For over a decade, tensions between the West and the East have resurged, commonly referred to as a new cold war. However, with President Trump’s return to office, it appears that America may be shifting allegiances.
Even as American and Russian negotiators convened on Tuesday for their first discussions since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, Mr. Trump indicated that he might be willing to forsake America’s allies to collaborate with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
In Mr. Trump’s perspective, Russia bears no blame for the war that has ravaged its neighbor; instead, he asserts that Ukraine is at fault for the invasion. Listening to Mr. Trump speak with reporters on Tuesday about the conflict presented a version of events that would be unrecognizable to those in Ukraine, and certainly unheard from any prior American president from either major party.
According to Mr. Trump, Ukrainian leaders are to blame for not agreeing to cede territory, suggesting they therefore don’t merit a role in the peace talks he has initiated with Mr. Putin. “You should have never started it,” Mr. Trump remarked, addressing Ukrainian leaders who did not provoke it. “You could have made a deal.”
While speaking at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, he remarked: “You have a leadership now that’s allowed a war to go on that should have never even happened.” In stark contrast, he offered no criticism of Mr. Putin or Russia, which first invaded Ukraine in 2014, maintained a low-intensity conflict throughout Mr. Trump’s first term, and launched a full invasion in 2022 with ambitions of complete occupation.
Mr. Trump is currently orchestrating one of the most striking shifts in American foreign policy seen in generations, a complete reversal that will require allies and adversaries alike to readjust significantly. Historically, a succession of American presidents have viewed both the Soviet Union and subsequently Russia as forces to be cautious of, at a minimum. Mr. Trump, however, seems to regard Russia as a potential partner in future cooperative ventures.
He makes it clear that the United States is no longer interested in isolating Mr. Putin for his unjustified aggression towards a weaker neighbor and the killing of countless individuals. Instead, Mr. Trump, who has consistently expressed an unusual admiration for Mr. Putin, seeks to reintegrate Russia into the international fold, positioning it as one of America’s closest allies.
“It’s a disgraceful reversal of 80 years of American foreign policy,” stated Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and a former national security aide to President George W. Bush.
“Throughout the Cold War, the U.S. refused to legitimize Soviet conquests of the Baltic States, encouraging those who fought for their freedom,” she continued. “Now we are legitimizing aggression to carve out spheres of influence. Every American president in the past 80 years would oppose President Trump’s views.”
Within Mr. Trump’s circle, this pivot is regarded as a necessary correction to years of misguided policy. He and his supporters consider the cost of defending Europe too high relative to other priorities. They believe that reaching some form of compromise with Moscow would enable the United States to withdraw more troops or redirect national security resources toward countering China, which they deem “the greatest threat,” as Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated last month.
The U.S. shift has certainly become more evident over the past week. Just days after Vice President JD Vance criticized European allies by claiming “the threat from within” was a more pressing concern than Russia, Mr. Rubio met with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, expressing enthusiasm for “the incredible opportunities that could arise from a partnership with the Russians” if the Ukraine conflict could just be resolved.
Notably, no Ukrainian leaders were present at this meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, nor were representatives from other European nations; although Mr. Rubio did call several foreign ministers afterward to inform them of the meeting’s outcomes. Visually, this meeting appeared to be a negotiation between two significant powers divvying up spheres of influence, reminiscent of a modern-day Congress of Vienna or Yalta Conference.
Mr. Trump has long perceived Mr. Putin as a kindred spirit, a strong and “very savvy” leader whose attempts to compel Ukraine into territorial concessions he labeled as nothing short of “genius.” In his view, Mr. Putin is worthy of admiration and respect, contrasting sharply with his disdain for leaders of traditional U.S. allies like Germany, Canada, or France.
Indeed, during the initial month of his second term, Mr. Trump has been slighting allies, excluding them from the nascent Ukraine negotiations, while also imposing threats of tariffs and demanding they boost their military spending, even asserting claims over certain territories. His billionaire supporter Elon Musk has publicly endorsed the far-right Alternative for Germany party.
“At the moment, Europeans view this as Trump normalizing relations with Russia while treating them, his allies, as unreliable partners,” pointed out Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, an international consulting firm. “Supporting the AfD, regarded by German leaders as a neo-Nazi party, positions Trump as adversarial to Europe’s largest economy. It’s an extraordinary change.”
Mr. Trump pledged during his campaign to conclude the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, a commitment he has not fulfilled, having hoped to achieve peace even before assuming office — which also went unfulfilled. After a nearly 90-minute phone call with Mr. Putin last week, he tasked Mr. Rubio and two other advisors, Michael Waltz and Steve Witkoff, with pursuing negotiations.
The concessions Mr. Trump and his associates have proposed echo a Kremlin wishlist: Russia maintains all the Ukrainian territory it has unlawfully seized. The U.S. will refrain from providing Ukraine with security guarantees, let alone allowing it into NATO. Sanctions will be lifted, and the president has even floated the idea of reinstating Russia into the Group of 7 major economies after its expulsion due to the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
What concessions would Mr. Putin need to make for a deal? He would need to cease the killing of Ukrainians while he celebrates his gains. Mr. Trump has not detailed other concessions he would demand. Nor has he addressed how trust could be established with Mr. Putin given that he disregarded a 1994 agreement ensuring Ukrainian sovereignty, as well as two ceasefire agreements brokered in Minsk, Belarus, in 2014 and 2015.
Mr. Trump’s apparent confidence in his ability to negotiate a deal with Mr. Putin puzzles seasoned national security officials who have dealt with Russia over the years.
“We should engage with them in the same manner we did with Soviet leaders during the Cold War,” stated Celeste A. Wallander, who managed Russia and Ukraine issues while serving as assistant secretary of defense under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “That is, with a foundation of distrust.”
“During negotiations,” she added, “the expectation should be that they will breach agreements. You seek mutual interests but acknowledge that our objectives often contradict, and that we are handling a dangerous adversary, not forging a friendship.”
When speaking with reporters on Tuesday, Mr. Trump made it seem as though he viewed Russia as a friend, but not Ukraine. “Russia wants to do something,” he claimed. “They wish to end the savage barbarism.”
Mr. Trump expressed sorrow over the death and devastation caused by what he called a “senseless war,” likening the scenes from the battlefield to the Battle of Gettysburg with “body parts scattered everywhere.” He remarked that Ukraine was “being wiped out” and emphasized that the war must conclude. However, he did not specify who was responsible for this destruction, suggesting his blame lay with Ukraine’s leaders while dismissing their demand for a place at the negotiation table.
“I hear they’re upset about not having a seat,” Mr. Trump stated. “Well, they’ve had a seat for three years now. And long before that. This could have been resolved quite easily. Even a novice negotiator could have settled this years ago without, I think, the loss of much territory, very little territory. Without the loss of any lives. And without cities crumbling to ruin.”
He reiterated his assertion that the invasion would not have transpired had he been president, overlooking the fact that Russian-supported forces had been engaging in warfare within Ukraine throughout his first term. “I could have orchestrated a deal for Ukraine that would have granted them nearly all of their territory,” he said, failing to clarify why he didn’t pursue peace negotiations while in office.
As is common, Mr. Trump peppered his statements with numerous inaccuracies. He claimed that the U.S. has provided three times more aid to Ukraine since the onset of the war compared to Europe. In reality, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe has committed $138 billion compared to $119 billion from the U.S.
He also criticized President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, repeatedly stating that “he’s down to a 4 percent approval rating.” In truth, while Mr. Zelensky’s support has diminished from previously high levels, it currently stands around 50 percent — a figure not too dissimilar from Mr. Trump’s own approval ratings.
Mr. Trump also aligned himself with a Russian perspective that Ukraine should hold new elections to participate in negotiations. “Yes, I would suggest that when they want a seat at the table, they should consider that the people ought to — wouldn’t the people of Ukraine want to have elections, given how long it’s been since the last one?” he said. “That’s not a Russia idea. It’s a notion that I and many other countries also have.”
However, he did not specify which other countries share this view, nor did he mention the necessity for elections in Russia, where any electoral processes are closely controlled by the Kremlin and its affiliates.
Mr. Trump’s comments were unscripted and responded to inquiries from reporters. They showcased his understanding of the situation and anticipated developments over the coming months, sending fresh shockwaves throughout Europe, which is now reconciling the reality that its primary ally in this renewed cold war no longer perceives itself in that way.
“Some of the most disgraceful remarks made by a president during my lifetime,” expressed Ian Bond, deputy director of the Center for European Reform in London, online. “Trump is siding with the aggressor while blaming the victim. The Kremlin must be ecstatic.”
