Kyiv, Ukraine – Prior to the emergency summit in Paris concerning Europe’s response to its exclusion from US-Russia peace negotiations, Ukraine’s president issued a warning about the grim future his nation would face if US military assistance were to be reduced.
“We will have a significantly reduced chance – a significantly reduced chance to survive without the support of the United States,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated during an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press.
In December, US President Donald Trump expressed a willingness to consider cutting military aid to Ukraine.
In a move that could further complicate relations, Zelenskyy turned down a proposed agreement with the US that would allow Washington access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in exchange for continued military aid.
This refusal, coupled with Trump’s recent remarks and private discussions with both Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has sparked new concerns about the sustainability of US support for Kyiv in the long run.
Counting on Europe
With US backing now in doubt, Europe is under increasing pressure to step in.
During the Munich Security Conference, held from February 14-16, Zelenskyy seemingly addressed Trump’s remarks by highlighting the necessity for Europe to develop its “own military capabilities.”
“Let’s be frank. We cannot dismiss the possibility that America might simply say ‘no’ to Europe on an issue that poses a threat,” Zelenskyy remarked.
Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, told Al Jazeera that Ukraine will require more assistance than Europe can provide.
“Europe is incapable of substituting for American aid,” he stated, predicting, “We won’t endure long without US military support, estimating that ‘We will last six months.’”
Political hurdles may obstruct Europe’s capacity to offer support.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico, both critical of military aid for Kyiv, could stall EU-wide measures. Additionally, the rise of Germany’s far-right AfD party complicates Europe’s ability to respond decisively.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is known for its anti-immigration stance, skepticism toward the European Union, and often pro-Putin tendencies. There are fears it could advocate for the termination of Berlin’s aid to Kyiv and facilitate the deportation of Ukrainian refugees.
Even if Europe could unite to enhance military assistance to Ukraine, it has struggled to ramp up its weapons and ammunition production. Russia’s defense industry has been outperforming NATO in arms production, highlighting the urgent need for the EU to refresh its defense industrial base to adequately aid Ukraine.
Moreover, Russia has been bolstered by support from North Korea, with Ukrainian intelligence estimating that Pyongyang has dispatched thousands of troops to areas held by Russia. Reports from South Korea indicate that North Korea has supplied Moscow with millions of artillery shells.
‘It was lousy’
Romanenko emphasized that Ukraine has already experienced a glimpse of what life would be like without US military assistance.
Republican hardliners, influenced by former President Donald Trump, had postponed for months a legislative bill passed in April 2024, which would facilitate over $60 billion in critical funding for Ukraine.
Before the aid package received approval, Ukraine lost multiple strategic positions in the southeastern Donbas area at a cost of “thousands of lives,” Romanenko explained.
Bohgan, a military officer deployed in Donbas during the military aid delay, shared with Al Jazeera that the intensity of combat significantly increased during that period.
“It was terrible; we could fire only five shells a day, while the [expletive] Russians could unleash hundreds without restraint,” said Bohgan, who withheld his last name due to regulations from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
‘Mid-summer or autumn’
With five separate bills successfully passed in the US Congress, Washington has thus far allocated $175 billion in aid to Kyiv since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at Germany’s University of Bremen, informed Al Jazeera that the pace at which Ukraine exhausts its US-funded military supplies will depend on how quickly its soldiers are compelled to deploy them.
Ongoing Russian airstrikes require Kyiv to depend on missiles for the US-supplied Patriot air defense system, he noted. Each Patriot missile is valued at several million dollars, and they are frequently used against disposable targets such as Iranian-made Shahed drones or their Russian replicas.
“Accordingly, I believe that the current and forthcoming US supplies will definitely be sufficient until mid-summer [July], if not extending into autumn [September], assuming they are utilized judiciously,” Mitrokhin stated.
The loss of US military resources cannot be compensated for by Europe, particularly regarding Patriot missiles, light armored vehicles, and 155mm shells essential for countering advancing Russian infantry, he elaborated.
Mitrokhin added that the duration for which Ukraine would need to endure without US military aid would be tied to how long it takes for US-Russia relations to deteriorate.
“Trump’s and Putin’s relationship is bound to sour, which will likely trigger a substantial increase in US supplies,” he posited to Al Jazeera.
‘Russians and Americans in expensive suits’
Kyiv-based analyst Alexey Kushch affirmed that Zelenskyy was justified in rejecting Trump’s proposal that linked military assistance to Ukraine’s mineral resources.
He remarked to Al Jazeera that the US ought to regard Ukraine as an ally, suggesting that “it would be fair” for Washington to forgive half of the debt and create a timeline for the remainder to be repaid by the end of the century.
“Nobody demanded the USSR to compensate for military aid by conceding its natural resources,” Kushch referenced, noting the billions in military equipment provided by Washington during World War II, which Russia completed payments on in the 1990s.
“Why should Ukraine, as an ally, be subject to such demands?” Kushch questioned, addressing Al Jazeera.
Regardless of whether the US halts military assistance, some Ukrainians are expressing feelings of disillusionment regarding the latest developments.
“As has always been the case, someone else will dictate our fate,” Vsevolod Boyko, a retired school principal whose son Ihor is serving in Donbas despite suffering two injuries, conveyed to Al Jazeera.
“A group of Russians and Americans in expensive suits will divvy up Ukraine without consulting us,” Boyko lamented. “And if we oppose their demands, they will threaten to cut off aid.”
