WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump, the real estate mogul who transitioned into the role of commander in chief, is showcasing his diplomatic style in the initial weeks of his new term: it resembles a high-stakes business negotiation, with his primary objective being to emerge victorious from each encounter.
The strategies are evident in his emerging trade conflict with Canada and Mexico, his handling of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and even in his choice of the first nation to visit during his second term.
“President Trump engages in diplomacy with a distinct transactional approach where economics is the cornerstone of international relations,” retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the president’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, noted at a recent event in Washington.
For Trump, the emphasis lies on leverage rather than camaraderie; monetary gains as much as principles; and hard power over soft.
This is more than just a unique negotiating style. The implications affect the post-World War II international framework as Trump’s maneuvers cast doubts on American global leadership.
He is crafting a foreign policy that is inward-focused and attentive to financial outcomes, dismissing American soft-power tools like the U.S. Agency for International Development as questionable and full of inefficiencies while suggesting that the U.S. may not defend NATO allies that fail to meet the alliance’s defense spending goals.
While politics and presidencies operate on some level of transactions, Trump, having established himself as a prominent figure in real estate through his image as a bold dealmaker, is elevating this approach as he navigates a more complex global landscape.
The Republican president, in his previous life as a real estate magnate, regarded every deal as one with distinct winners and losers. Upon his return to the White House, he is overtly applying a what’s-in-it-for-me mindset to his interactions with both allies and adversaries.
Money speaks volumes
Edward Frantz, a historian from the University of Indianapolis who has studied the American presidency, remarked that Trump’s “ledger” approach may not be the most effective method for conducting diplomacy.
Frantz pointed out that Trump, 78, a baby boomer and football enthusiast, seems to draw inspiration for his foreign policy from the ethos of the legendary pro football coach Vince Lombardi, who famously asserted, “Winning isn’t everything. It’s the only thing.”
“However, diplomacy, especially in an increasingly complex world, might be more akin to soccer,” Frantz noted. “Sometimes, a draw will suffice. Sometimes, just surviving and moving forward is necessary.”
On Thursday, Trump informed reporters that he has selected Saudi Arabia as the first international stop of his new term due to the kingdom’s commitment to invest significantly in the United States over the next four years.
“They’ve become wealthier, and we’ve all aged. So I said, ‘I’ll go if you invest a trillion dollars, $1 trillion to American companies,’” Trump declared. He also made Saudi Arabia his first international stop during his initial term after the Saudis pledged $450 billion in U.S. investments.
While acknowledging that traditionally, the United Kingdom, one of America’s oldest allies, is a typical first visit for U.S. presidents, he emphasized that money talks.
Understanding who holds ‘the cards’ is vital to Trump
In his interactions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump has fixated on who possesses leverage. He has repeatedly asserted that Putin holds “the cards” while Zelenskyy does not.
Zelenskyy appeared to be making progress in mending ties with Trump after a previously tense meeting in the Oval Office concluded with Trump and Vice President JD Vance chastising the Ukrainian leader for perceived insufficient gratitude for the billions of dollars in U.S. assistance provided since Russia’s invasion.
Zelenskyy later described the meeting as “regrettable.” He also indicated his willingness to finalize a minerals agreement with the U.S. — even without the explicit American security guarantees that the Ukrainians were seeking — which Trump desires.
During his Tuesday address to a joint session of Congress, Trump recognized Zelenskyy’s efforts to rebuild relations. Trump furthermore announced plans to dispatch senior advisers to Saudi Arabia this week for discussions with Ukrainian officials.
However, Trump quickly reverted to criticizing Zelenskyy, stating he lacks the leverage necessary to continue the fight against Russia.
“Frankly, I am finding it increasingly challenging to engage with Ukraine, and they don’t have the cards,” Trump stated. “In terms of achieving a final agreement, dealing with Russia may be easier, which is surprising, as they hold all the cards.”
Trump diverges from long-standing U.S. skepticism toward Russia
Trump’s insistence on Zelenskyy — and his shift towards Moscow — signifies a considerable departure from the conventional approach of U.S. foreign policy toward Russia since the Cold War.
Previous leaders, including Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama, have attempted resets with Russia, but perhaps never at such a tense time. Deep-seated skepticism toward Moscow has been the established stance in both Republican and Democratic administrations even during favorable moments in bilateral relations.
Conversely, Trump, who campaigned on a promise to swiftly conclude the war, has diverged from Democratic President Joe Biden’s strategy of refraining from making significant decisions that could affect Ukraine without consulting Kyiv.
Simultaneously, the new Republican administration has initiated measures toward a more collaborative stance with Putin, a leader Trump has long respected.
Trump has paused U.S. military aid and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv, stopped offensive cyberoperations against Russia conducted by U.S. Cyber Command, and terminated a program aimed at seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs as retribution for the Kremlin’s invasion.
Monitoring the financial ledger
Kellogg, who also served in Trump’s prior administration, recalled witnessing Trump’s “transactional diplomacy approach” early on in his first term. Kellogg noted that the president’s first inquiry during meetings with foreign leaders typically revolved around the same issue.
“I remember the very first time we had a foreign official in the Cabinet room, the first thing he asked was, ‘What’s the trade imbalance between our two countries?’” Kellogg recounted at a Council on Foreign Relations event.
The trade ledger has been a prominent concern for Trump as he contends that the U.S. has been taken advantage of by both friends and foes, including its neighbors Canada and Mexico.
Last week, Trump announced 25% tariffs on numerous imports from Mexico and certain imports from Canada amidst significant anxiety regarding the economic repercussions of a wider trade war. He subsequently postponed most of these tariffs.
The White House maintains that the impending tariffs are aimed at curtailing the smuggling of fentanyl. At times, Trump has suggested that resolving the tariffs may hinge on addressing the trade deficit.
On Friday, Trump resumed his critique of Canada, lamenting policies he claimed have adversely affected American dairy farmers and the lumber sector. He stated he would soon act to balance the ledger with Canada through reciprocal tariffs.
“Canada has been taking advantage of us for years regarding lumber and dairy products,” Trump stated.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom Trump has often derided as the leader of America’s 51st state, asserted that his country would not capitulate in Trump’s trade war.
This situation highlighted Trump’s readiness to resort to hard power to resolve disputes, even if it means challenging one of the world’s most enduring and friendly alliances.
Trudeau, politically aligned with the center-left, found Trump’s actions so perplexing that he resorted to quoting the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial page, emphasizing that this conflict was unwarranted.
“It’s not typical for me to align with the Wall Street Journal,” Trudeau expressed. “But Donald, they point out that despite your considerable intelligence, this is an exceedingly unwise course of action.”
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AP White House correspondent Zeke Miller contributed to this report.
