Former President Donald Trump casts a significant shadow in the closing weeks of Australia’s general election campaign, posing challenges for conservative opposition leader Peter Dutton as a recent poll reveals a sharp decline in Australians’ trust in the United States.
A survey published on Wednesday by the Lowy Institute, a research organization, indicated that only 36% of Australians have any confidence in the U.S. to act responsibly, a drop of 20 points since the previous survey in June 2024, marking the lowest level of faith recorded since the poll began two decades ago.
Analysts and academics note that Trump’s confrontational style and often unsettling policies, such as “reciprocal” tariffs against traditional allies and attacks on U.S. government institutions, have begun to unsettle Australian voters, echoing similar trends in Canada where the ruling party has seen a resurgence ahead of elections this month.
In tandem, the Labor Party led by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has experienced a significant rise in the polls, shifting from a six-point deficit against Dutton’s conservative coalition as recently as January to a potential lead of up to nine points, with just over three weeks remaining until the May 3 election.
“Trump has practically become the third contender in this election race,” remarked Mark Kenny, a political science professor at the Australian National University in Canberra.
“His influence has made it challenging for Peter Dutton to communicate his message clearly and to be viewed as an independent entity in this election cycle.”
Polled before tariff announcements
The Lowy survey corroborated earlier polling conducted by Resolve Strategic after Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, which showed that a third of voters — and 35% of undecided voters — expressed decreased likelihood of supporting Dutton due to Trump.
“Considering President Donald Trump’s groundbreaking approach to his second term, it’s understandable that Australians are losing trust in the United States,” stated Ryan Neelam, the Lowy Institute’s Director of Public Opinion and Foreign Policy.
The Lowy Institute polling took place in March, prior to Trump’s announcement of a series of tariffs, including a blanket 10% on all Australian imports.
Dutton has campaigned on various policies perceived as mimicking Trump, including his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiated by Elon Musk. In January, Dutton appointed Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as shadow minister for government efficiency, a role inspired by Musk’s initiative, according to analysts.
“With Australians frustrated by the escalating unnecessary spending… Jacinta will be examining ways to achieve a more efficient use of taxpayers’ funds,” Dutton stated at that time.
However, rising apprehensions about Trump’s policies have begun to negatively impact Dutton’s popularity.
‘DOGE-y Dutton’
In response to voter backlash, Dutton was compelled to retract a policy that would have mandated government employees to return to in-office work full-time while cutting tens of thousands of public sector positions.
Polling indicated that these policies were alienating voters in outer metropolitan areas, which house numerous pivotal electoral seats in Australia.
The Labor Party has effectively capitalized on the shift in public sentiment, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers consistently labeling the opposition leader as “DOGE-y Dutton.”
Albanese remarked on Tuesday that Dutton would implement “DOGE-style cuts” to the public sector if he assumed office.
“(Australians) are not comfortable with the turmoil and unpredictability emanating from the White House, and Dutton’s earlier eagerness, along with other conservatives, to celebrate Trump’s victory has effectively weighed him down throughout this campaign,” said Kenny from the Australian National University.
“That burden has only intensified as Trump’s popularity continues to wane.”
