Verifying Donald Trump’s Statements on the Ukraine War

US President Donald Trump has seemingly attributed the ongoing conflict with Russia to Ukraine, making various statements from his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.

Trump spoke to the media, bringing up topics related to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s level of support and noting Ukraine’s postponement of elections under martial law.

His remarks—some reflecting prevalent Russian narratives about the war—surfaced shortly after US representatives initiated discussions with a Russian team in Riyadh aimed at resolving the conflict, which has been ongoing for nearly three years.

In response, Zelensky accused Trump of existing within a “disinformation bubble” created by Russia.

BBC Verify has investigated Trump’s assertions.

Ukrainian officials expressed discontent over their exclusion from Tuesday’s negotiations in Riyadh. However, Trump waved off these grievances, asserting that Ukraine had three years to resolve the war and seemed to hold Kyiv accountable for igniting the conflict.

“You should have never started it,” he remarked. The Kremlin has accused Ukraine in the past of initiating the war against Russia.

“It was they who started the war in 2014. Our aim is to stop this war. And we did not start this war in 2022,” Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in an interview with US talk show host Tucker Carlson in February 2024.

In truth, Ukraine did not instigate the conflict. Russia commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, following its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The annexation occurred after popular demonstrations ousted Ukraine’s pro-Russian president.

Russia supported proxy forces that seized regions in eastern Ukraine, accusing the new government in Kyiv of discriminatory actions against Russian speakers, claims which the International Court of Justice has dismissed.

Following the collapse of attempts to resolve the post-2014 conflict, Russia began a significant troop buildup along its border with Ukraine in late 2021.

Putin initiated the invasion on 24 February 2022, claiming that the operation’s purpose was to “demilitarise and denazify” the West-leaning government of Volodymyr Zelensky and prevent the nation from joining NATO.

In Ukraine’s previous parliamentary elections, support for far-right candidates was at just 2%. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that Zelensky is Jewish, and his political party is viewed as centrist.

Although NATO officials acknowledged in 2021 that Ukraine was a potential candidate for future membership, there was no formal entry process in place at that time.

Trump also asserted that Zelensky’s approval rating had dropped to 4%.

It is unclear what evidence the president was referencing, as he did not specify a source. We have reached out to the White House for clarification.

A recent survey indicated that 57% of Ukrainians expressed trust in the president, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

This figure, however, reflects a decline from 77% at the end of 2023 and 90% in May 2022, suggesting that the president’s popularity has waned.

Additional polls imply that Zelensky is lagging behind his closest competitor, former army chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, in the initial round of any upcoming election, suggesting they might meet in a runoff.

Official polling is limited, and measuring public opinion accurately in times of war proves to be incredibly challenging. Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, and around one-fifth is under Russian occupation.

Following Trump’s statements, various major Russian media outlets echoed his assertion, citing a survey conducted by Ukrainian MP and critic of Zelensky, Oleksandr Dubinsky, on Telegram, which they claimed supported Trump’s evaluation.

Dubinsky has been charged with treason in Ukraine and accused of “operating under Russian intelligence directives,” allegations he denies.

Trump pointed out that Ukraine has not conducted a presidential election since 2019, when Zelensky—a former comedian without a political base—was elected.

Zelensky’s five-year term was supposed to conclude in May 2024. However, due to the martial law instituted following the Russian invasion in February 2022, elections have been postponed.

This martial law was established in 2015 following Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, well before Zelensky and his party took power.

In November, all political parties in Ukraine’s legislature agreed to delay elections until the conflict subsides, a stance that appears to resonate with the public.

A survey indicated that 60% of respondents opposed holding elections to replace Zelensky during wartime, according to a poll conducted by the International Republican Institute in September and October.

Zelensky has pledged to organize new elections once the war concludes, but has not confirmed whether he intends to run again. Observers have noted that conducting elections in Ukraine before the hostilities cease would be nearly impossible, given the ongoing Russian assaults and the displacement of millions of citizens.

Trump’s remarks on this issue followed closely after the Kremlin questioned Zelensky’s legitimacy due to the conclusion of his term, a claim that Moscow has reiterated in recent months. On 28 January, Putin labeled Zelensky as “illegitimate” during an interview with Russian media.

Commenting on the electoral circumstances, Trump indicated he was aware that this narrative has often been pushed by Russia, mentioning: “That’s not a Russian thing; that’s something coming from me, from other countries.”

Zelensky has previously stated that to bring up the subject of elections amidst conflict would be “absolutely irresponsible.”

Additional reporting by BBC Monitoring.