Trump’s Pursuit of Regime Change in Ukraine Has Only Strengthened Zelensky

The discussion surrounding Ukraine’s elections and prospective leadership is escalating. As peace talks gain traction, the demand for elections is increasing, with both Russia and the U.S. expressing doubts about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ironically, the criticism from both the Kremlin and the White House has bolstered his standing.

For several months, Zelensky’s approval ratings, which have traditionally been high, came under strain due to military challenges, internal conflicts, and governance issues. However, that dynamic shifted rapidly. Recent surveys reveal a significant surge in his approval ratings, driven by Ukraine’s widening gap with the United States, leading to a strong rally-around-the-flag sentiment.

When U.S. President Donald Trump portrayed Zelensky as an impediment to his “instant peace” initiative, the Ukrainian president emerged as a political martyr, depicted as a leader confronting a powerful adversary demanding concessions. Historical trends indicate that Ukrainian political survival thrives on defiance rather than compliance.

Zelensky is not navigating this landscape alone. French President Emmanuel Macron has sharpened his image as a formidable European leader by countering Trump’s America-first approach. In Canada, the ruling Liberal Party witnessed a 15% increase as Trump launched his campaign of threats and tariffs. Even U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has utilized his role as a “bridge to Washington” to strengthen his leadership. Politicians throughout the West are experiencing their own “Love Actually” moments, courtesy of Trump’s confrontational posture.

However, Zelensky is not merely adopting a stance — he is actively resisting U.S. pressure to acquiesce to terms that would diminish Ukraine’s standing. This defiance has transformed him from a leader facing pressing re-election challenges into a person once again viewed as crucial.

Trump desires Zelensky’s removal, yet he faces a fundamental dilemma: who would be the U.S.’s ideal candidate? The notion that Washington could simply appoint a pro-American successor misconstrues Ukraine’s political environment — a miscalculation Russia has repeatedly made.

The most likely alternative is Yulia Tymoshenko, who has sustained political relevance through decades of reinvention. However, despite her long-standing presence, Tymoshenko has never secured a presidential victory, and her appeal increasingly resonates only with specific voter segments. Should Washington support her, it would be backing a precarious prospect.

Another name circulating in speculation concerning private dialogues with the Trump administration is former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky’s chief political adversary. Similar to Tymoshenko, Poroshenko is a stalwart in Ukrainian politics — a veteran figure with a significant negative rating. His presidency was marked by division, and while he retains some influence, his likelihood of reclaiming the presidency is minimal. His divisive legacy makes him an improbable candidate for unification with little chance of gaining a national mandate.

This leads to former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the current Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.K., Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who is frequently mentioned in speculations. However, suggesting that Zaluzhnyi could emerge as a pro-American candidate ignores the nature of his role. His primary allegiance lies with Ukraine’s military, not with any foreign political agenda. Closer alignment with U.S. expectations — particularly those seen as capitulatory — could alienate the Ukrainian electorate and could even be perceived as treason by former military comrades.

While Zelensky faces critique regarding his domestic policies and appointments, in foreign policy, he embodies the aspirations of the Ukrainian populace. His resolute stance earns him their confidence. Certainly, an alternative negotiator could be appointed, but they would lack the legitimacy and generally uphold the same stance.

If a leader were to concede to Russian demands, historical evidence suggests they would not endure for long. Ukraine has a long-standing tradition of ousting leaders who serve Russian interests (consider the Orange Revolution and the Revolution of Dignity). Any agreement would need not just the president’s endorsement; it would require the support of the Ukrainian people.

Moreover, it would necessitate the acceptance of Ukraine’s military — one million men and women who have sacrificed extensively and are unlikely to take orders from a Trump-selected figurehead. If Washington believes it can place a leader in power who instructs them to disarm, why would they heed such demands? Why wouldn’t they instead turn their weapons (and advanced Western tanks) toward them? The assumption that Ukraine’s war can be resolved merely through a reshuffling of its leadership is, at best, naive and, at worst, a formula for profound disorder.

The irony lies in the fact that those most determined to see Zelensky replaced — be it in Washington or Moscow — may have inadvertently secured his ongoing leadership. Efforts to marginalize him and depict him as an impediment to negotiations have only reinforced his status. Just as historical external pressures have stimulated Ukrainian resistance, they have also fortified Zelensky’s position at the forefront. With no credible pro-American alternative and no serious internal challengers emerging, the Ukrainian president appears set to retain his role for the foreseeable future.

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily align with those of the Kyiv Independent.

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