UJ
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President Donald Trump expressed his belief that Vladimir Putin desires peace. However, Ukraine and its European partners remain skeptical of this notion, and the Russian leader himself has stated his intention for peace yet declined to commit when given the opportunity.
Nevertheless, what Putin truly seeks is far more significant.
The Russian president has openly declared his belief that Ukraine should not exist as an independent nation and has consistently voiced his desire for NATO to return to its Cold War size.
Above all else, he aspires to establish a new global order, positioning Russia at its center.
Emerging from KGB roots, Putin and several of his closest allies have not forgotten the shame of the Soviet Union’s collapse and are dissatisfied with the world that has emerged since then.
Rising to power amidst the turmoil of the 1990s, when the Russian economy faltered and required a bailout from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, was a significant humiliation for the former superpower.
However, beginning in 2000, when Putin assumed the presidency, climbing oil prices resulted in newfound wealth for Russia and its citizens, granting Russia a voice on the world stage; it was invited to join the G7, which became the G8 upon its entrance.
Yet, Kristine Berzina, a managing director at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, remarked to UJ that this was not sufficient for the Russian leader.
“Putin was willing to sacrifice all of this for higher geopolitical ambitions,” Berzina said. Russia was expelled from the G8 and faced Western sanctions and international isolation due to its aggressive actions toward Ukraine.
According to Berzina, it has never been sufficient for Russia to be the “eighth in the G7.”
“This does not align with Russia’s self-perception of exceptionalism. As the largest nation in the world, abundant in natural resources, how can it simply be one among many?” she stated.
To grasp what Putin hopes to achieve from current discussions with the US, it’s vital to realize that these talks arose from a policy shift by the United States under Trump — not from a genuine transformation in Russian mindset.
Trump is eager to see a swift end to the war in Ukraine, even if this may lead to further territorial setbacks for Ukraine.
Consequently, Putin finds little reason to refrain from engaging in discussions.
Trump has suggested that “Russia holds all the cards” in the conflict with Ukraine, but the fighting has primarily been stagnant over the past two years.
While Russia is making minor progress, it is certainly not claiming victory — though this could change should the US cease its provision of weapons and intelligence to Ukraine.
“Putin entered Ukraine under the impression that it would be a rapid and uncomplicated operation. Now, three years later, he controls 20% of Ukraine at a significant cost. Essentially, the Russians are facing losses, albeit the Ukrainians are facing them faster,” remarked Russia analyst Mark Galeotti during an interview with UJ.
For Putin and his circle, Trump’s call for a ceasefire presents an opportunity to gain quick victories while remaining focused on their long-term objectives, he added.
“Putin is an opportunist. He thrives in dynamic, chaotic situations that offer a variety of possibilities. He can select whichever opportunity suits him best, and change direction as needed,” Galeotti noted.
Putin and his advisors have made it abundantly clear that their long-term goals remain unchanged. While claiming a desire for peace, Russian officials continue to assert that the “root causes” of the conflict in Ukraine must be “addressed.”
In the Kremlin’s perspective, these “root causes” include Ukraine’s sovereignty, its democratically elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, and NATO’s eastward expansion over the past three decades.
Putin initiated the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to instigate regime change in Kyiv, intending to install a pro-Moscow administration. His objective was to transform Ukraine into a vassal state akin to Belarus and to block its future inclusion in the European Union and NATO.
Although he has not accomplished this goal through military force, it does not imply he has relinquished it.
Rather, he may pursue it through alternative methods.
“The simplest way for Russia to achieve its objectives in another country is not through military action, but through interference in the electoral process,” Berzina observed, suggesting that this approach is likely what Moscow would pursue post-ceasefire.
This explains why Russia continues to question Zelensky’s legitimacy and advocates for elections — and why the Kremlin was pleased when Trump echoed this sentiment, labeling the Ukrainian leader as “a dictator without elections.” The martial law in Ukraine, enacted due to Russian aggression, prohibits elections during the ongoing conflict.
Both Trump and his vice president, JD Vance, have dismissed the notion that Ukraine could join NATO in the near future, and Putin has demanded a US assurance that this will not happen as part of any ceasefire agreement.
However, Berzina asserted that Ukraine’s European allies are skeptical of Putin’s assurances that hostilities would cease if Ukraine were to adopt a policy of neutrality, as he has suggested.
“Regardless of what Trump and Putin believe they can negotiate this week or this year, many individuals in Europe view Putin as fundamentally untrustworthy,” she stated.
“Is there a chance Russia might attempt military action again? Absolutely. This is why Europeans are acutely aware of the potential for future military conflict.”
Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist and security expert currently in exile in London, indicated that Putin and his associates believe they can “extract something advantageous from Trump at this moment.”
“They think they can secure some strategic victories, but they do not anticipate receiving what they genuinely desire, which is a complete reconstruction of security frameworks in Europe,” he expressed.
“For the Kremlin, this is not merely a conflict with Ukraine; it’s a confrontation with the West, and many in Moscow doubt the possibility of securing any enduring agreement with the US,” Soldatov conveyed to UJ.
Russia’s suspicion towards the United States has deep historical roots.
“It’s highly personal for them because they were all young KGB officers back then; they lost their social standing, their position within Russian society, and, as they now put it, their country, leaving them with a profound sense of humiliation,” Soldatov mentioned.
“They genuinely believe that the West has been intent on the total destruction and subjugation of Russia for centuries. This belief goes beyond mere propaganda; they sincerely hold this view.” Additionally, Putin has framed his strategy concerning Ukraine within his own summarized misinterpretation of history, which stretches back further than the Soviet era. He has frequently claimed that Ukraine is not a legitimate country and that Ukrainians are part of a broader “historical Russia.”
Experts argue that this assertion is, without question, erroneous.
“What Putin is referring to is the shared historical political ancestor known as Rus between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. However, it bears no resemblance to any contemporary nation. That entity existed in the early to late medieval period, and claiming Ukraine’s lack of a right to exist based on that shared ancestry — no nation resembles its 10th-century counterpart,” asserted Monica White, an associate professor in Russian and Slavonic Studies at the University of Nottingham.
In support of his strategy, Putin has also leaned on Russia’s religious identity, with Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, being one of the war’s most fervent proponents.
“Following the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia lost its connection to the ancestral Orthodox lands, and I believe part of Putin’s agenda is to reinstate that link between the 10th century Rus and the continuity of pure orthodoxy,” White explained. “What he is attempting is not dissimilar to efforts by some early Romanov Tsars to regain Orthodox territories previously under Ottoman or Catholic control, which they eventually did.”
Putin’s overwhelming ambition is to restore Russia’s standing on the global stage dramatically — by driving a wedge between Europe and the US, and allying with other adversaries of the West.
“Russia desires to have a seat at all significant discussions — thus, whatever unfolds next may not mandate territorial expansion in Europe, but it must ensure a leading position within a more influential bloc, potentially inclusive of China, Iran, or others — a bloc defined by a readiness to disrupt and destabilize,” White concluded.
Putin firmly believes that Russia, the world’s largest nation by area, should play a role in global governance. With Trump at the helm, he potentially has an ally; Trump has indicated that the foremost nations should get what they seek — be it Greenland, the Panama Canal, or portions of Ukraine.
“The critical point is that, from Trump’s perspective, Ukraine is essentially a bought and paid-for vassal state that must recognize its position and accept that the US will negotiate some form of agreement with Russia and then pass it on to Ukraine,” Galeotti remarked.
