On Sunday, President Donald Trump expressed his frustration towards Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating he was “p***** off” and indicated that he would impose further financial sanctions on Russian oil sales if a ceasefire in Ukraine was not agreed upon.
This marked a notable shift in Trump’s rhetoric, as he has previously shown a willingness to engage in peace talks with Russia since his second term commenced in January.
Here’s a closer look at what transpired, the implications of Trump’s warning, and its significance for Putin’s campaign in Ukraine, as well as for nations purchasing Russian oil.
What did Trump say about Putin?
In an NBC interview on Sunday, Trump conveyed that he was “very angry” and “p***** off” concerning Putin’s remarks questioning the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
He stated that any efforts to replace Zelenskyy would inevitably hinder the chances for a ceasefire.
However, Trump noted that Putin was aware of his displeasure. He described their relationship as “very good,” suggesting that his anger could dissipate quickly if Putin acted appropriately.
What had Putin said about Zelenskyy?
Putin claimed that Zelenskyy lacked the authority to sign a peace agreement.
The Russian President has often labeled the Ukrainian government as illegitimate since the ousting of pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, an event the Kremlin alleges was orchestrated by the US.
On Thursday, Putin proposed the establishment of a temporary administration in Ukraine under UN oversight, which UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres dismissed.
Zelenskyy took office in 2019 for a five-year term, while the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. The country was due for presidential elections in 2024; however, war conditions have led to the imposition of martial law, prohibiting elections under such scenarios.
Despite now criticizing Putin for undermining Zelenskyy’s legitimacy, Trump had previously made similar comments, referring to Zelenskyy as “A Dictator without Elections” on his Truth Social platform in February during tensions with the Ukrainian leader.
What is the state of diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine war?
Trump has promised to swiftly resolve the Ukraine conflict during his presidential campaign.
Since his inauguration, US negotiating teams have engaged separately with Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Saudi Arabia to discuss potential peace terms. Trump has also spoken individually with Putin and Zelenskyy during this time.
A truce on military action in the Black Sea was agreed upon by the three parties on March 25, as well as a 30-day suspension on attacks targeting energy infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine. Nevertheless, each side has since accused the other of violating this agreement.
Ukraine and the US have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire on land and sea for 30 days, contingent on Russia’s endorsement. Putin has yet to sign this proposal, expressing concerns that Ukraine might utilize the period to rearm and mobilize additional troops amidst a manpower shortage.
What has Trump threatened — and will it work?
Trump has signaled potential “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil if he holds Moscow accountable for failing to reach a ceasefire.
“If Russia and I can’t strike a deal to halt the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I believe it was Russia’s fault — which may not be the case — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I will impose secondary tariffs on all oil from Russia,” Trump stated during the NBC interview.
He warned, “If you buy oil from Russia, you won’t be able to do business in the United States. A 25 percent tariff would be placed on all oil, ranging between 25 to 50 percent.”
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House in London, conveyed to Al Jazeera that the effectiveness of these threats in pressuring Russia remains uncertain.
“Trump has sporadically threatened economic penalties against Russia, but they seldom materialize,” Giles remarked, adding that imposing pressure on Moscow, rather than Kyiv, would represent a “radical departure” from Trump’s previous stance on the war.
“It’s uncertain if this threat is credible; the previous threats have been empty, and Putin is aware of that,” Giles noted.
What are secondary tariffs?
Trump’s concept of “secondary tariffs” appears to involve levying taxes on imports from countries that procure Russian oil.
The US has historically spearheaded campaigns involving what are termed secondary sanctions — where nations engaging in trade with a sanctioned entity also face penalties. For example, secondary sanctions target imports of Iranian oil and heavy military supplies from Russia; entities involved in such trades risk US sanctions.
This threat of secondary sanctions has deterred many global banks from engaging in trade with Russia or Iran, as they aim to avoid jeopardizing business opportunities in the US.
In contrast, secondary tariffs remain a relatively untested approach. Recently, Trump also instituted a 25 percent secondary tariff on US imports from any country purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela.
Which countries could Trump’s secondary tariffs hurt?
If Trump proceeds with secondary tariffs on Russian oil, nations like India and China could face significant repercussions.
India and China rank as the top consumers of discounted Russian crude.
In 2024, Russian oil constituted 35 percent of India’s overall crude imports, while 19 percent of China’s oil imports originated from Russia. Moreover, Turkiye has also been a notable importer of Russian oil, sourcing up to 58 percent of its refined petroleum imports from Russia in 2023.
How much would secondary tariffs bleed China, India and Turkiye?
Should Trump impose these tariffs, it remains unclear whether they would be in addition to existing tariffs or whether they would replace previously established ones.
The US is China’s largest export market; in 2024, Chinese goods valued at $463bn were sold to the US. However, Trump has already implemented a 20 percent tariff on all imports from China.
Similarly, the US is India’s most significant export market, with Indian exports to the US totaling $91bn in 2024. Yet, Trump has consistently criticized India’s elevated tariffs on US imports.
Turkiye faces comparatively less exposure, designating the US as its second-largest export market, following Germany, with $17bn in exports to the US in 2024.
Notably, Trump has also threatened reciprocal tariffs against all US trading partners starting April 2.
Should Trump take a hard stance against countries importing Russian oil, India, in particular, might find itself under scrutiny from Washington. This is largely due to accusations that India — possessing 22 oil refineries, including the world’s largest in Jamnagar, Gujarat — has been buying subsidized Russian oil, refining it, and exporting it to the West, effectively allowing Moscow to bypass Western sanctions.
In 2023, India exported $55.8bn worth of refined oil products like petrol and diesel to nations including the US, UK, France, and Belgium, which impose strict sanctions on importing Russian crude, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).
Following Canada, India is the second-largest exporter of refined oil to the US, constituting 7.5 percent of US oil imports in 2023, based on OEC data.
However, India’s position has been that by obtaining Russian oil, it has alleviated the crude supply constraints for other nations, such as those in the Middle East and Africa, allowing Western nations to purchase more oil and stabilizing global prices. If Russian oil were to become unavailable to anyone, every nation would scramble for dwindling supplies from other sources, leading to rising prices.
