We concur with President Donald Trump and others who assert that China’s trade infractions pose a genuine threat to U.S. economic interests and employment opportunities. However, his choice to initiate a trade war with China, and indeed the entire globe, is not an appropriate course of action. Various strategies, including tariffs and countervailing duties, can be implemented to address verifiable unfair trade practices, but sweeping tariffs are reckless and likely to inflict significant harm.
The president erroneously perceives America as having been deceived by cunning trading partners and exploited by ungrateful, freeloading allies.
The president mistakenly views America as a victim, believing that it has been cheated by unscrupulous trading partners and taken advantage of by unappreciative, freeloading allies over the past 80 years. We fundamentally reject this bleak perspective and assert that the president should heed the wise counsel of President Ronald Reagan, who warned, “We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.”
However, Trump has demonstrated scant interest in fostering friendships with our allies. He has inaccurately accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of provoking Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. He and Vice President JD Vance have displayed hostility toward Europe, the European Union, and NATO, severely undermining the transatlantic partnership to the extent that few believe the United States would honor an Article V commitment if Russia were to attack a NATO ally. Additionally, Trump’s derogatory remarks about making Canada the 51st state and his fixation on acquiring Greenland from Denmark have prompted longstanding friends and allies to reassess their relationships with the United States.
Trump also seeks to reclaim the Panama Canal, which was returned to Panama under a treaty decades ago. Sadly, for far too many nations across the globe, America is now perceived as a threat to the cause of freedom and democracy, rather than a protector of it.
Imperialism, spheres of influence, and Manifest Destiny have re-emerged with vigor.
It all feels so 19th-century, which may explain why President William McKinley’s name is frequently invoked to justify Trump’s aggressive tariff strategies.
Trump’s announcement of his so-called reciprocal tariff schedule this month utilized a formula that ignored the tariff rates set by other nations. His administration also overlooked non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation. The creator of this formula appears to have vanished, as they have not come forward to clarify it.
Trump’s tariff strategy has not only unsettled markets but has further isolated America and, more troublingly, has sparked a crisis of competence and confidence in the U.S. government. Markets are in turmoil, businesses are demanding predictability and stability, farmers are anxious about their export market access, and consumers are bracing for increased prices on essential goods. The fears of a self-inflicted recession are palpable. Never before in the history of this great republic have we witnessed such a poorly conceived and executed act of economic malpractice.
In conjunction with the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development and the planned silencing of the Voice of America along with other vital elements of American soft power, this unprovoked trade war conveys to the world that America is thoughtlessly withdrawing and isolating itself. Trump’s rejection of a more open trading system has caused many to worry that America is closed for business.
Conversely, China is opportunistically seizing the chance to connect with America’s disheartened friends, allies, and strategic partners. America’s withdrawal from global engagement is a significant concern, as it renders the world a much more perilous place. After all, trade wars often precede hot wars. The U.S. cannot withdraw from the global stage and reasonably expect security.
Fears of a self-inflicted recession are real.
Likewise, we cannot isolate ourselves from the global marketplace. Although the United States is the wealthiest nation on Earth with the strongest and most dynamic economy, we cannot navigate trade in isolation. Self-sufficiency is impractical, and the pursuit of balanced trade with each individual trading partner, as Trump seems to desire, is an impossibility. In fact, aiming for balanced overall trade through artificial trade barriers only makes sense to those who advocate for flawed economic principles.
Numerous factors influence trade balances, and the exchange of goods is merely one aspect of them. For instance, trade in services, which ought to be considered in the overall trade balance, was omitted from the administration’s erroneous tariff formula. Their inclusion would substantially reduce the trade deficit.
Before November’s election, we published an article in The Hill, warning of the dire consequences of Trump’s tariff threats. We predicted a stock market decline, rising inflation, suffering manufacturers, and harmed farmers, as well as the possibility of an ensuing recession. We stand by that assessment today, although we did not foresee that the administration would act with such recklessness regarding tariff impositions.
There are no winners in trade wars. The ongoing turbulence in the markets underscores this point, compelling Trump to acknowledge the need for a 90-day pause on many of his extreme, misguided, and so-called reciprocal tariff hikes. While this development is a welcomed reprieve, uncertainty and risk linger. The president’s ill-conceived tariff measures have signaled to the world that America has abandoned the post-World War II global order it has effectively led for the past 80 years.
America has abandoned the post-World War II global order it has led for the past 80 years.
In the quote from Reagan mentioned earlier, he continues: “The expansion of the international economy is not a foreign invasion; it is an American triumph, one we worked hard to achieve, and something central to our vision of a peaceful world of freedoms.”
We much prefer the bright light of Reagan’s shining city on the hill over the darkness of Trump’s American carnage. Clearly, the president and some of his economic advisors have recognized that their recent decisions need revision and correction. The pressing question is whether they will embrace reason in their future policymaking or continue to succumb to the chaos of the past few days.
