President Trump’s suggestion that the United States take control of the Gaza Strip while other nations accept the Palestinians living there is a proposition King Abdullah II of Jordan cannot endorse.
The king gently dismissed Mr. Trump, expressing during their meeting at the White House on Tuesday that the American president plays a crucial role in establishing peace in the Middle East, and committed to having Jordan accommodate more Palestinians requiring medical assistance. This perspective seemed to sway Mr. Trump to retract earlier threats regarding the withdrawal of aid to Jordan if it turned down his proposal.
Nevertheless, the idea exposes significant challenges for King Abdullah, whose family has a historically complex and sometimes tumultuous relationship with Palestinians.
Here is what you should understand about the president’s proposal and the historical context behind the king’s refusal.
The president’s plan is unclear and caught even his advisers off guard when he unveiled it last week. Mr. Trump has been inconsistent and ambiguous regarding the specifics of the plan, but it clearly relies on Jordan and Egypt, among others, to accept a significant number of Palestinian refugees.
Mr. Trump has claimed that the approximately 2 million residents of Gaza would willingly leave and not wish to return. However, he has also implied that they might be forcibly removed and barred from returning, which would contravene international law and undermine long-standing aspirations for a Palestinian state comprising Gaza and the West Bank.
Regardless, the Jordanian king is cautious, particularly since a substantial influx of Palestinians into his country could revive memories of a violent conflict in Jordan instigated by previous waves of refugees.
Why is the plan concerning for Jordan?
The king of Jordan cannot agree to Mr. Trump’s proposal without alienating significant segments of his country’s populace.
An influx of Palestinian refugees could further alter the demographics of a nation that already has a considerable Palestinian population—estimates suggest that Jordanians with Palestinian roots account for between one-quarter to two-thirds of the population—and might exacerbate tensions between them and other Jordanians. This scenario could destabilize the delicate equilibrium the king works hard to maintain, which includes safeguarding distinct Jordanian interests while supporting his citizens of Palestinian origin and advocating for a Palestinian state.
Integrating Gazans, whether temporarily or permanently, could practically and philosophically undermine the pursuit of Palestinian statehood, leading to unrest within Jordan and beyond. Concurrently, the introduction of a new wave of refugees could alarm loyalists of the monarchy who fear Jordan may become a de facto Palestinian state.
Increased Palestinian migration could also jeopardize Jordan’s economic stability—and based on past experiences, even national security. It might present an opportunity for the armed Palestinian group Hamas, which has historically exercised control in Gaza. In 1999, Jordan took stringent measures against Hamas, shuttering its offices, expelling certain members, and banning its leaders from engaging in political activities within the country.
“Jordan has a long and very troubled history with organized Palestinian movements,” remarked Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and a former Middle East negotiator for the State Department.
What has been Jordan’s relationship with Palestinians?
During the wars surrounding the formation of Israel in 1948, around 700,000 Palestinians either fled or were expelled from the new state—finding refuge in areas such as the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, and Syria.
Jordan annexed the West Bank and East Jerusalem, while Egypt took control of Gaza, thwarting the establishment of the Palestinian state anticipated in a United Nations partition resolution.
Consequently, Jordan was left with a considerable Palestinian population and became a primary base for Palestinian armed factions battling Israel.
However, during the 1967 war with Arab nations, Israel captured the West Bank and annexed East Jerusalem. This conflict resulted in another influx of approximately 300,000 Palestinian refugees into Jordan.
Twenty years later, Jordan renounced its claim to the territory, revoking Jordanian citizenship for some Palestinians residing in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, who now number over 3 million.
Presently, it is estimated that Jordanians with Palestinian heritage comprise between one-quarter and two-thirds of the population.
Overall, Palestinians in Jordan tend to be poorer and have less representation in government compared to other Jordanians.
When have Jordan and Palestinians clashed?
The most significant conflict between Jordan and Palestinian factions began in September 1970, a period some Palestinians refer to as Black September. The roots of the crisis can be traced back to the 1967 war, which led to a new influx of refugees in Jordan and the emergence of militant groups, such as the Palestine Liberation Organization, operating their militias within the state.
Tensions escalated when the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine hijacked several airliners destined for New York and London, diverting three planes to a secluded airstrip in Jordan in September 1970. The hijackers demanded the release of Palestinian militants held in Europe in exchange for more than 300 hostages. Most hostages were eventually freed within days, although some remained captive for an extended period.
In response, the king declared martial law, resulting in intense fighting between his military forces and Palestinian fighters that continued well into the following year. By the summer of 1971, the Palestinian factions were expelled from Jordan and relocated to Lebanon.
“The aftermath of 1970 influences everyone in the kingdom,” stated Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Are there personal stakes for the king?
King Abdullah’s authority in Jordan is partially contingent on both his and his wife, Queen Rania—who hails from a Palestinian background—being long-standing and vocal champions of the Palestinian cause and the push for a Palestinian state.
Any actions perceived as undermining that endeavor could jeopardize his grip on power. Historically, the relationship between Jordan’s rulers and the Palestinian populace has been fraught with tension and has sometimes been lethal.
The current king’s great-grandfather, Abdullah I, was the first ruler of Jordan, initially during its time as a British protectorate and then as a sovereign kingdom established in 1946.
The royal family’s origins in Saudi Arabia have led some Palestinians to label them as outsiders, and their cordial relationships with Western powers—and subsequently with Israel—have added to existing political tensions.
King Abdullah I was assassinated in 1951 at Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem by a Palestinian angered by reports of secret negotiations with Israel.
His grandson, King Hussein, who ruled from 1952 to 1999, was similarly criticized as ineffectual due to military defeats and faced various assassination plots and threats to his reign.
