As 2025 begins, voters are feeling less optimistic about the economy and President Donald Trump’s management of it, despite his recent election for a second term generating a temporary boost in positive sentiment about the country’s direction, according to a new NBC News national poll.
With a spirited and united Republican Party firmly standing behind Trump and the broad initiatives he and congressional leaders are advocating in Washington, a greater number of registered voters believe the U.S. is moving in the right direction than at any point since early 2004. However, most still feel the country is on the wrong track. Trump’s approval rating has matched his peak as president at 47%, yet a majority, 51%, still disapprove of his leadership.
Faced with a noticeable dip in sentiment among Democrats since Trump’s election, only 18% of voters categorize the economy as “excellent” or “good” — scarcely higher than the lowest economic ratings during the Biden presidency, as per CNBC polling from 2022. This figure is on par with recent NBC News polling trends since 2014. A significant majority of voters disapprove of Trump’s initial performance regarding the economy (54% disapprove, 44% approve) and his approach to inflation and living costs (55% disapprove, 42% approve).
This marks a new challenge for Trump, who had never faced a majority disapproval rating concerning his economic management in previous NBC News polls. Now, he contends with unstable markets and business concerns as he takes early steps to impose tariffs on neighboring countries and other allies. Voters are questioning whether he is adequately addressing their primary concerns about expenses while he engages in other initiatives, such as restructuring federal bureaucracy.
The poll illustrates an America that remains significantly polarized in the aftermath of Trump’s 2024 win, much like in the preceding months.
While voters exhibit a narrow disapproval of Trump’s overall job competencies, the gap is among the closest observed during his initial term. His personal ratings and the proportion of Republicans identifying with the MAGA movement have increased, demonstrating the solid support within his party that grants him significant freedom in a GOP-led Washington.
In contrast to his first term, public opinion has evolved regarding his immigration policies focused on deportation, although concerns remain regarding his management of other areas, such as foreign policy.
Voters generally approve of the concept behind the Department of Government Efficiency, Trump’s initiative aimed at reducing governmental staffing and expenses. Nevertheless, they exhibit concerns over its hastily executed strategies and about billionaire advisor Elon Musk, DOGE’s acting chief.
Additionally, voters appear equally divided over which party they prefer to win the 2026 midterm elections, despite the Democratic Party experiencing historically low favorability and internal conflicts concerning their response to Trump. (The assessment was conducted from March 7-11, prior to Senate Democrats contributing to a resolution for a government funding conflict.)
Read more from the NBC News poll
“This survey presents a mixed picture for Donald Trump, but it’s the Democrats who seem lost at this moment,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt from Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll alongside Republican counterpart Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. Horwitt described Trump’s counterintuitive figures among independents as “a flashing red light throughout the survey.”
McInturff highlighted how Trump has strengthened his base over the past year. He stated that the political narrative for the upcoming year will revolve around whether voter discontent regarding the economy or other issues takes hold — “or if the strength of the Republican and Trump base has sustained a highly competitive election,” McInturff elaborated.
Trump’s expanded base and key issues
Trump’s job approval (47%) and personal favorability (46%) ratings, in addition to the 44% who believe the country is headed in the right direction, are at their highest levels ever recorded in NBC News polling during his political tenure.
Nonetheless, these figures are still significantly lower than the early approval ratings of past presidents, reflecting the polarization that has characterized the Trump era. Slightly more voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance (51%) than those who view him positively (49%), while 54% believe the country is on the wrong path.
Reiterating the deep partisan divide, Trump currently has the largest approval gap of any president in the last 80 years between his approval ratings from party members (90%) and disapproval from the opposition (4%), according to an analysis comparing three decades of NBC News polling and earlier data from Gallup.
Among independent voters, 30% express approval of Trump’s performance while 67% disapprove. A substantial gender gap persists, with 55% of men approving of Trump’s job performance compared to 43% disapproving, while 40% of women approve against 58% who disapprove.
Vice President JD Vance is viewed favorably by 41% of the electorate, while 47% have a negative opinion of him. This contrasts unfavorably with the even or positive perceptions of vice presidents at the start of the previous three administrations, based on NBC News polls.
Regarding key issues, Trump performs notably well on immigration, with 55% of voters approving his management of border security and immigration, while 43% disapprove. A comparable portion, 56%, feels that he is effecting the “right kind of change” on this matter, while 25% consider the change unfavorable, and 18% think he isn’t bringing any change at all.
However, immigration is the only issue among those evaluated in the poll — including foreign policy, the economy, inflation and cost of living, and the war between Russia and Ukraine — where a majority of American voters approve of Trump’s handling.
Forty-five percent approve of his foreign policy approach, compared to 53% who disapprove, while 42% support his handling of the war between Russia and Ukraine, with 55% disapproving.
Cost concerns dominate on the economy
The contrast in voter perception between his immigration success and economic issues surfaces after Trump identified them as key elements in his 2024 election victory, stating on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” in December: “I won on the border and I won on groceries.”
Only 1% perceive the economy as “excellent” and 17% as “good,” while 39% describe it as “only fair” and 43% classify it as “poor.” Although Republicans tend to have a more favorable outlook on the economy than others, majorities across nearly all demographics still register negative views.
About one-third (32%) of voters report that their household income has kept pace with the cost of living, while 60% feel they are falling behind. An additional 7% claim their income is outpacing rising costs.
When asked about their satisfaction with Trump’s actions to combat inflation, most respondents expressed dissatisfaction — 46% said they were “not at all satisfied,” while another 9% indicated they were “not too satisfied.” Conversely, 20% reported being “somewhat” satisfied and 23% “very” satisfied.
The NBC News poll also assessed voters’ opinions on the nature of change Trump is driving as president — 40% believe he is fostering appropriate changes in dealing with inflation and living costs, while 30% say he is enacting the wrong type of change and 28% feel he isn’t offering any change.
In terms of trade and tariffs, 41% feel he is initiating the right changes, while 38% say he is making the wrong adjustments and 18% think he isn’t instigating any changes.
Overall, 46% of respondents feel Trump is implementing the right kind of changes, while 30% think he is moving in the wrong direction, and 21% say he isn’t effecting any change.
DOGE and Musk are early flashpoints
Voters show a narrow openness to efforts aimed at addressing governmental inefficiencies. However, uncertainties regarding Musk and the performance of DOGE could pose a challenge for public opinion regarding the administration.
Forty-six percent believe the establishment of a Department of Government Efficiency was a positive move, while 40% oppose it, and an additional 13% are undecided. Nonetheless, DOGE itself maintains an unfavorable perception, with only 41% viewing its efforts positively against 47% expressing negativity.
Musk remains unpopular, with 51% holding a negative view of the tech innovator, in contrast to 39% who view him favorably. Half of voters (49%) have positive sentiments about federal employees, while 21% harbor negative perceptions, with 29% remaining neutral.
When asked about DOGE broadly, one-third believe Musk and DOGE’s attempts to cut expenditures and federal staffing “should continue as much more needs to be done.” Meanwhile, 28% think it is necessary but should slow down to evaluate the effects, and another 33% argue that it is reckless and should cease immediately to prevent further issues.
Democrats at a low point
While Trump’s standing predominantly relies on overwhelming support from his party, the Democratic Party currently faces its lowest favorability rating recorded in NBC News polling history. Only 27% of registered voters view the party positively, encompassing merely 59% of self-identified Democrats.
Additionally, 65% of Democrats wish for their elected officials to maintain their positions, even if that means legislative gridlock in Washington, while 32% prefer compromises with Trump to achieve consensus on policies.
Despite this division, voters are split on which party they wish to see control Congress following next year’s midterm elections: 48% favor Democrats, while 47% favor Republicans.
How different groups are handling Trump
As Trump continues to dominate Washington, 53% of registered voters feel Republicans in Congress are too supportive of him, while 6% believe they are overly critical, and 39% think they are handling Trump appropriately. Comparatively, 50% believe congressional Democrats are too critical of Trump, while 16% find them overly supportive, and 30% believe they are managing him correctly.
A plurality, 44%, feel the Supreme Court is addressing Trump appropriately, while 35% think it has been too lenient, and 14% believe it has been too harsh.
Nearly half, 49%, believe that corporate CEOs are overly supportive of Trump while 29% think they are dealing with him correctly, and 12% feel they are being too critical.
Regarding the news media, 46% of voters feel it has been overly critical of Trump, 25% think it has been too supportive, and 24% consider it is addressing him appropriately.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from March 7-11 through a combination of telephone interviews and an online survey distributed via text message. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
