More than 700,000 jobs would be at risk for EU companies exporting to Britain if the UK and Brussels fail to agree a trade deal this year, according to a leading German economic research institute.
In total, including companies outside the EU that export to the UK, there would be 1m potential job losses in a no-deal Brexit scenario, according to an unpublished report by the Halle Institute for Economic Research seen by the Financial Times.
The research, updating an initial report from February 2019, is still being peer reviewed and is due to be published in the coming weeks.
The scale of the job losses estimated by the research underline how much is at stake for both sides in the negotiations between London and Brussels, which are showing few signs of progress with time running out to sign a trade deal.
While the UK left the EU at the end of January 2020, it remains in the bloc’s customs union and single market until the end of this year. Unless a trade deal is agreed, customs checks and tariffs are expected to be introduced on trade between the EU and the UK next year.
Germany would suffer the biggest hit, the research said, predicting that in a no-deal Brexit Europe’s largest economy would have more than 176,000 potential job losses at companies exporting to the UK and their…