The proposal by United States President Donald Trump to negotiate with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin regarding Ukraine, along with his administration’s fresh perspective on transatlantic relations, has raised alarms among European leaders.
On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened a meeting with a delegation from Russia, headed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, aiming to find a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.
This discussion, taking place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, follows Trump’s conversation with Putin last week, during which they agreed to initiate peace talks to resolve the three-year-long conflict without involving European partners. Trump mentioned the possibility of a meeting with Putin in Saudi Arabia.
The situation has prompted apprehension among European officials and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who emphasized that any agreement reached without Kyiv’s participation would not be acknowledged.
“No decisions regarding Ukraine should be made without Ukraine… Europe must have a role in discussions about its own affairs,” Zelenskyy stated at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend.
What are the implications of the Trump administration’s new strategy, and how might Europe react to these developments?
What’s on the agenda at US-Russia talks in Riyadh?
Rubio, together with National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, has engaged in discussions with the Russian delegation led by Lavrov.
The talks aim not only to mend the strained ties between Washington and Moscow but also to potentially set the stage for a future meeting between Trump and Putin. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov informed reporters that the discussions would focus “primarily on reviving the full spectrum of Russian-American relations”.
“The world is waiting with bated breath as the meeting of these high-ranking officials in Riyadh has begun,” reported Al Jazeera’s Yulia Shapovalova, noting that no significant breakthroughs are anticipated.
“The resolution of the Ukraine situation, along with enhancing Russia-US bilateral relations – which are at a historic low – is on the agenda,” she added from Moscow.
Why are Europe and Ukraine concerned about not being invited to the Riyadh summit?
Zelenskyy, currently in the United Arab Emirates, reiterated his stance that he would not accept any agreements made between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine.
European leaders also voiced their concerns regarding their exclusion from the negotiations, insisting on their need for involvement.
“A dictated peace will never gain our support,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remarked over the weekend following Trump’s unilateral outreach to Putin.
Trump subsequently assured reporters that Zelenskyy would have a role in the negotiations, albeit without further clarification. Keith Kellogg, the US envoy for Ukraine, attempted to reassure that no agreements would be imposed on Ukraine.
Kellogg is currently on a three-day visit to Kyiv.
Kyiv, having lost nearly 20 percent of its territory and thousands of lives, desires a deal that adequately addresses its security needs.
“We are seeking a robust and enduring peace in Ukraine. For this to be realized, Russia must cease its aggression, which must be accompanied by credible security guarantees for Ukraine,” stated French President Emmanuel Macron on X, a day after hosting European leaders in Paris.
European leaders are apprehensive “because neither Ukraine nor Europe is represented. They worry Trump could compromise Ukraine’s interests,” remarked Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, during an interview with Al Jazeera.
“Concerns arise of a situation reminiscent of Trump’s stance on Gaza – he appears indifferent,” Ash observed, referencing Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza after the displacement of Palestinians, an initiative that would be viewed as ethnic cleansing and a war crime.
How are European leaders responding to Trump’s policy shift on Ukraine and transatlantic ties?
European leaders have been left racing to formulate responses after the new Trump administration disrupted the established US Ukraine policy from the past three years and introduced measures that could alter the dynamics of the transatlantic alliance built since 1949.
On Sunday, Kellogg, Trump’s envoy for Ukraine, confirmed that Europe would not participate in the negotiations regarding peace in Ukraine. Last week, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Ukraine’s NATO membership was “unrealistic”.
Reflecting Trump’s rhetoric that Europe must increase its NATO spending, Hegseth indicated that European nations should enhance their financial and military commitments in Ukraine. He also dismissed the idea of deploying US troops to Ukraine after a deal is struck with Russia. US Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment, urging Brussels to “significantly enhance” its own defense capabilities.
Reacting to the tone and messaging from Trump’s senior advisors, European leaders convened in Paris on Monday to strategize their next actions. Macron was joined by other leaders from Germany, Denmark, Poland, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, along with officials from NATO and the European Union.
“Ready and willing,” NATO chief Mark Rutte posted on X on Monday.
In recent years, European nations have increased their aid to Kyiv, providing nearly $140 billion, which surpasses the approximately $120 billion spent by the US since the war’s onset in February 2022.
According to Ash from Chatham House, Europe is “coming to the realization that the US is an unreliable partner,” interpreting Trump’s overture to Putin as a potential betrayal from a key ally.
Europe’s primary concern is the threat of Russian aggression extending beyond Ukraine, given that Washington has historically served as Europe’s security guarantor within the NATO framework. However, Trump has urged Europe to enhance its own security responsibilities. Reports indicate that the US may withdraw some of its troops from Europe.
In 2014, NATO member nations committed to contributing at least two percent of their GDP to defense, yet more than a decade later, only 23 out of 32 members have fulfilled this commitment. Trump is advocating for raising defense spending to five percent of GDP.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed on X on Monday that “we need a surge in defense in Europe.”
The transatlantic divide is further intensified as Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Europe, decrying the economic relationship with the European Union as “an atrocity.”
In response, European leaders have stated they would retaliate should Trump initiate a trade war. Trump has already imposed steep tariffs on several nations, including China.
Can Europe provide security guarantees to Ukraine?
Last week, European sources indicated that Washington had disseminated a questionnaire among European leaders, inquiring about their potential contributions regarding security guarantees for Ukraine. However, Al Jazeera has not reviewed the questionnaire.
The Trump administration seeks to position Europe at the forefront of maintaining security in Kyiv, as the US diverts its focus to other priorities, including border security.
Anatol Lieven, the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that there are critical issues that only Washington and Moscow can resolve.
“This includes NATO membership, as it is NATO, led by the US, that can invite new members,” he noted.
However, Lieven clarified, “Regarding Ukraine’s reconstruction and its accession to the European Union, those decisions lie with the Ukrainians and Europeans.”
During the Paris meeting, European leaders failed to reach a consensus on whether to send troops to Ukraine following any peace accord.
“No substantial progress has been apparent from the public statements following the Paris discussions, indicating that Europe is not closer to proposing, much less implementing, any solutions,” asserted Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, in an interview with Al Jazeera.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has suggested the possibility of deploying British troops to Ukraine, potentially alongside Sweden. In contrast, German Chancellor Scholz labeled the discussion about troop deployment “completely premature”.
Giles added that in contemplating troop deployment to Ukraine, “Europe’s military leaders are either too cautious, as seen with Germany, or they recognize that this risks their own security, as Finland does.”
This situation raises questions about how such a force would be formed and sourced.
“Despite Scholz deeming this conversation premature, it is necessary to discuss it to clarify Europe’s objectives,” Giles stated to Al Jazeera.
