The upcoming Wisconsin Supreme Court race next week is shaping up to be a significant test of the Democrats’ strategy against Elon Musk, as the party seeks a successful message following its defeat to President Donald Trump last November.
Musk, a billionaire adviser to Trump, is playing a crucial role in this ostensibly nonpartisan judicial contest: his super PAC has become the leading spender in the election, offering $100 to Wisconsin voters who sign a petition opposing “activist judges,” and frequently sharing posts about the race on his X platform.
With Musk’s controversial initiatives through the Department of Government Efficiency aimed at reducing the federal government size — coupled with polling indicating that he’s less popular than Trump, who endorsed conservative candidate Brad Schimel last week — Democratic groups and liberal candidate Susan Crawford are spotlighting Musk as the race reaches its climax.
This approach is one that Democrats might replicate in other tight battleground states if it proves effective.
“Democrats can’t currently defeat Trump,” said Wisconsin Republican strategist Brandon Scholz. “But they can still go after Musk aggressively.”
Scholz cautioned that Democrats could inadvertently boost conservative turnout in the off-year election by making Trump their primary focus, given that he narrowly won Wisconsin during his bid for a second presidential term.
“I doubt the Democrats want to tie [Schimel] to Trump, as that would motivate MAGA voters to vote,” Scholz remarked.
The election on Tuesday will once again decide the ideological balance of the state Supreme Court, likely impacting crucial issues like abortion rights, labor unions, and congressional district maps. Crawford, a state judge from Madison and former member of the Democratic administration under ex-Gov. Jim Doyle, faces off against Schimel, a Waukesha County judge and former Republican attorney general.
Crawford and her supporters have been vocal in condemning Musk’s financial influence in the race through various ads.
One ad from the Crawford campaign, airing on both cable and broadcast networks, features a former assistant district attorney from Madison accusing Musk of trying to buy the election with misleading ads about Judge Susan Crawford. Another recent TV ad claimed that Musk is “trying to buy Schimel a Supreme Court seat because he knows Schimel will always assist his major campaign contributors.”
Crawford has consistently used Musk as a counterpoint during campaign rallies and attributes her recent fundraising success to grassroots contributions from individuals opposed to Musk’s control over the Supreme Court.
“Voters are highly engaged by Musk,” said Crawford campaign spokesperson Derrick Honeyman in an interview. “That’s why we keep referencing Musk in our campaign.” Honeyman added that there are no plans to run ads mentioning Trump in the days leading up to the election.
The Democratic Party of Wisconsin has also been conducting a statewide town-hall tour named “People v. Musk,” where surrogates like Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz take the opportunity to criticize Musk and his initiatives.
During an event earlier this month in Eau Claire, Walz encouraged Wisconsin residents to use their Supreme Court ballots to express their discontent with Musk’s role in federal governance.
“Now is the time to send a message,” he stated, asserting that a victory for Crawford would signify a rejection of Musk and symbolize “cleaning house — step by step.”
“And the first step in the cleanup process starts with Wisconsin’s Supreme Court on April 1,” he added.
When addressing inquiries regarding attempts by the left to connect Schimel to Musk and to determine if Schimel was trying to align himself with Trump, Schimel campaign spokesperson Jacob Fischer stated in an email that “the efforts by Susan Crawford and the Democrats to distract Wisconsinites from her extreme perspectives and the radical billionaires funding her are hypocritical.”
Neither Musk’s representatives nor a White House spokesperson for Musk and his initiatives have provided comments in response to inquiries.
Polling indicates Musk’s popularity is declining
Recent polling data from Wisconsin and nationwide indicates that Musk’s strategies may be exhausting voters’ patience, making him a more favorable political target for Democrats than Trump.
Polling from Marquette University Law School this month revealed that a larger percentage of registered voters in Wisconsin (53%) viewed Musk unfavorably compared to those who viewed him favorably (41%). In contrast, opinions were more divided regarding Trump’s job performance, with 48% approving and 51% disapproving, along with perceptions of whether Musk’s efforts were appropriately aligned with Trump’s agenda (47% approved; 53% disapproved).
A national NBC News poll released recently produced similar results: 51% of voters held a negative view of Musk, while only 39% viewed him positively; moreover, 47% had negative feelings toward Musk’s initiatives compared to 41% positive. Trump’s job approval rating was closely split as well, with 47% approving and 51% disapproving.
Musk endorsed Schimel on X in January, shortly after Tesla filed a lawsuit in Wisconsin challenging a state law that prohibits car manufacturers from owning dealerships, a case that may ultimately reach the state Supreme Court.
This race has turned into the most expensive state Supreme Court campaign in U.S. history, surpassing a record set in Wisconsin in 2023, with outside groups having spent over $86 million to date.
Musk’s America PAC ranks as the top outside spender in this race, with $11.5 million spent so far — including $4.7 million since March 18 — mainly focusing on canvassing and mobilization efforts.
A nonprofit organization with GOP ties and previous associations with Musk, Building America’s Future, has also emerged as the third-largest outside spender in this race, with $4.8 million directed primarily toward digital advertising. While reports from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal have suggested Musk has previously funded this group, it’s unclear if he remains involved.
Attempts to reach spokespeople for America PAC and Building America’s Future for comments were unsuccessful.
Overall, though, Democrats enjoy a slight edge in advertising expenditures in this race, as evidenced by data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, showing Democrats outspending Republican-aligned groups $31.1 million to $26.4 million through Wednesday.
The bulk of the pro-Crawford ad budget is derived from her campaign, while most of the advertisements supporting Schimel come from outside groups. Overall, Crawford’s campaign reported expenditures exceeding $21 million as of March 17, in contrast to Schimel’s campaign, which reported $9.5 million.
In addition to the intense spending, early voting in the election has surged, having begun last week. In-person absentee voting has already surpassed the total for Wisconsin’s 2023 spring elections, and total absentee voting is on track to exceed levels seen in 2023 in the upcoming days.
Trump makes an unexpected entry
Even if he has not taken the spotlight, Trump has maintained a presence in Wisconsin’s campaign trail, as evidenced by a post he made on Truth Social last Friday urging early voting for Schimel.
Schimel’s campaign has released a television ad that aired on Wednesday highlighting Trump’s endorsement. Additionally, mailings from America PAC, for instance, promote Schimel as the candidate who will “support President Trump’s agenda.”
Moreover, two 30-second ads funded by the Republican State Leadership Committee — which works to promote GOP candidates in nonfederal statewide races — launched hours before Trump’s endorsement, emphasizing how Wisconsin voters recently aided Trump’s victory and cautioning that a Crawford win could jeopardize his achievements.
“Last year we supported Trump, and he won,” says a narrator in one of the ads. “President Trump needs us again.”
However, as per an NBC News analysis of AdImpact data, left-leaning groups have not yet run ads attempting to leverage Trump’s endorsement for strategic advantage.
Meanwhile, Schimel’s alignment with Trump has remained evident. He participated in a campaign town hall event this month alongside Donald Trump Jr. and recently conveyed to Turning Point USA canvassers that Trump requires a “support network” to help him contend with the numerous legal challenges faced during his administration. Schimel has also shown support for Trump’s unfounded claims regarding widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.
“Schimel relies on Trump to succeed. He needs every MAGA voter to show up to win,” noted GOP strategist Scholz. “He aims to draw closer to Trump.”
