For British prime ministers, influenced by the legacies of Churchill and Roosevelt, Maggie and Ronnie, and the rich folklore surrounding the transatlantic alliance, the idea of visiting the White House typically stirs a sense of excitement. One of our senior diplomats once explained the charm of such encounters: “The red carpet is rolled out, the national anthems resonate, all those elements are quite enticing.” This is usually accompanied by formal declarations about the significance and robustness of the “special relationship”.
Number 10 exerted significant effort to get Sir Keir Starmer across the Atlantic early in Donald Trump’s second term, and until recently, officials at Downing Street were convinced that a meeting between the two might not end in disaster and could potentially be positive. In the aftermath of Trump’s re-election, UK policy could be encapsulated by the phrase “Don’t poke the beast”. Maintain a low profile. Overlook provocations. Attempt to draw on British heritage – golf, the royal family – with which this US president has shown some affinity. Place David Lammy in the spotlight to suggest there are many admirable qualities in the man whom the foreign secretary previously labeled a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath”. The approach was one of caution, and they believed it was proving effective.
While a barrage of fierce Trump criticisms have been directed at various countries – including Canada, Denmark, Mexico, and Panama – the UK has thus far avoided the brunt of his ire. Despite trade threats aimed at China, the EU, and America’s neighbors, ministers remain optimistic about the UK managing to avoid punitive tariffs. They felt a sense of satisfaction in Number 10 when, a few weeks back, the US president referred to Sir Keir as “a very good person” who has done “a very good job thus far”. It appeared, they mused in Downing Street, that perhaps all would turn out well.
However, nobody at Number 10, the Foreign Office, or the Ministry of Defence feels at ease now. Not after what has transpired over the past ten days. The “Don’t poke the beast” approach was only effective for as long as the beast opted not to bite.
Sir Keir, not even eight months into his role and still relatively inexperienced in international relations, is traveling to America this week with transatlantic ties more fractured than ever before. Though it is not his doing, he is haunted by the realization that the alliance forged during World War II appears to be crumbling while he is in charge. The initial blow came from Trump’s unexpected announcement that he had initiated land-for-peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin without consulting Kyiv and the NATO member nations. That shock was followed by a meeting between the US secretary of state and his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia, with Ukraine notably absent from discussions about its future.
In a deeply troubling address to the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance provoked Europe by questioning whether the continent’s values were worth defending, followed by a controversial meeting with the leader of the far-right AfD just before the German elections. Subsequently, the US president falsely accused Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being a “dictator” and baselessly blamed Ukraine’s democratically elected leader for the war that has ravaged his nation. It should be remembered that the conflict was ignited three years ago by a brutal Russian invasion aimed at eradicating its smaller neighbor as a sovereign nation. The entire spectrum of UK politics has rebuked the US president’s recycling of absurd Kremlin propaganda that attempts to assign blame to the victim rather than the aggressor. Even Nigel Farage, typically an unapologetic supporter of Trump, admitted he could not endorse that view. Sir Keir promptly condemned the attack and reached out to President Zelenskyy to offer his support. One cabinet member remarked: “Keir has shown real courage on that.”
One question looming over the prime minister as he embarks on his trip to America is how “ballsy” he is willing to be when facing the US president directly. If Trump reiterates his misguided opinions about Ukraine, the prime minister will face a critical choice. Should he respond meekly or remain silent, he risks appearing weak and ineffective. Conversely, if he stands up against it as a calumny, he may provoke the ire of this thin-skinned and vindictive US president.
That represents just one of the numerous risks associated with a visit fraught with peril. Another threat is encountering outright dismissal when attempting to persuade the American that Europe should play a role in negotiations and that Ukraine must be “kept in the fight” to enhance the West’s leverage with Russia. Some in the UK government believe the chances of making headway may be slightly better than they appear. “A lot of commentary is jumping way ahead of itself,” states a senior individual involved in the visit’s planning. “The Trump administration is still finding its footing. Even clearly defined positions can change in less than a day. There are many voices competing for Trump’s attention.”
Number 10 has invested considerable time considering how to make the prime minister’s voice influential enough to sway US policy. Attempting to promote Sir Keir as a “bridge” between America and Europe sounds overly ambitious. This US president tends to view any bridge as something to demolish. European leaders are skeptical about the UK portraying itself as a mediator, especially since the country is no longer part of the EU. It seems more pragmatic to coordinate with Emmanuel Macron, whose upcoming trip to Washington will precede Sir Keir’s, to present the argument that Europe must not be excluded from pivotal decisions affecting its security. Another challenge for the prime minister involves countering the belief held by some close to Trump that a deal with Putin might benefit the US by disrupting the Russia-China alliance.
It’s reported that the prime minister intends to argue to the president that leaving Europe vulnerable will compromise the strategic interests of the US, as it will encourage aggressive actions from China and strengthen the ties between Beijing and Moscow, which is the opposite of what Washington desires. Sir Keir will also assert that Europe is now responsive to Trump regarding taking greater responsibility for its own defense.
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“We’ve got to say to the US: ‘We hear you’,” emphasizes one senior minister. “We recognize that we must act more, and more swiftly.” To the president’s ears, this may come across as weak unless it is supported by more substantial measures than a vague promise to increase British defense spending to 2.5% of GDP at an unspecified future date, which is considerably less than the 5% of GDP that Trump has recently demanded.
Gathering intelligence should be a priority for the prime minister and his team during their stay in Washington. Listening to Trump and his advisors will be equally crucial as speaking. What type of deal do the Americans envision securing with the Kremlin? That insight would be valuable, even if the response turns out to be unsettling. Being forewarned is being forearmed. The reality may well be that members of the Trump administration have yet to agree or settle on what their ideal outcome is.
Diplomats believe there is one strategy with the highest potential for gaining traction with this occupant of the Oval Office. This involves appealing to his ego and self-interest by warning that a shady agreement regarding Ukraine on the Kremlin’s terms will cast Putin as the dominant player and leave the US president looking feeble. Kim Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US, advises: “If I were Starmer, I would tell Trump that this is your opportunity for a legacy in history, the man who forged peace and ended this war. However, it must be a fair deal. If it’s a poor agreement, you won’t receive praise; instead, you’ll face criticism, and that will be your legacy as recorded in history.”
Appealing to Donald Trump’s vanity might be a valid approach. While it may not be dignified, it could be crucial for Sir Keir to return from Washington with something he can consider a success.
