Will Trump’s Suspension of U.S. Intelligence and Weapons for Ukraine Bring Zelenskyy and Putin Closer to Peace or Drive Them Further Apart?

The CIA director announced on Wednesday that the Trump administration has halted not only the provision of military supplies and financial aid to Ukraine but also critical intelligence operations that have been essential for Kyiv in anticipating and intercepting missile and drone strikes as well as pinpointing Russia’s invading forces. The U.S. military’s European Command also indicated that shipments of weapons already in transit — authorized by the Biden administration but not yet dispatched — are on pause.

This pause represents a significant shift in President Trump’s policy towards Ukraine, which has resulted in the White House adopting rhetoric that closely mirrors Russia’s narrative justifying the ongoing three-year conflict against its smaller neighbor. Trump seems to be attempting to coerce Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into agreeing to a ceasefire that might require substantial concessions from Kyiv.

In a Thursday event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington and moderated by CBS News’ Margaret Brennan, Mr. Trump’s special envoy to Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, justified the intelligence suspension as a necessary wake-up call for Kyiv, signaling the White House’s commitment to pursuing a peace agreement.

“It’s like hitting a mule with a two-by-four across their noses — we got their attention,” he stated. “But it’s a pause, it’s not an end. It’s then up to them.”

Kellogg acknowledged the seriousness of the measure but insisted it should not have surprised Kyiv, asserting, “They were warned this was coming. I told them.”

“Of course, taking away support like that is significant,” said Kellogg, a retired Lieutenant General in the U.S. Army. “But that’s why it was done.”

Officials from the Trump administration have suggested that Vladimir Putin will also need to make concessions to establish a ceasefire, although these have not been detailed by the White House thus far. To engage in substantive negotiations regarding a potential ceasefire agreement, Trump has indicated that he expects Zelenskyy to first grant the U.S. access to a substantial portion of Ukraine’s mineral resources.

Why Ukraine believes security guarantees are crucial

Zelenskyy’s hesitance to sign an economic agreement without explicit guarantees of U.S. support in defending Ukraine from further Russian aggression reportedly frustrated Trump during their chaotic Oval Office meeting on Friday. The White House has consistently implied that American business investment in Ukraine, including U.S. personnel on the ground, would inherently protect the country against Russian threats. Trump has even stated that he trusts Russia to uphold any commitments it makes.

Ukraine and its European allies harbor deep suspicions towards Putin’s Russia. They recall that as the Biden administration sounded alarms about Russia’s imminent invasion at the start of 2022, top officials in Moscow repeatedly denied any such intentions.

“I am confident there is no danger of large-scale war. … We do not plan to take any aggressive actions. We will not attack, raid, or invade Ukraine,” asserted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov about a month before Putin initiated the full-scale invasion, igniting the heaviest conflict in Europe since World War II.

In light of recent events, Ukraine’s former Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, stated to CBS News on Wednesday that any discussions of a ceasefire with Russia at this juncture, absent clear security assurances from the West, would merely provide Putin with the opportunity to regroup and reinforce his beleaguered military, paving the way for another invasion.

Could a Ukrainian “goodwill gesture” persuade Trump?

“We seek peace, but we are also keen on securing something that would be guaranteed as peace and not something that the Russian Federation could exploit as a pause to remobilize and launch a massive assault on Ukraine and other European nations,” Klympush-Tsintsadze told CBS News in Kyiv on Wednesday.

Following Zelenskyy’s rebuke at the White House, Ukrainian officials — including Zelenskyy himself — have conveyed they are willing to negotiate an economic deal with the U.S.

“I believe this agreement could merely open the door for discussions on another deal,” Klympush-Tsintsadze said, suggesting that the economic agreement could establish a framework for further engagement with the United States, “serving as a goodwill gesture with the hope that it would lead to U.S. support against evil.”

European leaders stress that Russia has demonstrated no willingness to compromise on its demands that Ukraine relinquish approximately 20% of its territory currently occupied by Russian forces. The Kremlin has consistently rejected the idea of European peacekeeping forces assisting in maintaining a ceasefire.

Russia’s assaults on Ukraine persist

Rather than signs of reconciliation, Russian missiles, bombs, and drone strikes are continuing to rain down on Ukraine.

Recently, the assaults escalated. Krivy Rih, the eastern city and President Zelenskyy’s hometown, was struck by a Russian ballistic missile. In a social media update, Zelenskyy reported that among the affected structures was a hotel housing aid workers, including several U.S. and British volunteers. The attack resulted in at least 30 injuries and four fatalities, with Zelenskyy confirming that none of the deceased were from the U.S. or the U.K.

“Unfortunately, I do not perceive any willingness from the Russian Federation to genuinely engage,” Klympush-Tsintsadze lamented, emphasizing that Ukraine has endured bombardment “every single night.” “Such behavior does not signify goodwill toward ending these assaults.”

What Ukraine desires versus what Russia seeks

Klympush-Tsintsadze expressed hope that an agreement with the Trump administration regarding minerals “might pave the way for a true peace settlement,” but she cautioned that “a peace agreement lacking security guarantees from our partners would likely be untenable against the Russian Federation.”

“We’ve been down this road before,” she remarked, recalling that when Russia first invaded her nation 11 years ago, seizing the Crimean Peninsula while denying involvement, Moscow claimed the justification was “NATO’s expansion.” However, she asserted Ukraine was “a completely neutral and non-aligned nation” at that time.

“And all the other fabrications that the Russian Federation has spun against the Ukrainian people stem from their desire to erase our existence. They aim to obliterate us as a nation and as a state, and that’s their objective. Therefore, for us to achieve peace, we must identify a pathway toward a peace agreement — one that unequivocally involves a ceasefire, but does not solely conclude with a ceasefire.”

Moscow has defended its aggression against Ukraine for over a decade as a justified response to the encroachment of the U.S.-led NATO alliance towards Russia’s western border. This expansion began following the collapse of the communist Soviet Union in 1991, when former Soviet bloc nations chose to join the Western alliance for their security.

Ukraine has shown interest in NATO membership for more than two decades, cooperating as a neutral partner with NATO during that time. However, it was not offered a clear path to membership — primarily due to concerns that this would provoke Russia — until after Putin’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

In 2023, with the conflict ongoing, then-President Biden expressed skepticism about Ukraine’s “readiness for NATO membership,” stating he did not sense a unified stance among the alliance’s members “about whether or not to incorporate Ukraine into the NATO family at this juncture, during the midst of a war.”

The Trump administration has dismissed Ukraine’s accession to the alliance and initiated unilateral negotiations with Russia. This direct dialogue between Washington and Moscow, coupled with the absence of any explicit demands from Trump for concessions from Putin, has raised alarm in Kyiv and among Western European capitals regarding the White House’s commitment to both the NATO alliance and securing a ceasefire in Ukraine that doesn’t appear to humiliate and capitulate pro-Western Zelenskyy.

Russia maintains it is inclined to conclude the war it instigated in Ukraine, and Trump has indicated his belief in this assertion from Moscow. In remarks to reporters in Moscow on Thursday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated the Russian narrative, which has been advocated since Trump’s engagement with Putin, alleging that Europe, more than Washington, is responsible for the conflict’s protracted nature.

Peskov remarked that while under Trump, the U.S. “is not friendly towards us at this time, we view the United States as a country with which we are now striving to revive and restore our bilateral relations.”

However, he clarified that this is not the case with America’s NATO allies in Europe.

Ukraine seeks support from Europe, while hoping the “United States will champion democracy”

Peskov pointed to comments made by French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Wednesday advocated for Europe to enhance its military capabilities and take on more responsibility for continental defense — a position also endorsed by President Trump — as proof that “France is genuinely seeking a continuation of the war.” He claimed Macron suggested that “France is prepared to utilize its nuclear weapons for security purposes and so on,” framing this as a “claim to nuclear leadership in Europe,” which he deemed “very, very confrontational.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking on Thursday, characterized Macron’s comments as “a threat to Russia,” while scoffing at European assertions that Russia constitutes a threat to continental security, calling such claims “foolish” and “delirious nonsense.”

In his Wednesday night address, Macron did mention atomic weapons, stating that France’s “deterrent capabilities” had significantly shielded the country “more than many of our neighbors” lacking such weapons. While he did not specifically mention plans to strengthen France’s nuclear deterrent, he indicated he would consider requests from nations like Germany to extend “the protection of our allies on the European continent through our deterrent.”

As Europe confronts Challenges about ensuring its defense against potential future threats from Russia and beyond, Ukrainians are hopeful that the continent’s leaders act swiftly to bolster their defenses against Russia’s current, ongoing assault.

France swiftly reassured it would persist in sharing its intelligence with Ukraine following the U.S. suspension, with Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu affirming: “Our intelligence is sovereign. We possess intelligence that we allow Ukraine to benefit from.”

“We are optimistic that the collective goodwill of the European nations will translate urgently into bolstering their defense involvement with Ukraine,” Klympush-Tsintsadze told CBS News. “They’ve contributed much already. Their capacities are significantly more limited than those of the United States, but we hope they can escalate their defense production efforts and assist us in procuring weaponry to maintain our strength while Russia has not abandoned its plans to annihilate us.”

She reiterated that Ukraine would continue striving for an agreement with Trump.

“We aim to effectively communicate the message to the American public. I believe this is also crucial, and I’m confident President Trump genuinely values the support he enjoys back in the United States. I hope he listens to his citizens [expressing] why this matters and why the United States is expected to champion democracy and stand for freedoms.”

contributed to this report.