On Thursday, Donald Trump unveiled new punitive reciprocal tariffs on imports from 185 countries worldwide. Notably, Russia and its ally Belarus are among the few nations exempt from the US president’s tariffs list, while Ukraine is not.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Fox News that existing sanctions meant that trade with Russia had effectively ceased. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US, along with many European nations, intensified the sanctions already in place against Russia. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt emphasized that the US sanctions in conjunction with the conflict in Ukraine would hinder “any meaningful trade” with Russia. But is this assertion entirely accurate?
Strategic goods from Russia
The United States Census Bureau reports a drastic decline in trade with Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, plummeting from approximately $36 billion (€32.9 billion) in 2021 to about $3.5 billion (€3.2 billion) in 2024.
Bessent’s assertion of no trade with Russia does not accurately capture the reality that imports from the nation, although significantly reduced, are still important for the US, especially for strategic goods like fertilizers and inorganic chemicals.
Even if trade with Russia has dwindled to a mere one-tenth of its previous levels, its exclusion from Trump’s new tariffs cannot simply be attributed to existing sanctions or falling import figures.
In contrast, Washington is applying a 27% tariff on imports from Kazakhstan, despite trade volume mirroring that of Russia: around $3.4 billion (€3.1 billion), with $2.3 billion (€2.1 billion) being US imports. The trade volume with Ukraine is even less, at $2.9 billion (€2.6 billion), including $1.2 billion (€1.1 billion) in imports. Nonetheless, Ukraine is subject to a 10% punitive tariff on Trump’s list.
‘Leniency of a symbolic nature’
While some sanctioned nations like Venezuela appear on Trump’s tariff list, others that are also under sanctions, including Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus, are excluded from the new measures.
According to political scientist and American studies expert Alexandra Filippenko, “This appears to be leniency of a symbolic nature,” as she commented to DW.
The US has not released specific figures on trade with North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus. However, UN estimates suggest that bilateral trade between the US and Belarus amounts to several tens of millions of dollars annually. For instance, in 2024, Belarusian goods worth $21 million (€19.1 million) were imported into the US.
This tariff list does not seem solely based on a country’s trade volume. Even remote or sparsely populated areas like the Heard and McDonald Islands — distant Australian territories in the southern Indian Ocean with minimal relevance to US trade — are included in the new tariffs.
Notably, Canada and Mexico are also absent from this list, even though most goods imported from these nations are already subject to existing tariffs of 25 percent.
Why is Russia exempt?
Alexandra Filippenko views Trump’s decision to exclude Russia from the tariffs as a clear signal of his priority in improving relations with Moscow. She referenced a Telegram post by Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian president’s special envoy currently in Washington, noting that dialogue restoration between Russia and the US is a “difficult and gradual process,” but that “each meeting, each frank conversation allows us to move forward.”
Nina Khrushcheva, a New School professor of international affairs, also suggests that diplomacy might explain Trump’s reluctance to impose tariffs on Russia. “I believe political pressure will be applied to Russia in some capacity, but during Dmitriev’s visit, tariffs seem counterproductive,” she told DW. The Trump administration could impose tariffs on Russia at a later stage if deemed necessary, added Khrushcheva.
In contrast, Oleg Buklemishev, Director of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Moscow State University, argues that Trump’s decisions regarding Russia and Ukraine lack “any economic logic.”
Buklemishev considers the choice to avoid imposing extra tariffs on Russia a political maneuver, regardless of Washington’s claims that bilateral trade is minimal. He noted that Russian exports of nuclear fuel, fertilizers, and platinum metals to the US continue, and imposing hefty tariffs on these could lead to increased energy costs, which do not align with Trump’s agenda.
Moreover, he pointed out that the current trade volume with Russia, although significantly reduced, pales in comparison to the volumes with both Europe and China.
According to Buklemishev, a return to robust trade between Russia and the US seems unrealistic. “Even if relations were to soften, it would be impossible to revert to previous levels due to ongoing financial, logistical, and sanctions-related constraints, and China has already partially filled the gap in the Russian market,” he concluded.
This article was originally written in German.
