The second term of U.S. President Donald Trump has sparked ideas of a far-right global alliance, yet his return to power has proven to be a complex development for European factions. Conflicting national interests over trade and territory are already evident on both sides of the Atlantic. Trump’s expansionist approach and transactional nature have unsettled Euroskeptics.
J.D. Vance’s address at the Munich Security Conference last Friday reinforced the notion that the worldview of the Trump administration aligns broadly with that of his European ideological counterparts. Both groups predominantly oppose Muslim immigration, resist pro-climate policies, and challenge the rights of the LGBTQ community.
Elon Musk, Trump’s billionaire associate, advisor, and the owner of X (formerly Twitter), is also enhancing the discourse and visibility of the far right in Europe. Recently, Musk livestreamed a conversation with Alice Weidel, the head of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, leading up to elections scheduled for late February. Furthermore, Musk has advocated for the release of imprisoned British far-right figure Stephen Yaxley-Lennon and even offered to assist with his legal expenses.
However, despite various commonalities, notable differences also exist. For instance, Trump’s imperialistic aspirations have perturbed not only centrist politicians but also those farther to the right.
“He is employing precisely the same justifications to assert control over Greenland as [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin has for his actions in Ukraine,” remarked former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen of the center-right Venstre party during an interview with Fareed Zakaria on UJ.
Trump’s threats to invade Greenland, a Danish protectorate and EU member, have provoked discontent from mainstream politicians as well as members of the populist far-right Danish People’s Party.
“Greenland has been part of the Danish kingdom for 800 years,” stated Anders Vistisen of the Danish People’s Party during remarks in late January at the European Parliament. “Let me put it plainly: Mr. Trump, leave us alone.”
Numerous other issues have made the European far right cautious about Trump’s approach, including his demand that NATO allies allocate at least 5 percent of their national GDPs to defense in return for continued U.S. involvement, as well as his uncertain stance on Ukraine.
Above all, Trump’s threats to impose blanket tariffs have alarmed Europeans across the political spectrum. He is attempting to sow division among Europeans as various far-right factions vie for his attention, viewing him as a potent advocate of the cultural conflicts they are waging. However, the prospect of tariffs reaching 25 percent on certain goods and countries complicates their ability to openly support Trump and sing his praises.
Should Trump execute his threat to impose tariffs on the 27-member EU bloc and other European nations—like the United Kingdom, which he has labeled “out of line”—he could wipe out billions in earnings. Some reports suggest that a 10 percent tariff on all European imports could reduce Europe’s GDP by up to 1.5 percent, equating to 260 billion euros ($270.3 billion), impacting various sectors including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and the food and beverage industry.
Many workers in Germany’s automotive and France’s agricultural sectors support their countries’ far-right parties and are likely to be adversely affected in this scenario. Both parties have gained significant ground among the working class as social services have diminished. If these parties were to align with Trump now, experts believe that would betray the disillusioned voters whose interests they claim to represent.
“Ultimately, raising tariffs would strain the economy—especially the manufacturing sector,” noted Zsuzsanna Vegh, a program officer at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “Far-right parties typically advocate for protecting the national economy. Measures perceived to negatively impact national economic players would be viewed unfavorably by the far-right base, and consequently by the corresponding parties.”
“If your stance is about protecting your country and its economy, then supporting Trump appears contradictory,” Vegh added.
Attendees at Trump’s inauguration ceremony included some European far-right figures. Éric Zemmour, a controversial former French presidential candidate known for promoting conspiracy theories, was invited, yet Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally party, was not.
Experts suggest that Le Pen has been attempting to distance herself from Trump. Her congratulatory note following his victory was tepid and emphasized “constructive dialogue and cooperation on the international stage,” interpreted by some as suggesting collaboration with Europe on matters of trade and tariffs.
Le Pen is focused on her goal of becoming France’s next president and requires support from even those who disapprove of Trump within her country. A poll conducted by Elabe last year indicated that 8 out of 10 French respondents viewed the new U.S. president unfavorably. This figure could grow, as even those who resonate with his anti-immigrant rhetoric, including many National Rally supporters, could suffer due to Trump’s tariffs.
Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s protégé, has indicated the necessity of considering winemakers and cheese producers who might be impacted by potential U.S. tariffs. “We can appreciate Trump’s patriotism without necessarily wishing for France to become a vassal of the U.S.,” he stated in an interview with France 2 in January.
Nicolas Lebourg, a French political scientist, suggested that the varied reactions from Zemmour and Le Pen showcase different facets of the European far right and the internal conflicts within it. He noted that while Le Pen emphasizes “the social and interventionist angle of the state” and shifts away from “the ethnic conception of nationality,” Zemmour adopts “this ethnicism” as he promotes the “great replacement theory”—a conspiracy claiming ethnic French and other white Western populations are being intentionally replaced by nonwhite immigrants, particularly Muslims.
Zemmour’s views—including his opposition to globalization as championed by multilateral institutions like NATO—are, according to Lebourg, more aligned with Trump’s. Meanwhile, Le Pen is adopting a more moderate stance within the far-right landscape, aligning more closely with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Trump has referred to Meloni as a “fantastic woman” who has made a significant impact in Europe. Nevertheless, even though the leader of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party appears to have a favorable relationship with him, it remains uncertain whether she will secure concessions from Trump regarding his defense spending demands or tariff threats. Italy currently allocates 1.5 percent of its national GDP to defense and plans to barely increase it to 2 percent by 2028, far short of Trump’s 5 percent expectation and equally fearful of his tariff threats.
According to a recent study by Italian news agency ANSA, a hypothetical 10 percent tariff on products imported to the United States could cost the Italian economy approximately 7 billion euros ($7.3 billion).
Leo Goretti, a foreign-policy expert at the Rome-based Institute of International Affairs, highlighted that Italy currently enjoys a favorable trade balance, exporting nearly 70 billion euros’ worth of goods to the United States while importing less than half that amount. “However, higher tariffs would pose a significant challenge for Italy,” he told Foreign Policy, “and achieving 5 percent defense spending is a considerable leap from our current position.”
Meloni was present at Trump’s inauguration, and her party has positioned her as the most suitable leader to mediate on Europe’s behalf, promoting what Goretti described as “a privileged relationship.”
Yet it remains uncertain whether this will benefit the EU or Italy. “The crucial issue is whether Meloni can secure some form of exemption for Italy,” Goretti noted.
Germany’s AfD confronts its own dilemmas. On one hand, the party has touted Musk’s endorsement before the elections; on the other, it opposes not only Trump’s tariffs but also desires to resume purchasing Russian gas, while Trump advocates for increased imports of U.S. liquified natural gas. The AfD has expressed intentions to restart the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which transport gas from Russia beneath the Baltic Sea.
The European far right is rife with Putin sympathizers, despite both Le Pen and Meloni adopting more moderate positions since the onset of the Ukraine invasion. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is an ally of Putin who once sought to facilitate a peaceful resolution to the conflict by opening Europe’s doors to him. However, he has had to retreat from this stance, as Trump has threatened Putin with consequences for not halting the “ridiculous war,” contrary to previous expectations of cutting off aid to Ukraine and coercing territorial concessions to Russia.
While Trump hasn’t provided any definitive assurances regarding Ukraine’s future, he has engaged with Putin on discussions to terminate the conflict. “We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, beginning with a conversation with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine to inform him of our discussions,” Trump posted. Meanwhile, Orban was forced to withdraw his threat to veto the extension of anti-Russian EU sanctions in light of Trump’s warning to Putin. Additionally, some experts suggest that Orban’s close ties with Beijing could frustrate Washington as Trump refocuses on the Asia-Pacific region.
There is a possibility that far-right factions in Europe will consolidate around Trump regarding other issues or utilize him to amplify domestic cultural wars. On February 8, various far-right leaders convened in Madrid under the banner “Make Europe Great Again,” with Orban once again praising Trump as a friend. “The Trump tornado,” he asserted, “has transformed the world in just a few weeks. An era has concluded. Today, it’s clear to everyone that we represent the future.”
Orban flatters Trump in an effort to play a significant global role and become the figurehead of the European far right, while others perceive that aligning with Trump and his prominent tech ally could enhance their electoral prospects and broader acceptance.
Trump may pursue a “divide and conquer” strategy toward Europe, according to Vegh of the German Marshall Fund. Even so, various far-right leaders in the region may respond differently, considering their domestic electoral needs. However, there is limited ideological coherence within the far-right framework—and on most issues, no unified vision.
Apart from their disdain for Islam and opposition to clean energy, these leaders share little in common with one another or with Trump. Moreover, European populists lack strategies to effectively address the real challenges that Trump could impose on the well-being of Europeans, forcing them to rely on mainstream approaches and tactics.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has expressed a willingness to enhance gas purchases from the United States, despite it already being the EU’s second-largest gas supplier. In November, she stated that the EU should reduce its imports of Russian gas by substituting them with U.S. LNG, which is “cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices.”
This transactional approach may be the best avenue for resolving Europe’s challenges with Trump. When asked in late January how the EU could evade tariffs, Trump responded: “The one thing they can quickly do is purchase our oil and gas.”
