In the three weeks following President Donald Trump’s inauguration, Americans have observed a surge in arrests and deportations.
However, the president is beginning to face the challenging reality of limited resources, leading to concerns about whether this administration can sustain this momentum.
The pace of deportations is proving too sluggish for Trump, prompting him to increase pressure on the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and his advisors to accelerate deportations, sources informed NBC News.
While Trump initially displayed confidence in his immigration enforcement operations, by late Tuesday, the top two officials in ICE’s enforcement division had been demoted, which officials confirmed to NBC News. The Washington Post first reported these demotions.
How many individuals have been arrested and detained?
ICE did not respond to inquiries regarding the most recent immigration enforcement statistics. They also declined to comment on the speed of arrests and the costs associated with these operations.
DHS posted on X, stating that as of February 3, their agents had taken 8,768 individuals into custody.
In January, ICE acting Director Caleb Vitello instructed agents to aim for 1,200 to 1,400 arrests per day.
On January 27, ICE made 1,179 arrests, according to data obtained by NBC News. However, this number dropped to just 300 during the first weekend of February, as reported by a source.
Arrests have been occurring in several major cities, including New York, Chicago, and Denver, with support from personnel from other agencies.
Trump may further bolster manpower by enlisting IRS agents to investigate employers of individuals working illegally in the U.S. Currently, personnel from the FBI; the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives; the Drug Enforcement Administration; and the U.S. Marshals Service are already assisting the deportation efforts.
However, ICE officials have informed lawmakers that they may be lacking the necessary resources to implement Trump’s ambitious plans. Senator Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., chair of the Senate Budget Committee, indicated that Trump’s border czar Tom Homan and budget director Russell Vought requested additional funding from Senate lawmakers during a meeting this week.
“While there is a mass deportation effort in terms of rhetoric, there has been no change in resources for the involved agencies,” said Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, an associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. “ICE is operating within the same budget it had on January 19.” (Trump’s inauguration was January 20.)
How many individuals have been deported?
As of February 3, there were 5,693 deportations, according to the DHS post on X. It’s unclear whether this number includes everyone returned to their home countries or only those who were sent back to Mexico across the border.
Sources have told NBC News that ICE spent an average of about $10,500 to deport a single individual during the Biden administration, accounting for arrest, detention, and flight costs.
The administration had sufficient capacity to accommodate 41,500 detainees at any moment across 106 facilities nationwide, at an annual cost of $57,378 per bed. NBC News previously reported that the Trump administration intends to open new detention centers and is preparing to resume detaining families.
Meanwhile, the administration is removing deportation protections for certain individuals, thereby increasing the number of people who might be arrested and subsequently detained. For instance, approximately 350,000 Venezuelans are set to lose their Temporary Protected Status in April.
Trump has suggested using Guantánamo Bay to detain around 30,000 migrants. Last Tuesday, the administration executed its initial flight of detainees to the U.S. naval base, where foreigners captured post-September 11 attacks have been held. An auxiliary migrant center also exists at the base for individuals intercepted at sea. A senior DHS official informed NBC News on Thursday that there are currently 112 immigrants detained at Guantánamo Bay.
Confronted with space constraints and court rulings limiting detention periods, the administration is releasing some of those they have arrested. They continue to monitor these individuals through detention alternatives, like ankle monitors, and require them to check in with immigration officials.
On February 6, the White House confirmed that 461 individuals had been released.
Two New York attorneys informed NBC News that some immigrant clients currently in such monitoring programs have been instructed by ICE to report sooner than scheduled, resulting in their detention and deportation upon arrival.
Further, the administration has reinstated some previously closed deportation pathways.
Deportees have included individuals from Venezuela, which had not accepted its citizens back for many years. Trump dispatched an envoy to meet with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who agreed to accept citizens deported from the U.S. Two Venezuelan planes returned approximately 190 individuals on Monday.
Following visits from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Guatemala and El Salvador agreed to accept additional deportees, including from other nations. The administration has also deported nearly 120 Asian migrants of various nationalities to Panama as part of a deal with the country’s president.
Tom Cartwright, a former finance executive who has tracked deportation flights voluntarily since 2000, noted that the military flights, ICE Air flights, and international flights have complicated the monitoring of deportations. ICE does not provide tracking data. Cartwright relies on publicly accessible information in conjunction with a network of observers and sources to follow flights and track deported individuals.
So far, deportation flights have not surpassed usual volumes, according to Cartwright, who tracks these activities for Witness at the Border, an immigrant advocacy group.
Cartwright’s report indicated that from January 24 to January 31—days following Trump’s presidency—the Air Force conducted eight deportation flights using C-17 cargo planes. Furthermore, two additional flights intended to take deportees to Colombia were denied landing.
In total, January saw 109 deportation flights, with 65 prior to inauguration and 44 afterward, including the eight military flights, based on Cartwright’s tracking.
To compare flight activity over time, Cartwright tallies the number of flights that occur on non-holiday weekdays. In January before the inauguration, the average number of flights per non-holiday weekday was five, which slightly dipped to 4.9 after the inauguration. From early February to February 8, the count increased to about six per non-holiday weekday, but still remains “within a very normal range,” he stated.
“The bottom line is that the military planes are not significantly increasing deportation rates compared to previous patterns. In my view, they are merely being deployed for show in the worst possible way,” Cartwright expressed.
Trump pledged in January to continue utilizing military jets, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt asserted that their deployment sends a strong and clear message: “If you illegally enter the United States of America, you will face severe consequences.”
What is the cost implication?
Republicans in Congress are working to secure billions for the administration to cover costs related to its mass deportation initiative. The president has stated his intention to deport “millions and millions” of individuals; achieving 1 million deportations within a year would necessitate deporting approximately 2,700 individuals daily.
In budget proposals, Senate Republicans have suggested allocating $175 billion for border security, while the House GOP is advocating for $110 billion designated for immigration and border security. These figures are preliminary and represent what could be a lengthy negotiation process.
“We’re not constructing a wall, folks; we’re hitting a wall,” Graham remarked on Tuesday. “They require funding, and they require it now.”
Before taking office, Trump told NBC News that financial considerations were irrelevant in executing his mass deportation strategy.
“It’s not a matter of a price tag,” he stated in a November interview. “It’s not — truly, we have no alternative.”
An analysis of the potential costs to taxpayers associated with the arrests and deportations is still forthcoming. The administration is contemplating reallocating funds from other agencies, such as the Transportation Security Administration, to address a $230 million deficit that ICE faced at the outset of the administration, according to NBC News.
During a 2023 budget hearing, the acting ICE Director noted that deportation flights incur a cost of $17,000 per hour for 135 deportees, typically lasting about five hours, as reported by Reuters.
Previous administrations have prioritized which individuals to arrest, detain, and deport, partly due to resource limitations.
ICE’s budget for the 2024 fiscal year hovers around $9.4 billion, according to Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Texas Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee.
How the expenses associated with mass deportation will be covered “depends on how the majority (in Congress) intends to approach this,” stated Cuellar, who frequently supports increased funding for border security and immigration enforcement.
“It’s either a matter of cutting funding elsewhere or raising revenues,” he added, “and I believe the majority will likely focus on cutting elsewhere unless they intend to increase the deficit.”
