It remains uncertain whether Elon Musk’s government efficiency commission will achieve its intended goals effectively. However, it has certainly proven to be persistent.
The so-called DOGE commission has initiated the process of publishing a list of items it claims to have removed from the federal budget. Just over a month into its operation, the group asserts it has generated “savings” that total billions of taxpayer dollars, primarily through the cancellation or renegotiation of contracts. These range from low-cost news service subscriptions to multimillion-dollar training initiatives and various contracted services that Musk has eliminated.
Yahoo Finance reviewed 1,127 records uploaded to doge.gov as of February 19. While we did not conduct a thorough audit or validation of each reported action, we categorized them by agency to illustrate where Musk’s commission has concentrated its efforts and what types of actions it has pursued.
These 1,127 records encompassed activities across 39 agencies, including several highly publicized targets of the Trump-Musk initiative. With approximately 400 federal agencies, varying in size, DOGE has only just begun its review.
The US Agency for International Development (USAID) has experienced the most significant cuts so far, amounting to $6.5 billion, based on DOGE records. Following closely is the Department of Education with $502 million in reductions, followed by the Social Security Administration at $232 million. Other agencies seeing cuts exceeding $100 million include the General Services Administration and the departments of Agriculture, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Transportation, and Commerce.
The precise meaning of “savings” in DOGEspeak is still unclear. Most actions seem to involve funds that Congress allocated and approved, which were subsequently assigned by the executive branch through contracts that the Trump administration has now canceled.
The DOGE data connects to numerous contract summaries, indicating that the spending in question often spans multiple years. Typically, under most contracts, the buyer pays in installments rather than upfront. There’s no specific timeline for the funds DOGE refers to as “savings,” but it appears the spending discussed would have extended over months or years.
Significant errors have already emerged in DOGE’s record-keeping. The New York Times examined one canceled contract initially valued at $8 billion, a figure that was incorrect by three zeros; the true value was only $8 million. While this could have been a simple data-entry oversight, DOGE appears to have included the $8 billion figure in calculating its claimed total savings of $55 billion to date.
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Since Yahoo Finance started accessing the DOGE data on February 19, some figures in various entries have changed, prompting us to update our summaries. The overall value of the line-item cost reductions on the DOGE site is considerably less than the $55 billion it claims as total savings. The purported savings from the 1,127 posted contract actions total around $8.5 billion, and again, this is likely spread over multiple years. A smaller subset of savings from real estate transactions sums to $145 million, though DOGE provides less detail about real estate savings than it does for contracts.
These documented savings do not account for any layoffs, buyouts, or other workforce reductions, which could be significant if Musk’s plans come to fruition. Around 75,000 federal employees are believed to have accepted buyouts. The Trump administration aims to eliminate an additional 200,000 “probationary” workers who have been employed for less than a year. Many others at USAID and other agencies remain in uncertainty as their job functions have been put on hold pending reviews or possibly a visit from DOGE.
At the same time, the rapidly declining federal workforce is becoming a national economic issue. Moody’s Analytics has now predicted a “mild recession” in the Washington, D.C., area due to the loss of at least 100,000 relatively well-paying government positions. Torsten Sløk, chief economist for Apollo, which owns Yahoo, stated that a key concern for investors is whether firings related to DOGE could trigger a broader economic recession.
Demonstrators gather at Health and Human Services headquarters to protest the policies of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk in Washington, D.C. (AP Photo/John McDonnell) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Numerous lawsuits are currently challenging the cuts mandated by Trump through executive action, as only Congress possesses the constitutional authority to approve or eliminate spending. Although Republicans in Congress have remained largely silent thus far, this may change as Trump’s cuts begin to impact their constituents adversely.
Whether ending contracts, selling real estate, and eliminating federal employees qualifies as “savings” or as irresponsible actions is up for debate. A significant portion of federal spending directly benefits citizens through programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans’ benefits. A large segment also goes to defense, with only a minor percentage directed to vital needs like infrastructure. Total foreign aid constitutes just 1% of federal spending, while total compensation for the approximately 3 million federal workers, excluding the military, is around $270 billion, which is merely 4% of the total federal expenditure.
Private companies routinely implement cost-cutting measures. If these reductions eliminate unproductive or redundant processes, they can enhance efficiency. However, some cost-cutting initiatives can go too far, sidelining or abolishing crucial functions.
Rapid reductions: President Donald Trump and Elon Musk at the White House. (Photo/Alex Brandon) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
The judgment ultimately lies with investors to determine if financial performance has improved or declined, rewarding successful stocks and divesting from underperformers.
Although there is no actual “stock” in the federal government, various auditors still evaluate performance across agencies, including the Government Accountability Office, the Congressional Budget Office, and the internal oversight divisions of different departments. Trump has already targeted some of these entities, dismissing 17 inspectors general across agencies like USAID and the Education Department.
These officials are precisely the ones tasked with evaluating the type of information Musk’s commission is currently disseminating and determining its accuracy. It is possible that, during Trump’s second term, the one agency that remains unexamined will be DOGE itself.
Editor’s note: This article previously described contract values on the DOGE website as “savings.” We have revised the article with new data indicating that the DOGE “savings” are less than the total contract values.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.
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