Role in Trump’s Election
Although favorability and approval ratings for elected officials are generally similar, crucial differences in what each measures can explain discrepancies in results.
Favorability relates to an individual’s sentiments regarding an official, primarily assessing positive or negative perceptions of the person. In contrast, job approval ratings gauge satisfaction with an official’s performance in their role.
For some, separating feelings about a person from opinions on their work can be challenging; however, it does occur. Certain Americans might disfavor Donald Trump due to his personality and previous actions but remain generally satisfied with his policies.
This segment of the population may be small, but in a deeply divided nation, they were significant in last year’s election and support Trump’s assertion that his efforts are backed by public approval.
Christopher P. Borick is a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
Charles Franklin: There Are Mixed Feelings About Trump
Typically, approval and favorability ratings align closely. However, during the late 1990s, Bill Clinton’s approval remained in the high 50s and low 60s during the Monica Lewinsky scandal while his favorability plummeted from +15 net favorable to -10 net favorable in late 1998 and 1999.
Our Marquette Law School National Poll released on February 12 reveals that 36 percent reported only negative things about Trump in response to the open-ended question, “What do you like about Trump?”
Conversely, when asked “What do you dislike about Trump?”, only 14 percent provided solely positive feedback. Notably, a full 47 percent expressed both favorable and unfavorable sentiments.
A common critique among Trump’s supporters pertains to his communication style, with comments like, “he talks too much” and “the way he talks is too crude”. However, many also remarked positively on aspects such as “he’s fulfilling his campaign promises” and “his achievements in a few days surpass what Biden has accomplished”.
Those expressing mixed opinions often indicate an unfavorable view of Trump’s persona, while remaining supportive of his actions and policies.
Charles Franklin is a professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll.
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Jeffrey A. Engel: Vigorous Presidents Do Well in Their First Month
These statistics are logical. Americans desire observable action, particularly from a new administration, which is why even those that are less frantic usually enjoy an initial bump in approval ratings.
Most voters, irrespective of political affiliation, experience dissatisfaction, and the current headlines about the new president ‘taking action’ will likely lead many to instinctively approve.
I attribute the recent uptick in disapproval to those voters who care about specific programs being reduced.
Voters familiar with the functions of agencies like USAID or NIH are likely alarmed by their elimination. Yet, for those to whom those terms are just jargon, seeing a president who is perceived as active is commendable.
It’s common to observe favorable ratings for presidents in their first month, especially those who project vigor.
Jeffrey A. Engel is the David Gergen director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University.
Allan Lichtman: Trump’s Flaws Outweigh Positives
Trump has consistently faced poor favorability ratings as many Americans object to various facets of his character: his disregard for the law, dishonest conduct, and alleged sexual harassment.
These shortcomings overshadow what some regard as positive traits: his assertiveness and frankness, coupled with a tendency to challenge conventional wisdom.
His approval ratings exceed his favorability ratings largely because he and his supporters have effectively communicated his key policies: reducing government overspending, streamlining the federal bureaucracy, and deporting undocumented criminals.
Public support for these initiatives marginally surpasses disapproval concerning other triggers like abolishing birthright citizenship, pardoning individuals involved in the January 6 events, dissolving the Department of Education, and ceasing foreign aid.
Democrats also play a role in Trump’s relatively high approval ratings, having failed to present a strong counter-narrative effectively. Democratic arguments have lagged behind their Republican counterparts for years.
My summarization of American politics is: “Republicans lack principles; Democrats lack courage.”
Allan Lichtman is distinguished professor of history at American University.
