Trading activity at the New York Stock Exchange on Monday concluded with traders expressing a sense of calm, despite a day characterized by significant fluctuations on Wall Street. The stock markets experienced a roller coaster of volatility spurred by a wave of headlines regarding Donald Trump’s trade war and the ensuing global economic uncertainty.
“The markets started off sharply lower, then a rumor circulated that tariffs might be lifted, prompting a spike, only for uncertainty to take over again and send it down,” remarked Steve Kos of Option Circle, sharing insights as he exited onto Broad Street in lower Manhattan.
“You have to go back to 2020, during Covid, when people feared for the future. Before that, it was 2008.”
Fellow traders resonated with his assessment, noting that the markets’ violent response to a false report of a 90-day pause on US tariffs (except for China), which White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed as “fake news,” underscored the jitteriness permeating the financial landscape.
“The markets are eager to rally, but they’re looking for a catalyst to do so,” stated a trader identifying himself as Jay, opting not to share his full name due to media restrictions.
The day’s tumultuous movements were triggered by a misinterpretation of an interview with Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, on Fox News on Sunday. In the interview, when asked about a potential “90-day timeout” on tariffs, Hassett replied: “Ultimately, the president will make the decision.”
According to Jay, “everything” revolves around Trump’s dealings with China. He added, “The administration is attempting to unify everyone to strategically isolate China. They’re signaling that if tariffs on you are removed, then you need to impose tariffs on China.”
“Everything hinges on China. Everything. It’s not just about lumber or fentanyl, it’s fundamentally about China. Everything regarding Greenland and to some extent, Russia, is about China. Panama is also tied to China. This is all about restraining China’s growth.”
Yet, he noted, there is no widespread expectation that the United States is aiming to become an insulated, self-sufficient entity. “Nobody aspires to that. They desire more fairness,” he asserted.
“Now we have a $37 trillion debt that needs restructuring, and Trump’s strategy seems to push for this through shock-and-awe methods. It may take months or years to determine if he’s been successful… but it’s clear some pain is inevitable.”
“The question is, how much discomfort can our economy and stock market endure for positive changes to materialize? A week or two of sell-offs is manageable, but if it drags on for months, those in Congress facing re-election will begin to feel the pressure…”
The fluctuations, remarked another trader, Stephen, highlighted a collective uncertainty. “No one seems to know what’s truly happening. The swings appear to come from nowhere, leading to sudden market drops. Then you encounter fake news. Who orchestrated that? An error? I honestly can’t say.”
When posed with the question of whether we are at the mercy of Trump, the trader replied, “You can only hope he has an undisclosed strategy. That’s where I place my hope. In reality, it’s unsettling. It’s a daunting period.”
Another trader leaving the exchange noted that the image of an exuberant trading floor filled with brokers dynamically shouting to sell feels outdated. Yes, there was tension in the air, but with the majority of trading conducted through automated systems, “it resembles organized chaos more than anything.”
In reality, the day’s trading was relatively subdued, with the Dow Jones closing down 349 points (approximately 1%) and the S&P declining by 12 points (0.23%).
“There was significant anxiety overnight during pre-market trades, but then it settled down,” commented a trader named Gordon. Looking forward, many anticipate ongoing volatility.
However, volatility also brings opportunities for profit. Although Trump may have catalyzed market chaos last week with his Rose Garden announcement about “liberation day” reciprocal tariffs—which even included Heard Island and McDonald Islands in the southern Indian Ocean, devoid of human habitation—the emergence of trading patterns signals potential for profit.
Anthony, a technical analyst with Wall Street experience since 1997, noted that the market’s volatility is heavily influenced by Trump’s statements, which in turn activate automated trading algorithms and cause market swings akin to a rubber band. He predicted that retail investors have yet to commence their sell-offs, “but it’s on the horizon.”
“What’s occurring is that these developments will directly impact American consumers, leading them to keep their wallets closed. Without a doubt, we are entering a recession,” he remarked. But will traders still profit? “Absolutely. You can often make more money in a declining market than in a rising one.”
Ultimately, he asserted, Trump won’t remain in power indefinitely. “Though we may currently be under his influence, similar to historical events like the World Trade Center, the 70s oil crisis, or Alan Greenspan’s handling of Long-Term Capital Management—all of these situations were temporary. Trump will come and go.”
“He’s trying to push through as much as possible before the midterms. This could backfire, triggering a recession, and typically, a president responsible for a recession faces non-reelection—alongside his party.”
